Ligue 1 · Matchday 10

Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Paris Saint-Germain

WWWWW

Troyes

WDLLL

Kick-off (UTC): Sat, Nov 7, 08:05 PM UTC · Model data as of 2026-11-07

Our forecast gives Paris Saint-Germain a 82% chance of winning, 12% for a draw and 7% for Troyes; the single most likely score is 2:0 (11%) with 3.61 total goals expected.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: High

1X2 (match result): Paris Saint-Germain; 82%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -2: Paris Saint-Germain; 41%
Correct score: 2:0 / 3:0; 22%
Total goals: 3 / 4 goals; 40%
Half-time / full-time: H/H; 57%
Over / under 2.5: Over; 70%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)

Paris Saint-Germain host Troyes in Ligue 1 Matchday 10 having won all of their last five games, including 2-0 v Lyon and 5-1 at Le Havre. PSG have eight days' rest, Troyes seven. The hosts are heavily rotated, without Hakimi, Dembélé, Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes, Kvaratskhelia and now Akliouche, yet their reserves have still been scoring freely. Troyes have the league's weakest attack and no points against top teams, with one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five.

Our published probabilities: PSG win 85%, draw 10%, Troyes win 5%. Expected goals are 3.19–0.73, and the most likely scores are 3:0 (11%), 2:0 (10%) and 4:0 (9%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 75% and both teams to score at 49%. The main uncertainty is a flatter PSG display after the rotation rather than a Troyes upset. The figures blend our model with the consensus of 22 bookmakers.

Written Fri, Nov 6, 11:06 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.

Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.

Probability data read (template)

The published probabilities favour Paris Saint-Germain (82%); expected goals Paris Saint-Germain 2.89 – 0.72 Troyes.
Goals look likely: 3.61 expected in total, 70% for over 2.5 and 48% for both teams to score.
The single most likely score is 2:0 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (57%).
Last five: Paris Saint-Germain WWWWW (5 wins), Troyes WDLLL (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Paris Saint-Germain 82%Draw 12%Troyes 7%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 22 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Paris Saint-Germain: 2.89
Expected goals · Troyes: 0.72
Most likely score: 2:0 (11%)
Half-time result: 60% / 30% / 9%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2	Paris Saint-Germain	Draw	Troyes
Home -3	22.8%	17.9%	59.3%
Home -2≈	40.7%	21.5%	37.8%
Home -1	62.2%	19.4%	18.4%
Home +1	93.4%	4.9%	1.7%
Home +2	98.3%	1.3%	0.3%
Home +3	99.7%	0.3%	0.1%

Model's balanced line: Home -2

Correct score

Paris Saint-Germain · Home

1:07.9%
2:011.3%
2:18.1%
3:010.9%
3:17.8%
3:22.8%
4:07.9%
4:15.7%
4:22.0%
5:04.5%
5:13.3%
5:21.2%
Other home win8.1%

Draw

0:02.6%
1:15.5%
2:22.9%
3:30.7%
Other draw0.1%

Troyes · Away

0:12.0%
0:20.7%
1:22.0%
0:30.2%
1:30.5%
2:30.7%
0:40.0%
1:40.1%
2:40.1%
0:50.0%
1:50.0%
2:50.0%
Other away win0.2%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

2.6%

10.0%

17.5%

21.2%

19.1%

13.8%

8.3%

7.4%

Over / under	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5
Over	87.4%	69.9%	48.7%	29.5%
Under	12.6%	30.1%	51.3%	70.5%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd: 40.2%
Over, even: 29.7%
Under, odd: 10.0%
Under, even: 20.2%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes: 48.4%
Both teams to score: No: 51.6%
Clean-sheet probability · Paris Saint-Germain: 48.7%
Clean-sheet probability · Troyes: 5.6%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team	0	1	2	3+
Paris Saint-Germain	5.6%	16.1%	23.2%	55.2%
Troyes	48.7%	35.0%	12.6%	3.7%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →	Home	Draw	Away
Home	H/H 57.3%	H/D 2.5%	H/A 0.5%
Draw	D/H 20.9%	D/D 6.8%	D/A 2.7%
Away	A/H 3.4%	A/D 2.5%	A/A 3.3%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Bookmaker odds (EU region)

Market consensus (margin removed): Paris Saint-Germain 81.6% · Draw 11.8% · Troyes 6.6% · 2.5+ 69.9%

Bookmaker	Home	Draw	Away	Over/Under	Asian handicap (home)
Pinnacle	1.18	8.38	15.47	3.5: 1.97 / 1.92	-2: 1.88 / 2.02
1xBet	1.22	7.80	14.70	3.5: 2.01 / 1.93	-2.5: 2.42 / 1.66
BetOnline.ag	1.17	8.65	16.00	3.5: 1.94 / 1.91	-2: 1.87 / 2.00
Coolbet	1.18	8.20	16.00	3.5: 2.02 / 1.87	-2: 1.90 / 1.98
GTbets	1.14	7.32	13.85	3.5: 1.95 / 1.83	-2.5: 2.29 / 1.60
Marathon Bet	1.20	7.70	14.50	3.5: 1.95 / 1.87	-2.5: 2.34 / 1.60
Betsson	1.16	7.40	14.50	2.5: 1.36 / 3.20	–
Codere (IT)	1.20	7.20	13.00	3.5: 1.82 / 1.85	–
LeoVegas (SE)	1.18	8.50	17.00	3.5: 1.85 / 1.89	–
Nordic Bet	1.17	7.40	15.00	2.5: 1.35 / 3.15	–
PMU (FR)	1.13	7.50	13.00	3.5: 1.76 / 1.80	–
Tipico	1.14	8.20	14.00	3.5: 1.80 / 1.93	–
Unibet (NL)	1.15	8.00	14.00	3.5: 1.85 / 1.89	–
Unibet (SE)	1.18	8.50	17.00	3.5: 1.88 / 1.93	–

Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC

Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 22 in the consensus.

Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.

Claude pre-match intel

Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.

PSG remain overwhelming favourites despite a heavily rotated side missing Hakimi, Dembélé, Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes, Kvaratskhelia and now Akliouche; most of these absences were already priced, and even their reserves have been scoring freely. Troyes arrive with the league's weakest attack and no points against top teams, so the main risk is a flatter PSG performance rather than a Troyes upset. We nudge the home probability and the over-2.5 line slightly below the market to reflect the fresh rotation news.

Paris Saint-Germain · Achraf Hakimi is rested until the international break on the club's own announcement; he is not injured. (moderate · butfootballclub.fr)
Paris Saint-Germain · Maghnes Akliouche is out with a calf injury picked up against Villarreal. (moderate · culturepsg.com)
Paris Saint-Germain · Dembélé, Marquinhos and Nuno Mendes are still out with thigh injuries. PSG's medical update says they have resumed individual training and should return after the international break. (major · foot-sur7.fr)
Paris Saint-Germain · Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is out long-term with a ruptured ACL and is expected to miss the rest of the season. (moderate · arabnews.com)
Paris Saint-Germain · Goalkeeper Alessandro Longoni is uncertain. He was in the Villarreal squad but did not make the match-day squad. (minor · culturepsg.com)
Paris Saint-Germain · PSG beat Villarreal 6-0 in the Champions League on 3 November and play before the international break, so heavy rotation and minutes for young players are expected. They lead Ligue 1 and are on a long winning run. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
Troyes · Yacouba Koné is out with a knee injury. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
Troyes · Timothé Nkada is doubtful with an adductor problem after coming off at half-time against Le Mans. Anis Ouzenadji trained normally and is expected back. (minor · culturepsg.com)

Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.

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