Primeira Liga · Matchday 10
Benfica vs Alverca prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Benfica win 83%, draw 10%, Alverca win 6%; the final score was 1:0.
Full time: Benfica 1-0 Alverca. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Benfica" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Benfica | 83.5% | most likely |
| Correct score | 1:0 | 5.8% | #8 of 31 |
| Total goals | 1 goals | 7.3% | #7 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 23.4% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 21.1% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Benfica
- 83%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -2Miss
- Benfica
- 46%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 3:0 / 2:0
- 19%
- Total goalsMiss
- 3 / 4 goals
- 39%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 59%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 77%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Benfica (83%); expected goals Benfica 3.22 – 0.81 Alverca.
- Goals look likely: 4.03 expected in total, 77% for over 2.5 and 53% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 3:0 (10%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (59%).
- Last five: Benfica WWLWW (4 wins), Alverca LWWWL (3 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Benfica
- 3.22
- Expected goals · Alverca
- 0.81
- Most likely score
- 3:0 (10%)
- Half-time result
- 61% / 29% / 9%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Benfica | Draw | Alverca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 27.5% | 18.3% | 54.2% |
| Home -2≈ | 45.8% | 20.4% | 33.8% |
| Home -1 | 66.2% | 17.3% | 16.5% |
| Home +1 | 93.9% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| Home +2 | 98.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Home +3 | 99.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -2
Correct score
- 1:05.8%
- 2:09.2%
- 2:17.5%
- 3:09.9%
- 3:18.0%
- 3:23.3%
- 4:07.9%
- 4:16.4%
- 4:22.6%
- 5:05.1%
- 5:14.1%
- 5:21.7%
- Other home win11.9%
- 0:01.7%
- 1:14.6%
- 2:23.0%
- 3:30.9%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:11.5%
- 0:20.6%
- 1:21.9%
- 0:30.2%
- 1:30.5%
- 2:30.8%
- 0:40.0%
- 1:40.1%
- 2:40.2%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.0%
- 2:50.0%
- Other away win0.3%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 91.0% | 76.6% | 57.2% | 37.6% |
| Under | 9.0% | 23.4% | 42.8% | 62.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 42.8%
- Over, even
- 33.8%
- Under, odd
- 7.3%
- Under, even
- 16.2%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 53.4%
- Both teams to score: No
- 46.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · Benfica
- 44.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · Alverca
- 4.0%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 4.0% | 12.9% | 20.8% | 62.3% |
| Alverca | 44.4% | 36.1% | 14.7% | 4.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 58.5% | H/D 2.4% | H/A 0.6% |
| Draw | D/H 21.1% | D/D 5.7% | D/A 2.5% |
| Away | A/H 3.9% | A/D 2.4% | A/A 3.0% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Benfica
Lisbon-based Portuguese giant and one of the "Big Three" in the Primeira Liga, known for its youth development and attacking football; it finished third in the league last season and is now coached by Marco Silva.
- City
- Lisbon, Portugal
- Stadium
- Estádio da Luz
- Founded
- 1904
- Head coach
- Marco Silva
Alverca
Futebol Clube de Alverca is a club from the Lisbon area that returned to the Primeira Liga in 2025–26, finishing 11th in its first season back; Vinícius Júnior is a majority owner.
- City
- Alverca do Ribatejo, Portugal
- Stadium
- Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
- Founded
- 1939
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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