Primeira Liga · Matchday 10
Gil Vicente vs Vitória Guimarães prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Gil Vicente win 32%, draw 30%, Vitória Guimarães win 39%; the final score was 0:0.
Full time: Gil Vicente 0-0 Vitória Guimarães. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Vitória Guimarães" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Draw | 29.6% | #3 of 3 |
| Correct score | 0:0 | 9.6% | #3 of 31 |
| Total goals | 0 goals | 9.6% | #5 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.5% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/D | 18.8% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Gil Vicente / Vitória Guimarães
- 70%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Hit
- Gil Vicente
- 61%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 0:1
- 24%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 21%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Under
- 55%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Gil Vicente 32%, draw 30%, Vitória Guimarães 39% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.49 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 45%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (21%).
- Last five: Gil Vicente LWWDL (2 wins), Vitória Guimarães WLDLD (1 wins).
- A 30% draw probability is on the high side — the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Gil Vicente
- 1.18
- Expected goals · Vitória Guimarães
- 1.32
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 24% / 47% / 28%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Gil Vicente | Draw | Vitória Guimarães |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.1% | 3.2% | 95.6% |
| Home -2 | 4.4% | 9.3% | 86.3% |
| Home -1 | 13.7% | 18.1% | 68.2% |
| Home +1≈ | 61.4% | 20.5% | 18.1% |
| Home +2 | 81.9% | 11.7% | 6.4% |
| Home +3 | 93.6% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:08.4%
- 2:05.7%
- 2:17.5%
- 3:02.2%
- 3:12.9%
- 3:21.9%
- 4:00.7%
- 4:10.9%
- 4:20.6%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.2%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.5%
- 0:09.6%
- 1:114.1%
- 2:25.0%
- 3:30.9%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:19.6%
- 0:27.2%
- 1:28.4%
- 0:33.2%
- 1:33.7%
- 2:32.2%
- 0:41.0%
- 1:41.2%
- 2:40.7%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.6%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72.5% | 45.5% | 24.1% | 10.8% |
| Under | 27.5% | 54.5% | 75.9% | 89.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 29.1%
- Over, even
- 16.4%
- Under, odd
- 18.0%
- Under, even
- 36.5%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 52.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 48.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Gil Vicente
- 26.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Vitória Guimarães
- 30.9%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Vicente | 30.9% | 36.3% | 21.3% | 11.5% |
| Vitória Guimarães | 26.7% | 35.3% | 23.3% | 14.7% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 16.9% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 2.2% |
| Draw | D/H 13.0% | D/D 18.8% | D/A 15.4% |
| Away | A/H 1.9% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 21.0% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Gil Vicente
Gil Vicente, nicknamed the Galos (Roosters), is a club from Barcelos in northern Portugal that plays in the Primeira Liga and is usually seen as a mid-table side.
- City
- Barcelos, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio Cidade de Barcelos
- Founded
- 1924
Vitória Guimarães
Guimarães-based club nicknamed "Os Conquistadores", a regular Primeira Liga side known for its passionate home support at the Estádio D. Afonso Henriques.
- City
- Guimarães, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio D. Afonso Henriques
- Founded
- 1922
- Head coach
- Tiago Margarido
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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