Serie A · Matchday 10
Lazio vs Cagliari prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Lazio win 64%, draw 21%, Cagliari win 15%; the final score was 2:1.
Full time: Lazio 2-1 Cagliari. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Lazio" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Lazio | 63.5% | most likely |
| Correct score | 2:1 | 9.9% | #4 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 22.4% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 20.0% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Lazio
- 64%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
- Lazio
- 40%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 2:0 / 1:0
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 40%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 56%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Lazio (64%); expected goals Lazio 2.03 – 0.89 Cagliari.
- 2.92 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 56%).
- The single most likely score is 2:0 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (40%).
- Last five: Lazio WWWWW (5 wins), Cagliari LLLDW (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Lazio
- 2.03
- Expected goals · Cagliari
- 0.89
- Most likely score
- 2:0 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 46% / 39% / 15%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Lazio | Draw | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 8.5% | 11.6% | 79.9% |
| Home -2 | 20.1% | 19.5% | 60.3% |
| Home -1≈ | 39.7% | 23.8% | 36.5% |
| Home +1 | 84.9% | 10.2% | 4.9% |
| Home +2 | 95.1% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Home +3 | 98.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:010.5%
- 2:011.1%
- 2:19.9%
- 3:07.5%
- 3:16.7%
- 3:23.0%
- 4:03.8%
- 4:13.4%
- 4:21.5%
- 5:01.6%
- 5:11.4%
- 5:20.6%
- Other home win2.5%
- 0:05.8%
- 1:110.2%
- 2:24.4%
- 3:30.9%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:14.3%
- 0:22.1%
- 1:24.3%
- 0:30.6%
- 1:31.3%
- 2:31.3%
- 0:40.1%
- 1:40.3%
- 2:40.3%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.3%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 79.3% | 55.9% | 33.5% | 17.2% |
| Under | 20.7% | 44.1% | 66.5% | 82.8% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 34.1%
- Over, even
- 21.8%
- Under, odd
- 14.8%
- Under, even
- 29.3%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 51.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 48.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · Lazio
- 41.1%
- Clean-sheet probability · Cagliari
- 13.1%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 13.1% | 26.6% | 27.1% | 33.2% |
| Cagliari | 41.1% | 36.5% | 16.2% | 6.1% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 40.4% | H/D 4.3% | H/A 1.0% |
| Draw | D/H 20.0% | D/D 12.9% | D/A 6.1% |
| Away | A/H 3.1% | A/D 4.3% | A/A 8.0% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Lazio
Rome-based club known as the Biancocelesti, who won Serie A titles in 1973–74 and 2000.
- City
- Rome, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Olimpico
- Founded
- 1900
- Head coach
- Gennaro Gattuso
Cagliari
Sardinia's only Serie A club and 1969–70 Italian champions, Cagliari finished 14th in 2025–26 under Fabio Pisacane and are generally a survival-focused side.
- City
- Cagliari, Italy
- Stadium
- Unipol Domus
- Founded
- 1920
- Head coach
- Fabio Pisacane
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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