Primeira Liga · Matchday 11

Vitória Guimarães vs FC Porto prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Vitória Guimarães

DWLDL

FC Porto

WWWWW

Kick-off (UTC): Sun, Nov 8, 06:00 PM UTC · Model data as of 2026-11-07

Our forecast gives Vitória Guimarães a 17% chance of winning, 24% for a draw and 59% for FC Porto; the single most likely score is 0:1 (12%) with 2.71 total goals expected.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium

1X2 (match result): FC Porto; 59%
Handicap 1X2 · Home +1: Vitória Guimarães; 41%
Correct score: 0:1 / 1:1; 23%
Total goals: 2 / 3 goals; 47%
Half-time / full-time: A/A; 35%
Over / under 2.5: Over; 51%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)

Vitória Guimarães host FC Porto in Primeira Liga round 11 after a mixed run: one win (5-0 v Marítimo), two draws and two defeats in their last five, the latest a 0-0 at Gil Vicente. Porto arrive having won all five, including 3-1 against Benfica, and have had eight days' rest to Vitória's six. Team news could not be collected. Porto won three of the last four meetings, with one draw.

The published probabilities, the market consensus of 20 bookmakers, make Porto favourites at 59%, with a draw at 24% and a Vitória win at 17%. Expected goals are 0.89–1.82, and the most likely scores are 0:1 (12%), 1:1 (11%) and 0:2 (11%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 51% and both teams scoring at 50%, so goals look close to a coin flip.

Written Sat, Nov 7, 04:24 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.

Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.

Probability data read (template)

The published probabilities favour FC Porto (59%); expected goals Vitória Guimarães 0.89 – 1.82 FC Porto.
2.71 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 51%).
The single most likely score is 0:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (35%).
Last five: Vitória Guimarães DWLDL (1 wins), FC Porto WWWWW (5 wins).
Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Vitória Guimarães 1 wins, 1 draws, FC Porto 4 wins.

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Vitória Guimarães 17%Draw 24%FC Porto 59%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 20 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Vitória Guimarães: 0.89
Expected goals · FC Porto: 1.82
Most likely score: 0:1 (12%)
Half-time result: 16% / 44% / 40%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2	Vitória Guimarães	Draw	FC Porto
Home -3	0.3%	1.1%	98.6%
Home -2	1.4%	4.3%	94.2%
Home -1	5.8%	11.7%	82.6%
Home +1≈	41.0%	24.5%	34.5%
Home +2	65.5%	18.4%	16.1%
Home +3	83.9%	9.9%	6.2%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Vitória Guimarães · Home

1:05.4%
2:02.6%
2:14.8%
3:00.8%
3:11.4%
3:21.3%
4:00.2%
4:10.3%
4:20.3%
5:00.0%
5:10.1%
5:20.1%
Other home win0.2%

Draw

0:07.1%
1:111.2%
2:24.3%
3:30.8%
Other draw0.1%

FC Porto · Away

0:111.7%
0:211.1%
1:29.8%
0:36.7%
1:36.0%
2:32.6%
0:43.1%
1:42.7%
2:41.2%
0:51.1%
1:51.0%
2:50.4%
Other away win1.6%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

7.1%

17.1%

24.9%

22.1%

14.9%

8.1%

3.6%

2.1%

Over / under	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5
Over	75.7%	50.8%	28.7%	13.8%
Under	24.3%	49.2%	71.3%	86.2%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd: 31.7%
Over, even: 19.1%
Under, odd: 17.1%
Under, even: 32.1%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes: 49.7%
Both teams to score: No: 50.3%
Clean-sheet probability · Vitória Guimarães: 16.2%
Clean-sheet probability · FC Porto: 41.2%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team	0	1	2	3+
Vitória Guimarães	41.2%	36.5%	16.2%	6.1%
FC Porto	16.2%	29.5%	26.8%	27.5%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →	Home	Draw	Away
Home	H/H 8.7%	H/D 4.4%	H/A 3.0%
Draw	D/H 7.5%	D/D 14.8%	D/A 21.3%
Away	A/H 1.2%	A/D 4.4%	A/A 34.7%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Bookmaker odds (EU region)

Market consensus (margin removed): Vitória Guimarães 17.4% · Draw 23.6% · FC Porto 59.0% · 2.5+ 50.8%

Bookmaker	Home	Draw	Away	Over/Under	Asian handicap (home)
Pinnacle	5.30	4.15	1.61	2.5: 1.92 / 1.93	+1: 1.79 / 2.10
BetOnline.ag	5.00	4.00	1.60	2.5: 1.84 / 1.90	+0.75: 2.01 / 1.75
Coolbet	5.50	4.00	1.62	2.5: 1.87 / 1.90	+1: 1.76 / 2.03
GTbets	5.09	3.87	1.62	2.5: 1.82 / 1.96	+0.5: 2.27 / 1.60
Marathon Bet	5.10	3.88	1.61	2.5: 1.84 / 1.90	+1: 1.71 / 2.04
Matchbook	5.80	4.20	1.61	2.5: 1.92 / 1.99	+1: 1.81 / 2.08
Betsson	5.40	3.85	1.58	2.5: 1.85 / 1.88	–
LeoVegas (SE)	5.60	3.75	1.49	2.5: 1.82 / 1.83	–
Nordic Bet	5.40	3.85	1.58	2.5: 1.85 / 1.88	–
PMU (FR)	5.50	3.70	1.47	2.5: 1.75 / 1.77	–
Tipico	5.70	4.00	1.55	2.5: 1.80 / 1.95	–
Unibet (NL)	5.60	3.75	1.50	2.5: 1.83 / 1.85	–
Unibet (SE)	5.60	3.75	1.50	2.5: 1.83 / 1.85	–
William Hill	5.00	3.80	1.62	2.5: 1.75 / 1.95	–

Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC

Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 20 in the consensus.

Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.

Claude pre-match intel

Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.

Porto come to Guimarães in excellent form, having won five in a row including a 3-1 over Benfica, while Vitória have mixed a 5-0 home rout with several flat results. Claude's view is that nothing in the available information — team news could not be collected — justifies departing from the bookmaker consensus, which rates Porto as clear favourites and this as a coin-flip on goals. Vitória's home strength makes an upset possible but not probable.

Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.

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