Primeira Liga · Matchday 10
Braga vs Famalicão prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Braga win 54%, draw 26%, Famalicão win 20%; the final score was 3:0.
Full time: Braga 3-0 Famalicão. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Braga" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Braga | 54.0% | most likely |
| Correct score | 3:0 | 5.7% | #7 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 21.8% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.8% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 18.8% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Braga
- 54%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
- Famalicão
- 46%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 24%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 32%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Under
- 51%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Braga (54%); expected goals Braga 1.68 – 0.94 Famalicão.
- 2.63 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 49%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (32%).
- Last five: Braga LLLDW (1 wins), Famalicão WLWDD (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Braga
- 1.68
- Expected goals · Famalicão
- 0.94
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 39% / 43% / 18%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Braga | Draw | Famalicão |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.7% | 8.4% | 86.9% |
| Home -2 | 13.1% | 16.8% | 70.1% |
| Home -1≈ | 29.9% | 24.0% | 46.0% |
| Home +1 | 79.6% | 13.2% | 7.2% |
| Home +2 | 92.8% | 5.3% | 1.9% |
| Home +3 | 98.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:011.4%
- 2:010.2%
- 2:19.7%
- 3:05.7%
- 3:15.4%
- 3:22.6%
- 4:02.4%
- 4:12.3%
- 4:21.1%
- 5:00.8%
- 5:10.8%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.2%
- 0:08.0%
- 1:112.2%
- 2:24.6%
- 3:30.8%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:16.1%
- 0:23.2%
- 1:25.4%
- 0:31.0%
- 1:31.7%
- 2:31.4%
- 0:40.2%
- 1:40.4%
- 2:40.3%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.3%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 74.5% | 48.8% | 27.0% | 12.6% |
| Under | 25.5% | 51.2% | 73.0% | 87.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 30.7%
- Over, even
- 18.1%
- Under, odd
- 17.6%
- Under, even
- 33.6%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 50.5%
- Both teams to score: No
- 49.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · Braga
- 38.9%
- Clean-sheet probability · Famalicão
- 18.6%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braga | 18.6% | 31.3% | 26.3% | 23.8% |
| Famalicão | 38.9% | 36.7% | 17.3% | 7.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 32.5% | H/D 4.8% | H/A 1.3% |
| Draw | D/H 18.8% | D/D 16.0% | D/A 8.3% |
| Away | A/H 2.7% | A/D 4.8% | A/A 10.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Braga
Braga are a Minho-based club known as the Arsenalistas for their red home kit, and they are regular challengers just behind Portugal's big three. They finished 4th in the 2025–26 Primeira Liga and reached the Europa League semi-finals.
- City
- Braga, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio Municipal de Braga
- Founded
- 1921
Famalicão
A club from northern Portugal that returned to the Primeira Liga in 2019 and now competes as an established top-flight side, with foreign investment in its ownership.
- City
- Vila Nova de Famalicão, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho
- Founded
- 1931
- Head coach
- Ricardo Silva
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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