Serie A · Matchday 11
Torino vs Lecce prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Torino win 53%, draw 26%, Lecce win 21%; the final score was 1:1.
Full time: Torino 1-1 Lecce. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Torino" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Draw | 25.9% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:1 | 12.4% | most likely |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 25.2% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 47.8% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | D/D | 15.6% | #3 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Torino
- 53%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
- Lecce
- 47%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 33%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 52%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude before kick-off)
Torino host Lecce on Serie A Matchday 11, with both sides on six days' rest. The hosts have lost their last two (0-2 at Frosinone, 1-3 v Como) after three straight wins, and the data provider lists P. Pellegri as absent. Lecce have lost three in a row, most recently 1-2 v Genoa, and web reports point to a leaky defence. Torino won the latest meeting 1-0 in February, though Lecce took the two before that.
Our published numbers, blending our model with the consensus of 24 bookmakers, give Torino a 53% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lecce 21%. Expected goals are 1.67–0.99. The likeliest scores are 1:1 (12%), 1:0 (11%) and 2:0 (10%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 50% and both teams scoring at 52%.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:31 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written before kick-off and not edited after the match.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Torino (53%); expected goals Torino 1.73 – 1.03 Lecce.
- 2.76 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 52%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (33%).
- Last five: Torino LLWWW (3 wins), Lecce LLLWL (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the last margin-free consensus before kick-off of 24 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Torino
- 1.73
- Expected goals · Lecce
- 1.03
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 39% / 41% / 20%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Torino | Draw | Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.9% | 8.4% | 86.8% |
| Home -2 | 13.2% | 16.5% | 70.2% |
| Home -1≈ | 29.8% | 23.0% | 47.3% |
| Home +1 | 78.7% | 13.2% | 8.1% |
| Home +2 | 91.9% | 5.8% | 2.3% |
| Home +3 | 97.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:09.8%
- 2:09.5%
- 2:19.8%
- 3:05.5%
- 3:15.6%
- 3:22.9%
- 4:02.4%
- 4:12.4%
- 4:21.3%
- 5:00.8%
- 5:10.8%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.5%
- 0:07.4%
- 1:112.4%
- 2:25.0%
- 3:31.0%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:15.4%
- 0:23.3%
- 1:25.8%
- 0:31.1%
- 1:32.0%
- 2:31.7%
- 0:40.3%
- 1:40.5%
- 2:40.4%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.4%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 77.4% | 52.2% | 30.0% | 14.7% |
| Under | 22.6% | 47.8% | 70.0% | 85.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.4%
- Over, even
- 19.8%
- Under, odd
- 15.2%
- Under, even
- 32.6%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 54.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 46.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Torino
- 35.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Lecce
- 17.7%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino | 17.7% | 30.6% | 26.5% | 25.1% |
| Lecce | 35.7% | 36.8% | 18.9% | 8.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 32.9% | H/D 5.2% | H/A 1.4% |
| Draw | D/H 17.1% | D/D 15.6% | D/A 8.1% |
| Away | A/H 2.7% | A/D 5.2% | A/A 11.9% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Torino are clear favourites at home against a Lecce side that has lost three in a row and owns the second-worst defence in Serie A, though the Granata have themselves lost back-to-back games and are missing several defenders and midfielders. Lecce's absentee list is equally long, and the return of Gaspar only partly addresses their defensive problems. The news was widely reported a day in advance and is already reflected in the market, so we stay close to the bookmaker consensus with a marginal nudge toward the draw and under 2.5 goals.
- Torino · Torino have lost back-to-back league games (1-3 Como, 0-2 Frosinone) and risk a third straight defeat for the first time since January. (minor · whoscored.com)
- Torino · Ricardo Rodríguez, Fortini and Israel are listed as unavailable; Mandragora is also out or limited to the bench after passing a late fitness test. (moderate · sosfanta.com)
- Torino · Belghali has recovered from a knee knock and is expected to start at right wing-back. (minor · sport.sky.it)
- Torino · Cacciamani is back in training and may return, but Patterson is still favoured at left wing-back by some outlets. Sources disagree on his status. (minor · sport.sky.it)
- Torino · Pellegri (jumper's knee, on our provider's list) is not named in the Italian team-news roundups, so his status is unconfirmed. (minor · sport.sky.it)
- Torino · Adams and Simeone are expected to start up front again for Torino. Abate is expected to use a 3-5-2, though one outlet suggests a 4-4-2. (minor · sport.sky.it)
- Lecce · Lecce are without Ilic, Pierotti, Berisha and Joel Monteiro, who has a first-degree muscle strain. Geubbels is listed as out by most outlets, though one says he is back. (moderate · sport.sky.it)
- Lecce · Gaspar returns after a two-match suspension. Gorter's knock is no longer a concern. Coulibaly is doubtful but has trained with the group. (minor · sport.sky.it)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Torino
Torino is a historic Turin club known as Il Toro, seven-time Italian champions led by the Grande Torino side of the 1940s, and in recent years a mid-table Serie A team (12th in 2025–26).
- City
- Turin, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino
- Founded
- 1906
- Head coach
- Ignazio Abate
Lecce
Lecce is a club from Apulia in southern Italy, nicknamed the Giallorossi, and it usually plays in the lower half of Serie A; it finished 17th in 2025–26, which kept it in the top flight for a fourth straight season.
- City
- Lecce, Italy
- Stadium
- Stadio Via del Mare
- Founded
- 1908
- Head coach
- Eusebio Di Francesco
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Market & China Sports Lottery guide → · League page: Serie A →