Club football · AI probability model

Primeira Liga predictions, table and team ratings 2026-27

91 Primeira Liga matches played this season, 2.66 goals per game; Benfica top the model's strength ranking. The 7 fixtures below each carry 1X2, correct-score, total-goals and HT/FT probabilities.

Data updated: 2026-11-07 16:20 UTC · Source: api-football

Upcoming match predictions

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
AlvercavsCasa Pia
Home 52%Draw 26%Away 21%
Most likely score
1:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.56
Over / under 2.5
Over 47%

AI picks: Alverca · 1:1 · Under 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
Sporting CPvsMoreirense
Home 84%Draw 11%Away 5%
Most likely score
2:0 13%
Expected total goals
3.43
Over / under 2.5
Over 67%

AI picks: Sporting CP · 2:0 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
EstorilvsMarítimo
Home 46%Draw 27%Away 27%
Most likely score
1:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.67
Over / under 2.5
Over 50%

AI picks: Estoril/Draw · 1:1 · Under 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
Santa ClaravsGil Vicente
Home 43%Draw 31%Away 27%
Most likely score
1:1 14%
Expected total goals
2.20
Over / under 2.5
Over 38%

AI picks: Santa Clara/Draw · 1:1 · Under 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Vitória GuimarãesvsFC Porto
Home 17%Draw 24%Away 59%
Most likely score
0:1 12%
Expected total goals
2.71
Over / under 2.5
Over 51%

AI picks: FC Porto · 0:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
Estrela AmadoravsBenfica
Home 8%Draw 14%Away 77%
Most likely score
0:2 11%
Expected total goals
3.48
Over / under 2.5
Over 67%

AI picks: Benfica · 0:2 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
Rio AvevsBraga
Home 16%Draw 23%Away 61%
Most likely score
0:1 11%
Expected total goals
2.79
Over / under 2.5
Over 53%

AI picks: Braga · 0:1 · Over 2.5

Table · 2026-27

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsLast 5
1FC Porto101000254+2130WWWWW
2Benfica10811278+1925WWWLW
3Sporting CP106312311+1221WLWDD
4Santa Clara10631156+921WLWDW
5Arouca11623138+520LWWWD
6Académico Viseu106221512+320WWWWW
7Gil Vicente1043387+115DLWWD
8Braga104241211+114WLLLD
9Moreirense104241317-414WWLDW
10Famalicão113441514+113WLWLW
11Alverca103251314-111LLWWW
12Estrela Amadora102441519-410LLLLD
13Vitória Guimarães10235101009DWLDL
14Marítimo10226921-128LLLDL
15Nacional102171019-97LWLLL
16Rio Ave10217923-147LLWLD
17Casa Pia10217519-147LWLWL
18Estoril10028519-142LLLLL

Model strength ratings

#TeamGoal-difference strengthAttack indexDefence index (lower is better)Expected goals +/−
1Benfica+1.561.820.652.43 / 0.87
2FC Porto+1.281.530.572.04 / 0.76
3Sporting CP+1.101.580.762.12 / 1.01
4Braga+0.441.120.791.50 / 1.06
5Vitória Guimarães+0.120.980.891.31 / 1.19
6Santa Clara+0.080.900.841.20 / 1.13
7Famalicão+0.030.970.951.30 / 1.27
8Arouca-0.100.880.951.17 / 1.27
9Gil Vicente-0.100.810.891.09 / 1.19
10Académico Viseu-0.130.931.031.25 / 1.37
11Alverca-0.170.921.051.22 / 1.40
12Estrela Amadora-0.450.871.211.17 / 1.62
13Moreirense-0.520.801.191.07 / 1.59
14Estoril-0.550.831.241.11 / 1.65
15Marítimo-0.600.791.241.05 / 1.65
16Nacional-0.650.771.251.03 / 1.67
17Casa Pia-0.660.691.180.92 / 1.58
18Rio Ave-0.690.801.321.07 / 1.76

Recent results: pre-match probability vs outcome

4/6Hit
Famalicão1 - 0Arouca
Home 47%Draw 23%Away 31%

AI picks: Famalicão/Arouca · 1:0 · Under 2.5

1/6Hit
Benfica1 - 0Alverca
Home 83%Draw 10%Away 6%

AI picks: Benfica · 3:0 · Over 2.5

2/6Miss
Gil Vicente0 - 0Vitória Guimarães
Home 32%Draw 30%Away 39%

AI picks: Gil Vicente/Vitória Guimarães · 1:1 · Under 2.5

2/6Hit
Braga3 - 0Famalicão
Home 54%Draw 26%Away 20%

AI picks: Braga · 1:1 · Under 2.5

4/6Hit
Marítimo0 - 2Santa Clara
Home 30%Draw 30%Away 40%

AI picks: Draw/Santa Clara · 1:1 · Under 2.5

3/6Hit
Académico Viseu2 - 1Rio Ave
Home 50%Draw 26%Away 23%

AI picks: Académico Viseu · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Hit
Arouca1 - 0Nacional
Home 58%Draw 24%Away 18%

AI picks: Arouca · 1:1 · Over 2.5

4/6Hit
FC Porto4 - 0Estoril
Home 83%Draw 12%Away 6%

AI picks: FC Porto · 2:0 · Over 2.5

3/6Miss
Moreirense2 - 1Estrela Amadora
Home 34%Draw 29%Away 38%

AI picks: Moreirense/Estrela Amadora · 1:1 · Under 2.5

5/6Hit
Casa Pia0 - 2Sporting CP
Home 11%Draw 17%Away 71%

AI picks: Sporting CP · 0:2 · Over 2.5

2026-27 · Matches 91 · 1X2 accuracy 53.8% · RPS 0.193

Season pick record by market

Play2026-27 · n=91
1X2 (match result)71.4%
1X2 (match result) · Confidence High69.7%
Handicap 1X247.3%
Correct score (top 2)23.1%
Total goals (top 2)50.5%
Half-time / full-time27.5%
Over / under 2.550.5%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

League season stats

Goals per game
2.66
Home wins
40.7%
Draws
20.9%
Away wins
38.5%
Over 2.5
53.8%
Both teams score
46.2%
Matches
91
HT / FT
41.7%

Total goals (0–7+)

0
5.5%
1
22.0%
2
18.7%
3
20.9%
4
24.2%
5
6.6%
6
1.1%
7+
1.1%

Half-time / full-time

H/H
20.9%
H/D
3.3%
H/A
4.4%
D/H
18.7%
D/D
14.3%
D/A
12.1%
A/H
1.1%
A/D
3.3%
A/A
22.0%