Primeira Liga · Matchday 11
Sporting CP vs Moreirense prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Sporting CP a 84% chance of winning, 11% for a draw and 5% for Moreirense; the single most likely score is 2:0 (13%) with 3.43 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)
- Sporting CP
- 84%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -2
- Sporting CP
- 42%
- Correct score
- 2:0 / 3:0
- 25%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 41%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 57%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 67%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Sporting CP begin the Paulo Fonseca era at Alvalade after eight days of rest, with Zalazar and Irankunda back but Debast and Nuno Santos still out. Their last five read W-L-W-D-D. Moreirense, on seven days' rest, have won three of their last five, but they are without Bondoso, Parsemain and Domingues, which means a first start for Álvaro Martínez at left-back.
The published probabilities make Sporting clear favourites at 82%, with a 12% draw and 6% for Moreirense. Expected goals are 2.80–0.65, and the likeliest scores are 2:0 and 3:0 (12% each) and 1:0 (9%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 67%, and both teams scoring at 45%.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 11:06 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Sporting CP (84%); expected goals Sporting CP 2.84 – 0.59 Moreirense.
- Goals look likely: 3.43 expected in total, 67% for over 2.5 and 42% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:0 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (57%).
- Last five: Sporting CP WLWDD (2 wins), Moreirense WWLDW (3 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Sporting CP 5 wins, 0 draws, Moreirense 1 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 19 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Sporting CP
- 2.84
- Expected goals · Moreirense
- 0.59
- Most likely score
- 2:0 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 60% / 33% / 8%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Sporting CP | Draw | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 23.5% | 18.5% | 58.0% |
| Home -2≈ | 42.0% | 22.1% | 36.0% |
| Home -1 | 64.0% | 19.6% | 16.4% |
| Home +1 | 94.6% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Home +2 | 98.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Home +3 | 99.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Model's balanced line: Home -2
Correct score
- 1:09.4%
- 2:013.0%
- 2:17.7%
- 3:012.4%
- 3:17.3%
- 3:22.2%
- 4:08.8%
- 4:15.2%
- 4:21.5%
- 5:05.0%
- 5:13.0%
- 5:20.9%
- Other home win7.4%
- 0:03.0%
- 1:15.2%
- 2:22.3%
- 3:30.4%
- Other draw0.0%
- 0:12.1%
- 0:20.6%
- 1:21.6%
- 0:30.1%
- 1:30.3%
- 2:30.4%
- 0:40.0%
- 1:40.0%
- 2:40.1%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.0%
- 2:50.0%
- Other away win0.1%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 85.5% | 66.7% | 44.9% | 26.2% |
| Under | 14.5% | 33.3% | 55.1% | 73.8% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 38.9%
- Over, even
- 27.8%
- Under, odd
- 11.5%
- Under, even
- 21.8%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 41.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 58.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · Sporting CP
- 55.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · Moreirense
- 5.8%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | 5.8% | 16.6% | 23.5% | 54.1% |
| Moreirense | 55.4% | 32.7% | 9.7% | 2.2% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 57.1% | H/D 2.1% | H/A 0.4% |
| Draw | D/H 23.5% | D/D 6.8% | D/A 2.4% |
| Away | A/H 3.1% | A/D 2.1% | A/A 2.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Sporting CP 83.6% · Draw 11.0% · Moreirense 5.4% · 2.5+ 66.7%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.13 | 10.10 | 20.13 | 3.25: 1.88 / 2.00 | -2.25: 1.92 / 1.97 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.12 | 9.40 | 15.50 | 3.25: 1.84 / 1.93 | -2.25: 1.90 / 1.92 |
| Coolbet | 1.14 | 8.75 | 22.50 | 3.5: 2.01 / 1.78 | -2.5: 2.03 / 1.76 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.11 | 8.50 | 17.75 | 3.5: 1.99 / 1.76 | -2: 1.65 / 2.14 |
| Matchbook | 1.14 | 9.80 | 23.00 | 3.5: 2.16 / 1.79 | -2.25: 1.92 / 1.98 |
| Betsson | 1.10 | 8.40 | 20.00 | 2.5: 1.00 / 2.90 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.11 | 7.50 | 15.00 | 3.5: 1.92 / 1.75 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 1.10 | 8.40 | 20.00 | 2.5: 1.00 / 2.90 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 1.09 | 7.50 | 15.00 | 3.5: 1.83 / 1.68 | – |
| Tipico | 1.09 | 10.00 | 19.00 | 3.5: 1.93 / 1.80 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.11 | 7.50 | 15.00 | 3.5: 1.93 / 1.76 | – |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.11 | 7.50 | 15.00 | 3.5: 1.93 / 1.76 | – |
| William Hill | 1.12 | 9.00 | 17.00 | 2.5: 1.40 / 2.80 | – |
| 888sport | 1.12 | 9.00 | 17.00 | – | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 19 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Sporting start the Paulo Fonseca era as heavy favourites at Alvalade, with Zalazar and Irankunda back but Debast and Nuno Santos still out. Moreirense arrive in decent form yet are missing Bondoso, Parsemain and Domingues, forcing a first start for Álvaro Martínez at left-back. All of this was reported days ago and is already in the bookmaker prices, so we stay in line with the consensus and expect a goal-rich home win as the most likely outcome.
- Sporting CP · Paulo Fonseca makes his first appearance in charge of Sporting after replacing Rui Borges. Tiago Fernandes had been in interim charge for the Champions League game. (moderate · flashscore.pt)
- Sporting CP · Defenders Nuno Santos and Zeno Debast are still injured and will not be options. (moderate · flashscore.pt)
- Sporting CP · Rodrigo Zalazar is back from injury. Nestory Irankunda and Luis Guilherme are expected to return to the squad. (minor · whoscored.com)
- Sporting CP · Sporting played in the Champions League earlier in the week (Tuesday), so some rotation is possible. Fonseca is expected to go back to a 4-2-3-1. (minor · flashscore.pt)
- Moreirense · Kiko Bondoso and Alexandre Parsemain are injured and have been ruled out of the trip to Alvalade. (moderate · abola.pt)
- Moreirense · Left-back Francisco Domingues has a muscle tear and is out for four to six weeks. He will miss Sporting, Santa Clara and Alverca. (moderate · ojogo.pt)
- Moreirense · Álvaro Martínez is set to replace Domingues at left-back and make a first start. Landerson should keep Bondoso's place on the right wing. (minor · ojogo.pt)
- Moreirense · Manuel Mendonça (back pain) and João Veloso are doubts and needed reassessment. Mendonça is reported to be progressing towards a return, and Veloso is reported as still recovering and not in the travelling plans. (minor · abola.pt)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Sporting CP
Lisbon-based club and one of Portugal's traditional "Big Three", Sporting won the Primeira Liga title in 2023–24 and 2024–25 and are known for their youth academy.
- City
- Lisbon, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio José Alvalade
- Founded
- 1906
Moreirense
A small-town club from Moreira de Cónegos that won the 2016–17 Taça da Liga and finished 7th in the 2025–26 Primeira Liga.
- City
- Moreira de Cónegos (Guimarães), Portugal
- Stadium
- Parque de Jogos Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
- Founded
- 1938
- Head coach
- Vasco Botelho da Costa
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Sporting CP
- W@ Casa Pia2-0 · 10-30
- LAcadémico Viseu1-2 · 10-25
- W@ Braga3-1 · 10-09
- DArouca2-2 · 09-19
- D@ Famalicão1-1 · 09-13
Moreirense
- WEstrela Amadora2-1 · 10-31
- W@ Estoril3-1 · 10-25
- LGil Vicente0-1 · 10-09
- D@ Vitória Guimarães1-1 · 09-20
- WMarítimo3-1 · 09-14
Sporting CP 8 days rest · Moreirense 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-02-21Moreirense 0-3 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 2025-09-22Sporting CP 3-0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 2025-04-18Sporting CP 3-1 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
- 2024-12-05Moreirense 2-1 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 2024-02-19Moreirense 0-2 Sporting CPPrimeira Liga
- 2023-09-17Sporting CP 3-0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
Market & China Sports Lottery guide → · League page: Primeira Liga →