Serie A · Matchday 11
Roma vs Sassuolo prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Roma a 71% chance of winning, 17% for a draw and 12% for Sassuolo; the single most likely score is 2:0 (10%) with 3.48 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)
- Roma
- 71%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -2
- Sassuolo
- 50%
- Correct score
- 2:0 / 2:1
- 19%
- Total goals
- 3 / 4 goals
- 40%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 49%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 68%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Roma are unbeaten in their last five (three wins, two draws), scoring 14 and conceding 7, including a 5-2 win at Udinese and a 3-3 draw at Napoli. They have had seven days' rest. The data provider lists no home absences, but web reports mention Svilar, Dybala and Manu Koné as out, so the picture may be incomplete. Sassuolo have lost four in a row and conceded 16 goals in that spell. They have had five days' rest and are missing I. Koné, Pieragnolo, Fali Candé, Boloca and Paz, with Berardi also reported absent. Roma won all four recent meetings.
The published probabilities are Roma 74%, draw 16% and Sassuolo 11%. Expected goals are 2.67–0.94, and the likeliest scores are 2:0 (10%), 2:1 (9%) and 3:0 (9%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 70% and both teams scoring at 57%. The figures blend our model with the consensus of 24 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:44 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Roma (71%); expected goals Roma 2.53 – 0.95 Sassuolo.
- Goals look likely: 3.48 expected in total, 68% for over 2.5 and 57% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:0 (10%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (49%).
- Last five: Roma WWDWD (3 wins), Sassuolo LLLLD (0 wins).
- Last 4 meetings in the dataset: Roma 4 wins, 0 draws, Sassuolo 0 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 24 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Roma
- 2.53
- Expected goals · Sassuolo
- 0.95
- Most likely score
- 2:0 (10%)
- Half-time result
- 54% / 33% / 14%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Roma | Draw | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 14.6% | 14.7% | 70.7% |
| Home -2≈ | 29.3% | 20.5% | 50.1% |
| Home -1 | 49.9% | 21.6% | 28.6% |
| Home +1 | 88.1% | 8.0% | 3.9% |
| Home +2 | 96.1% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Home +3 | 99.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
Model's balanced line: Home -2
Correct score
- 1:07.6%
- 2:09.8%
- 2:19.4%
- 3:08.3%
- 3:17.9%
- 3:23.8%
- 4:05.3%
- 4:15.0%
- 4:22.4%
- 5:02.7%
- 5:12.5%
- 5:21.2%
- Other home win5.6%
- 0:03.3%
- 1:17.6%
- 2:24.5%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:12.7%
- 0:21.4%
- 1:23.5%
- 0:30.4%
- 1:31.1%
- 2:31.4%
- 0:40.1%
- 1:40.3%
- 2:40.3%
- 0:50.0%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.4%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 86.4% | 67.6% | 46.0% | 27.1% |
| Under | 13.6% | 32.4% | 54.0% | 72.9% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 39.3%
- Over, even
- 28.3%
- Under, odd
- 10.3%
- Under, even
- 22.1%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Roma
- 38.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · Sassuolo
- 8.0%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | 8.0% | 20.1% | 25.5% | 46.4% |
| Sassuolo | 38.6% | 36.7% | 17.5% | 7.2% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 48.8% | H/D 3.8% | H/A 1.0% |
| Draw | D/H 19.0% | D/D 9.1% | D/A 4.5% |
| Away | A/H 3.6% | A/D 3.8% | A/A 6.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Roma 71.4% · Draw 16.7% · Sassuolo 11.9% · 2.5+ 67.6%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.36 | 5.71 | 8.39 | 3.5: 2.14 / 1.80 | -1.5: 2.01 / 1.92 |
| 1xBet | 1.37 | 5.94 | 8.40 | 3.5: 2.06 / 1.89 | -1.5: 1.97 / 1.97 |
| BetAnything | 1.33 | 6.10 | 8.25 | 3.5: 2.00 / 1.83 | -1.5: 1.91 / 1.91 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.33 | 6.10 | 8.25 | 3.5: 2.02 / 1.83 | -1.5: 1.91 / 1.96 |
| Coolbet | 1.37 | 5.60 | 8.20 | 3.5: 2.06 / 1.84 | -1.5: 2.01 / 1.88 |
| GTbets | 1.33 | 5.54 | 7.96 | 3.5: 1.97 / 1.85 | -1.5: 1.88 / 1.88 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.35 | 5.85 | 8.30 | 3.5: 2.00 / 1.83 | -1.5: 1.90 / 1.90 |
| Matchbook | 1.37 | 6.00 | 9.00 | 3.5: 2.12 / 1.85 | -1.5: 2.02 / 1.91 |
| Betsson | 1.35 | 5.35 | 8.00 | 2.5: 1.42 / 2.94 | – |
| Codere (IT) | 1.38 | 5.40 | 7.40 | 3.5: 1.94 / 1.74 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.29 | 5.40 | 8.00 | 3.5: 1.96 / 1.83 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 1.34 | 5.30 | 7.90 | 2.5: 1.40 / 2.88 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 1.27 | 5.25 | 8.00 | 3.5: 1.83 / 1.72 | – |
| Tipico | 1.32 | 5.70 | 7.80 | 3.5: 1.93 / 1.80 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 24 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Team news & line-ups
Roma
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Line-ups are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off and appear here automatically.
Sassuolo
Injuries & suspensions
- I. Koné · Broken Leg
- E. Pieragnolo · Jumpers Knee
- Fali Candé · Jumpers Knee
- D. Boloca · Muscle Bruise
- Y. Paz · Jumpers Knee
Starting XI
Line-ups are usually confirmed about an hour before kick-off and appear here automatically.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Roma are heavy favourites despite a long absence list that includes Svilar, Dybala and Manu Koné, because Sassuolo arrive without Berardi, on a four-match losing run and with a defence that has shipped 16 goals in that spell. We nudge the home probability very slightly down from the market to reflect Roma's makeshift goalkeeper situation and likely rotation after midweek, but the gap remains large. Goals look likely at both ends, so over 2.5 stays around 70%.
- Roma · Roma are without goalkeeper Svilar (stress fracture in a toe), Rensch (adductor tear, about 20 days out), Pellegrini (muscle injury) and, per most reports, Dybala and Manu Koné. (major · eurosport.it)
- Roma · Goalkeeper Gollini has back pain and is still doubtful. Vasquez, who played at Old Trafford, is expected to start in goal. (moderate · siamolaroma.it)
- Roma · Roma lost 3-0 after leading at half-time at Manchester United in the Champions League earlier in the week. Gasperini may rotate (Ghilardi, Pisilli, Lulli) and skipped the pre-match press conference. (moderate · romaforever.it)
- Roma · Roma are third in Serie A, 1 point behind Inter and 4 behind leaders Lazio. This is the last match before the international break, so there is motivation to close the gap. (moderate · headtopics.com)
- Sassuolo · Aquilani confirmed that captain Domenico Berardi and Cristian Volpato are out. No diagnosis has been given for Berardi. (major · dazn.com)
- Sassuolo · Sassuolo also remain without Ismaël Koné (broken leg), Leysen (ACL) and Boloca. Sassuolo's own injury news is more current than the data provider's list, which still shows Pieragnolo, Candé and Paz. Candé is in the probable XI, so he is lik (moderate · romanews.eu)
- Sassuolo · Sassuolo have lost their last four league games (conceding 4, 6, 0 and 4 goals in the sequence of heavy defeats) and have not won away since 15 February (3 draws, 8 defeats in 11 away games). (moderate · eurosport.it)
- Sassuolo · Roma have been unbeaten in 22 of 24 Serie A meetings with Sassuolo and have won the last four. (minor · eurosport.it)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Roma
Roma is a historic Rome-based club that shares the Stadio Olimpico with Lazio, and it finished 3rd in Serie A in 2025–26 under Gian Piero Gasperini.
- City
- Rome, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Olimpico
- Founded
- 1927
- Head coach
- Gian Piero Gasperini
Sassuolo
Nicknamed the Neroverdi, Sassuolo are an Emilia-Romagna club who returned to Serie A in 2025, finished 11th in 2025-26, and are now coached by Alberto Aquilani.
- City
- Sassuolo, Italy
- Stadium
- Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
- Founded
- 1920
- Head coach
- Alberto Aquilani
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Roma
- W@ Udinese5-2 · 10-31
- WCagliari4-2 · 10-27
- D@ Napoli3-3 · 10-24
- WGenoa2-0 · 10-17
- D@ Como0-0 · 10-11
Sassuolo
- LFiorentina2-4 · 11-02
- LLazio2-6 · 10-27
- L@ Como0-2 · 10-24
- L@ Frosinone2-4 · 10-16
- DAC Milan1-1 · 10-11
Roma 7 days rest · Sassuolo 5 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-01-10Roma 2-0 SassuoloSerie A
- 2025-10-26Sassuolo 0-1 RomaSerie A
- 2024-03-17Roma 1-0 SassuoloSerie A
- 2023-12-03Sassuolo 1-2 RomaSerie A
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