Club football · AI probability model

J1 League predictions, table and team ratings 2026-27

136 J1 League matches played this season, 2.96 goals per game; FC Tokyo top the model's strength ranking. The 4 fixtures below each carry 1X2, correct-score, total-goals and HT/FT probabilities.

Data updated: 2026-11-07 16:20 UTC · Source: api-football

Upcoming match predictions

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
Machida ZelviavsSanfrecce Hiroshima
Home 33%Draw 28%Away 39%
Most likely score
1:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.76
Over / under 2.5
Over 52%

AI picks: Machida Zelvia/Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
Vissel KobevsUrawa Red Diamonds
Home 44%Draw 27%Away 29%
Most likely score
1:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.79
Over / under 2.5
Over 53%

AI picks: Vissel Kobe/Urawa Red Diamonds · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
Gamba OsakavsCerezo Osaka
Home 41%Draw 27%Away 32%
Most likely score
1:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.96
Over / under 2.5
Over 57%

AI picks: Gamba Osaka/Cerezo Osaka · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
JEF United ChibavsMito HollyHock
Home 47%Draw 28%Away 26%
Most likely score
1:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.58
Over / under 2.5
Over 48%

AI picks: JEF United Chiba/Draw · 1:1 · Under 2.5

Table · 2026-27

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsLast 5
1FC Tokyo141031338+2533WWWDW
2Kashiwa Reysol1410133120+1131WWWDL
3Sanfrecce Hiroshima139223210+2229WWLWW
4Machida Zelvia138413010+2028DDWWW
5Vissel Kobe138232112+926WDLWL
6Kashima Antlers147252924+523LWLDW
7Yokohama F. Marinos145722115+622DWDDD
8Kawasaki Frontale146442824+422LLWWW
9Urawa Red Diamonds137062127-621LWWWL
10Fagiano Okayama145271622-617DLLWL
11Kyoto Sanga144461923-416WWDDL
12Nagoya Grampus144281523-814LLDDW
13Cerezo Osaka133551323-1014LDDLD
14Tokyo Verdy143561222-1014WWWDL
15Shimizu S-Pulse144281023-1314LLLLD
16V-Varen Nagasaki143471722-513DLLWL
17Gamba Osaka132651421-712DDWDL
18JEF United Chiba132471524-910WDLDD
19Mito HollyHock132381225-139LLLLL
20Avispa Fukuoka1422101425-118DLLLL

Model strength ratings

#TeamGoal-difference strengthAttack indexDefence index (lower is better)Expected goals +/−
1FC Tokyo+0.871.330.681.77 / 0.90
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima+0.791.390.791.85 / 1.05
3Machida Zelvia+0.511.110.721.47 / 0.96
4Kashiwa Reysol+0.451.270.931.69 / 1.23
5Vissel Kobe+0.401.100.791.46 / 1.05
6Kashima Antlers+0.401.210.911.61 / 1.21
7Kawasaki Frontale+0.171.211.091.61 / 1.44
8Urawa Red Diamonds+0.051.051.011.39 / 1.35
9Yokohama F. Marinos-0.010.980.981.30 / 1.31
10Fagiano Okayama-0.100.931.001.23 / 1.33
11Nagoya Grampus-0.110.981.061.30 / 1.41
12Gamba Osaka-0.140.951.051.26 / 1.40
13Cerezo Osaka-0.180.941.081.25 / 1.44
14Kyoto Sanga-0.270.911.111.21 / 1.48
15Tokyo Verdy-0.380.761.041.00 / 1.39
16V-Varen Nagasaki-0.400.831.131.10 / 1.50
17Avispa Fukuoka-0.420.781.101.03 / 1.46
18Shimizu S-Pulse-0.480.741.100.98 / 1.46
19JEF United Chiba-0.490.841.211.12 / 1.61
20Mito HollyHock-0.660.701.200.94 / 1.59

Recent results: pre-match probability vs outcome

4/6Hit
Kashiwa Reysol2 - 1Kawasaki Frontale
Home 48%Draw 24%Away 28%

AI picks: Kashiwa Reysol/Kawasaki Frontale · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Hit
FC Tokyo2 - 0Kashima Antlers
Home 47%Draw 26%Away 27%

AI picks: FC Tokyo/Kashima Antlers · 1:1 · Over 2.5

4/6Miss
Avispa Fukuoka1 - 1V-Varen Nagasaki
Home 42%Draw 29%Away 29%

AI picks: Avispa Fukuoka/V-Varen Nagasaki · 1:1 · Under 2.5

3/6Miss
Yokohama F. Marinos1 - 1Fagiano Okayama
Home 43%Draw 27%Away 30%

AI picks: Yokohama F. Marinos/Fagiano Okayama · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Miss
Nagoya Grampus0 - 2Kyoto Sanga
Home 51%Draw 25%Away 24%

AI picks: Nagoya Grampus · 1:1 · Over 2.5

4/6Miss
Shimizu S-Pulse0 - 1Tokyo Verdy
Home 38%Draw 30%Away 31%

AI picks: Shimizu S-Pulse/Tokyo Verdy · 1:1 · Under 2.5

1/6Miss
Machida Zelvia0 - 0Gamba Osaka
Home 52%Draw 25%Away 23%

AI picks: Machida Zelvia · 1:1 · Over 2.5

4/6Miss
V-Varen Nagasaki1 - 2Tokyo Verdy
Home 37%Draw 29%Away 34%

AI picks: V-Varen Nagasaki/Tokyo Verdy · 1:1 · Over 2.5

4/6Miss
JEF United Chiba3 - 0Avispa Fukuoka
Home 34%Draw 29%Away 36%

AI picks: JEF United Chiba/Avispa Fukuoka · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Miss
Yokohama F. Marinos4 - 2Kawasaki Frontale
Home 30%Draw 25%Away 45%

AI picks: Yokohama F. Marinos/Kawasaki Frontale · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2026-27 · Matches 136 · 1X2 accuracy 53.7% · RPS 0.201

In the out-of-sample backtest only 39% of this competition's matches had prices, so the record mainly reflects the statistical model.

Season pick record by market

Play2026-27 · n=136
1X2 (match result)70.6%
1X2 (match result) · Confidence High87.5%
Handicap 1X250.7%
Correct score (top 2)22.8%
Total goals (top 2)44.9%
Half-time / full-time26.5%
Over / under 2.552.9%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

League season stats

Goals per game
2.96
Home wins
44.9%
Draws
23.5%
Away wins
31.6%
Over 2.5
57.4%
Both teams score
55.1%
Matches
136
HT / FT
39.7%

Total goals (0–7+)

0
5.9%
1
13.2%
2
23.5%
3
22.1%
4
18.4%
5
7.3%
6
7.3%
7+
2.2%

Half-time / full-time

H/H
26.5%
H/D
6.6%
H/A
2.9%
D/H
17.6%
D/D
14.0%
D/A
12.5%
A/H
0.7%
A/D
2.9%
A/A
16.2%