Club football · AI probability model

Ligue 1 predictions, table and team ratings 2026-27

82 Ligue 1 matches played this season, 3.05 goals per game; Paris Saint-Germain top the model's strength ranking. The 8 fixtures below each carry 1X2, correct-score, total-goals and HT/FT probabilities.

Data updated: 2026-11-07 16:20 UTC · Source: api-football

Upcoming match predictions

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
AuxerrevsParis FC
Home 20%Draw 24%Away 56%
Most likely score
1:1 11%
Expected total goals
2.89
Over / under 2.5
Over 55%

AI picks: Paris FC · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
Paris Saint-GermainvsTroyes
Home 82%Draw 12%Away 7%
Most likely score
2:0 11%
Expected total goals
3.61
Over / under 2.5
Over 70%

AI picks: Paris Saint-Germain · 2:0 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
RennesvsLille
Home 44%Draw 26%Away 30%
Most likely score
1:1 12%
Expected total goals
2.97
Over / under 2.5
Over 57%

AI picks: Rennes/Lille · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
AngersvsNice
Home 27%Draw 26%Away 46%
Most likely score
1:1 12%
Expected total goals
2.88
Over / under 2.5
Over 55%

AI picks: Angers/Nice · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
Le HavrevsLorient
Home 34%Draw 29%Away 38%
Most likely score
1:1 14%
Expected total goals
2.57
Over / under 2.5
Over 47%

AI picks: Le Havre/Lorient · 1:1 · Under 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Le MansvsMonaco
Home 21%Draw 23%Away 56%
Most likely score
1:1 11%
Expected total goals
3.10
Over / under 2.5
Over 60%

AI picks: Monaco · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
BrestvsLyon
Home 34%Draw 28%Away 38%
Most likely score
1:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.73
Over / under 2.5
Over 51%

AI picks: Brest/Lyon · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
LensvsMarseille
Home 42%Draw 25%Away 34%
Most likely score
1:1 11%
Expected total goals
3.30
Over / under 2.5
Over 64%

AI picks: Lens/Marseille · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Table · 2026-27

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsLast 5
1Paris Saint-Germain96212110+1120WWWWW
2Lille9531126+618WDDWL
3Lyon9522157+817WLWLW
4Paris FC95221610+617WLWLW
5Rennes95132019+116LWLWL
6Marseille95042013+715WWWWL
7Monaco94321210+215LDLDW
8Nice94231312+114WWLWW
9Lens94141613+313LWWWL
10Toulouse103431514+113WLDWD
11Brest93331612+412WLDWL
12Lorient933378-112LDWWL
13Strasbourg103161822-410LWLLL
14Auxerre93151323-1010LDWLW
15Angers9225917-88LDLLW
16Troyes9225716-98WDLLL
17Le Mans91441118-77LDLLW
18Le Havre9027920-112LLLLL

Model strength ratings

#TeamGoal-difference strengthAttack indexDefence index (lower is better)Expected goals +/−
1Paris Saint-Germain+1.421.640.682.43 / 1.01
2Lyon+0.371.080.831.60 / 1.23
3Monaco+0.361.130.891.68 / 1.31
4Lens+0.361.180.931.74 / 1.38
5Marseille+0.311.180.971.75 / 1.44
6Lille+0.300.960.761.43 / 1.13
7Paris FC+0.271.070.891.59 / 1.32
8Rennes+0.261.211.041.79 / 1.54
9Toulouse-0.010.991.001.47 / 1.48
10Nice-0.010.980.991.45 / 1.46
11Brest-0.100.961.021.42 / 1.52
12Strasbourg-0.201.001.131.48 / 1.68
13Lorient-0.230.750.901.11 / 1.33
14Auxerre-0.570.831.221.24 / 1.81
15Troyes-0.610.731.141.08 / 1.69
16Le Havre-0.620.801.221.19 / 1.81
17Le Mans-0.640.781.211.15 / 1.79
18Angers-0.670.741.191.09 / 1.76

Recent results: pre-match probability vs outcome

3/6Hit
Toulouse3 - 1Strasbourg
Home 45%Draw 25%Away 30%

AI picks: Toulouse/Strasbourg · 1:1 · Over 2.5

4/6Miss
Lorient0 - 2Brest
Home 39%Draw 30%Away 31%

AI picks: Lorient/Brest · 1:1 · Under 2.5

3/6Hit
Marseille2 - 0Toulouse
Home 50%Draw 24%Away 26%

AI picks: Marseille · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Hit
Paris FC3 - 1Monaco
Home 39%Draw 27%Away 34%

AI picks: Paris FC/Monaco · 1:1 · Over 2.5

5/6Hit
Lyon2 - 0Angers
Home 67%Draw 20%Away 13%

AI picks: Lyon · 2:0 · Over 2.5

3/6Hit
Strasbourg5 - 1Auxerre
Home 51%Draw 24%Away 25%

AI picks: Strasbourg · 1:1 · Over 2.5

4/6Hit
Troyes2 - 0Le Mans
Home 42%Draw 28%Away 30%

AI picks: Troyes/Le Mans · 1:1 · Under 2.5

3/6Hit
Lille1 - 0Lens
Home 36%Draw 29%Away 35%

AI picks: Lille/Lens · 1:1 · Under 2.5

3/6Miss
Nice5 - 2Rennes
Home 36%Draw 26%Away 37%

AI picks: Nice/Rennes · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Hit
Le Havre1 - 5Paris Saint-Germain
Home 11%Draw 15%Away 74%

AI picks: Paris Saint-Germain · 0:2 · Over 2.5

2026-27 · Matches 82 · 1X2 accuracy 56.1% · RPS 0.194

Season pick record by market

Play2026-27 · n=82
1X2 (match result)68.3%
1X2 (match result) · Confidence High77.8%
Handicap 1X248.8%
Correct score (top 2)23.2%
Total goals (top 2)45.1%
Half-time / full-time40.2%
Over / under 2.561.0%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

League season stats

Goals per game
3.05
Home wins
48.8%
Draws
23.2%
Away wins
28.1%
Over 2.5
59.8%
Both teams score
61.0%
Matches
82
HT / FT
40.8%

Total goals (0–7+)

0
7.3%
1
12.2%
2
20.7%
3
23.2%
4
20.7%
5
4.9%
6
3.7%
7+
7.3%

Half-time / full-time

H/H
32.9%
H/D
6.1%
H/A
3.7%
D/H
12.2%
D/D
14.6%
D/A
9.8%
A/H
3.7%
A/D
2.4%
A/A
14.6%