Ligue 1 Β· Matchday 9

Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Le Havre
LLLLD
1 - 5
HT 1-2
Paris Saint-Germain
WWWWW

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Le Havre win 11%, draw 15%, Paris Saint-Germain win 74%; the final score was 1:5.

Full time: Le Havre 1-5 Paris Saint-Germain. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Paris Saint-Germain" β€” correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultParis Saint-Germain73.9%most likely
Correct score1:52.6%#16 of 31
Total goals6 goals7.4%#6 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.566.8%most likely
Half-time/full-timeA/A49.4%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: High
1X2 (match result)Hit
Paris Saint-Germain
74%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +2Miss
Le Havre
48%
Correct scoreMiss
0:2 / 1:2
20%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
41%
Half-time / full-timeHit
A/A
49%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
67%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Paris Saint-Germain (74%); expected goals Le Havre 0.88 – 2.56 Paris Saint-Germain.
  • Goals look likely: 3.44 expected in total, 67% for over 2.5 and 54% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 0:2 (11%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (49%).
  • Last five: Le Havre LLLLD (0 wins), Paris Saint-Germain WWWWW (5 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Le Havre 11%Draw 15%Paris Saint-Germain 74%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· Le Havre
0.88
Expected goals Β· Paris Saint-Germain
2.56
Most likely score
0:2 (11%)
Half-time result
13% / 34% / 54%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Le HavreDrawParis Saint-Germain
Home -30.1%0.6%99.2%
Home -20.8%2.5%96.8%
Home -13.2%7.5%89.3%
Home +126.1%21.7%52.1%
Home +2β‰ˆ47.9%21.0%31.1%
Home +368.9%15.4%15.8%

Model's balanced line: Home +2

Correct score

Le Havre Β· Home
  • 1:02.9%
  • 2:01.2%
  • 2:13.2%
  • 3:00.4%
  • 3:10.9%
  • 3:21.2%
  • 4:00.1%
  • 4:10.2%
  • 4:20.3%
  • 5:00.0%
  • 5:10.0%
  • 5:20.0%
  • Other home win0.3%
Draw
  • 0:03.1%
  • 1:17.1%
  • 2:24.1%
  • 3:31.0%
  • Other draw0.2%
Paris Saint-Germain Β· Away
  • 0:18.3%
  • 0:210.5%
  • 1:29.2%
  • 0:39.0%
  • 1:37.9%
  • 2:33.5%
  • 0:45.8%
  • 1:45.1%
  • 2:42.2%
  • 0:53.0%
  • 1:52.6%
  • 2:51.1%
  • Other away win5.7%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
3.1%
1
11.2%
2
18.9%
3
21.8%
4
18.7%
5
12.9%
6
7.4%
7+
6.1%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over85.7%66.8%45.1%26.4%
Under14.3%33.2%54.9%73.6%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
38.9%
Over, even
27.9%
Under, odd
11.2%
Under, even
22.0%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
53.8%
Both teams to score: No
46.2%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Le Havre
7.7%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Paris Saint-Germain
41.6%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Le Havre41.6%36.5%16.0%5.9%
Paris Saint-Germain7.7%19.7%25.3%47.3%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
5.6%
H/D
3.4%
H/A
3.7%
Draw
D/H
4.3%
D/D
8.7%
D/A
20.8%
Away
A/H
0.9%
A/D
3.4%
A/A
49.4%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Le Havre

One of France's oldest clubs, nicknamed 'Ciel et Marine', based in Normandy and back in Ligue 1 since winning Ligue 2 in 2022–23, usually playing in the lower half of the table.

City
Le Havre, France
Stadium
Stade OcΓ©ane
Founded
1872
Head coach
Didier Digard

Paris Saint-Germain

Paris-based Ligue 1 club formed in 1970 and coached by Luis Enrique, who has led them to back-to-back Champions League titles in 2025 and 2026.

City
Paris, France
Stadium
Parc des Princes
Founded
1970
Head coach
Luis Enrique

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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