Primeira Liga · Matchday 10

Marítimo vs Santa Clara prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Marítimo
LLDLL
0 - 2
HT 0-1
Santa Clara
LWDWW

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Marítimo win 30%, draw 30%, Santa Clara win 40%; the final score was 0:2.

Full time: Marítimo 0-2 Santa Clara. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Santa Clara" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultSanta Clara39.9%most likely
Correct score0:27.8%#6 of 31
Total goals2 goals27.5%most likely
Over/under 2.5Under 2.559.6%most likely
Half-time/full-timeA/A22.5%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
1X2 (match result)Hit
Draw / Santa Clara
70%
Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Miss
Marítimo
60%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 0:1
26%
Total goalsHit
1 / 2 goals
49%
Half-time / full-timeHit
A/A
22%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Under
60%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • Evenly matched: Marítimo 30%, draw 30%, Santa Clara 40% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
  • A tight game is the base case: 2.30 goals expected, 60% for under 2.5.
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (22%).
  • Last five: Marítimo LLDLL (0 wins), Santa Clara LWDWW (3 wins).
  • A 30% draw probability is on the high side — the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Marítimo 30%Draw 30%Santa Clara 40%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Marítimo
1.05
Expected goals · Santa Clara
1.25
Most likely score
1:1 (14%)
Half-time result
23% / 47% / 29%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2MarítimoDrawSanta Clara
Home -30.8%2.7%96.5%
Home -23.5%8.4%88.1%
Home -111.9%18.2%69.9%
Home +1≈60.1%21.8%18.1%
Home +281.9%11.9%6.2%
Home +393.8%4.5%1.7%

Model's balanced line: Home +1

Correct score

Marítimo · Home
  • 1:09.6%
  • 2:05.5%
  • 2:16.9%
  • 3:01.9%
  • 3:12.4%
  • 3:21.5%
  • 4:00.5%
  • 4:10.6%
  • 4:20.4%
  • 5:00.1%
  • 5:10.1%
  • 5:20.1%
  • Other home win0.3%
Draw
  • 0:011.0%
  • 1:114.1%
  • 2:24.3%
  • 3:30.6%
  • Other draw0.1%
Santa Clara · Away
  • 0:111.6%
  • 0:27.8%
  • 1:28.2%
  • 0:33.3%
  • 1:33.4%
  • 2:31.8%
  • 0:41.0%
  • 1:41.1%
  • 2:40.6%
  • 0:50.3%
  • 1:50.3%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.4%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
11.0%
1
21.2%
2
27.5%
3
20.3%
4
11.7%
5
5.4%
6
2.1%
7+
0.9%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over67.9%40.4%20.1%8.4%
Under32.1%59.6%79.9%91.6%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
26.4%
Over, even
14.0%
Under, odd
21.2%
Under, even
38.4%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
47.3%
Both teams to score: No
52.7%
Clean-sheet probability · Marítimo
28.7%
Clean-sheet probability · Santa Clara
35.0%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Marítimo35.0%36.7%19.3%9.0%
Santa Clara28.7%35.8%22.4%13.1%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
16.3%
H/D
5.1%
H/A
2.0%
Draw
D/H
12.2%
D/D
19.8%
D/A
15.5%
Away
A/H
1.6%
A/D
5.1%
A/A
22.5%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Marítimo

Funchal-based club from Madeira, nicknamed the Barreiros side, who won the 2025–26 Segunda Liga title and are back in the Primeira Liga in 2026–27 after three years away.

City
Funchal, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio do Marítimo (Estádio dos Barreiros)
Founded
1910
Head coach
Mitchell van der Gaag

Santa Clara

Santa Clara, from Ponta Delgada in the Azores, is the only Azorean club to have played in Portugal's top flight.

City
Ponta Delgada, Portugal
Stadium
Estádio de São Miguel
Founded
1921
Head coach
Petit

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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