Club football · AI probability model

Serie A predictions, table and team ratings 2026-27

103 Serie A matches played this season, 3.15 goals per game; Inter top the model's strength ranking. The 7 fixtures below each carry 1X2, correct-score, total-goals and HT/FT probabilities.

Data updated: 2026-11-07 16:20 UTC · Source: api-football

Upcoming match predictions

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
ParmavsBologna
Home 19%Draw 27%Away 55%
Most likely score
0:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.46
Over / under 2.5
Over 45%

AI picks: Bologna · 0:1 · Under 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
RomavsSassuolo
Home 71%Draw 17%Away 12%
Most likely score
2:0 10%
Expected total goals
3.48
Over / under 2.5
Over 68%

AI picks: Roma · 2:0 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
NapolivsLazio
Home 41%Draw 27%Away 32%
Most likely score
1:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.89
Over / under 2.5
Over 55%

AI picks: Napoli/Lazio · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
GenoavsAC Milan
Home 21%Draw 27%Away 52%
Most likely score
1:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.51
Over / under 2.5
Over 46%

AI picks: AC Milan · 1:1 · Under 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
MonzavsAtalanta
Home 29%Draw 25%Away 46%
Most likely score
1:1 12%
Expected total goals
3.13
Over / under 2.5
Over 61%

AI picks: Monza/Atalanta · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
IntervsComo
Home 50%Draw 23%Away 26%
Most likely score
1:1 10%
Expected total goals
3.29
Over / under 2.5
Over 64%

AI picks: Inter · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
FiorentinavsJuventus
Home 28%Draw 27%Away 45%
Most likely score
1:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.82
Over / under 2.5
Over 54%

AI picks: Fiorentina/Juventus · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Table · 2026-27

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsLast 5
1Lazio10910248+1628WWWWW
2Inter108112613+1325LWWWW
3Roma107302810+1824WWDWD
4Como10721188+1023WWWWD
5AC Milan106312112+921WLWWD
6Frosinone116232415+920LWWDW
7Juventus105231310+317WLWLD
8Cagliari115151015-516WLLLL
9Napoli104241713+414LWDLW
10Bologna104241413+114WWWLW
11Torino114251517-214DLLWW
12Genoa104151014-413WWWLW
13Atalanta103251620-411LDDLW
14Lecce113171222-1010DLLLW
15Parma10226815-78WDLLL
16Fiorentina102261523-88WDLLL
17Sassuolo102261626-108LLLLD
18Monza102171724-77LLLWL
19Venezia11209821-136WLLLW
20Udinese111281225-135LLDLL

Model strength ratings

#TeamGoal-difference strengthAttack indexDefence index (lower is better)Expected goals +/−
1Inter+1.061.510.782.18 / 1.12
2Roma+0.811.360.801.96 / 1.15
3Como+0.741.250.731.80 / 1.06
4Juventus+0.601.130.711.63 / 1.02
5AC Milan+0.561.180.791.70 / 1.15
6Napoli+0.501.150.811.66 / 1.17
7Lazio+0.361.130.881.63 / 1.27
8Bologna+0.010.920.921.33 / 1.32
9Atalanta+0.001.111.101.60 / 1.59
10Fiorentina-0.061.021.061.47 / 1.53
11Frosinone-0.171.121.241.62 / 1.79
12Genoa-0.190.780.911.12 / 1.32
13Torino-0.320.841.061.22 / 1.53
14Sassuolo-0.420.951.241.37 / 1.79
15Cagliari-0.470.711.041.03 / 1.50
16Venezia-0.490.801.141.16 / 1.65
17Udinese-0.540.781.151.12 / 1.67
18Monza-0.560.881.271.26 / 1.83
19Parma-0.680.661.130.95 / 1.63
20Lecce-0.730.721.231.05 / 1.78

Recent results: pre-match probability vs outcome

3/6Miss
Torino1 - 1Lecce
Home 53%Draw 26%Away 21%

AI picks: Torino · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Miss
Cagliari1 - 0Frosinone
Home 31%Draw 26%Away 43%

AI picks: Cagliari/Frosinone · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Hit
Venezia2 - 1Udinese
Home 40%Draw 30%Away 30%

AI picks: Venezia/Udinese · 1:1 · Under 2.5

2/6Miss
Atalanta0 - 3Parma
Home 68%Draw 19%Away 13%

AI picks: Atalanta · 2:0 · Over 2.5

2/6Hit
Sassuolo2 - 4Fiorentina
Home 32%Draw 26%Away 42%

AI picks: Sassuolo/Fiorentina · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Hit
Juventus2 - 0Napoli
Home 43%Draw 28%Away 29%

AI picks: Juventus/Napoli · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Hit
Lecce1 - 2Genoa
Home 29%Draw 32%Away 39%

AI picks: Draw/Genoa · 1:1 · Under 2.5

3/6Hit
Lazio2 - 1Cagliari
Home 64%Draw 21%Away 15%

AI picks: Lazio · 2:0 · Over 2.5

2/6Hit
Frosinone2 - 0Torino
Home 45%Draw 24%Away 31%

AI picks: Frosinone/Torino · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Hit
Como1 - 0Venezia
Home 73%Draw 16%Away 11%

AI picks: Como · 2:0 · Over 2.5

2026-27 · Matches 103 · 1X2 accuracy 63.1% · RPS 0.194

Season pick record by market

Play2026-27 · n=103
1X2 (match result)71.8%
1X2 (match result) · Confidence High89.3%
Handicap 1X245.6%
Correct score (top 2)20.4%
Total goals (top 2)52.4%
Half-time / full-time33.0%
Over / under 2.558.3%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

League season stats

Goals per game
3.15
Home wins
47.6%
Draws
16.5%
Away wins
35.9%
Over 2.5
60.2%
Both teams score
58.3%
Matches
103
HT / FT
44.4%

Total goals (0–7+)

0
1.9%
1
12.6%
2
25.2%
3
27.2%
4
12.6%
5
9.7%
6
6.8%
7+
3.9%

Half-time / full-time

H/H
26.2%
H/D
6.8%
H/A
1.9%
D/H
21.4%
D/D
4.9%
D/A
14.6%
A/H
0.0%
A/D
4.9%
A/A
19.4%