J1 League Β· Matchday 13
JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): JEF United Chiba win 34%, draw 29%, Avispa Fukuoka win 36%; the final score was 3:0.
Full time: JEF United Chiba 3-0 Avispa Fukuoka. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Avispa Fukuoka" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | JEF United Chiba | 34.3% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 3:0 | 2.7% | #15 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 22.3% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 17.9% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- JEF United Chiba / Avispa Fukuoka
- 71%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
- JEF United Chiba
- 64%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 19%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 53%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: JEF United Chiba 34%, draw 29%, Avispa Fukuoka 36% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.82 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 53%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (19%).
- Last five: JEF United Chiba DLDDL (0 wins), Avispa Fukuoka LLLWL (1 wins).
- A 29% draw probability is on the high side β the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· JEF United Chiba
- 1.39
- Expected goals Β· Avispa Fukuoka
- 1.43
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 26% / 46% / 27%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | JEF United Chiba | Draw | Avispa Fukuoka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.8% | 4.3% | 93.9% |
| Home -2 | 6.1% | 10.6% | 83.3% |
| Home -1 | 16.7% | 17.6% | 65.7% |
| Home +1β | 63.7% | 18.2% | 18.1% |
| Home +2 | 81.9% | 11.3% | 6.8% |
| Home +3 | 93.2% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:06.1%
- 2:05.7%
- 2:18.2%
- 3:02.7%
- 3:13.8%
- 3:22.7%
- 4:00.9%
- 4:11.3%
- 4:20.9%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.4%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win0.9%
- 0:08.1%
- 1:114.0%
- 2:25.9%
- 3:31.3%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:16.4%
- 0:26.1%
- 1:28.5%
- 0:32.9%
- 1:34.0%
- 2:32.8%
- 0:41.0%
- 1:41.4%
- 2:41.0%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.4%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win1.0%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 79.3% | 53.5% | 31.2% | 15.5% |
| Under | 20.7% | 46.5% | 68.8% | 84.5% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 33.0%
- Over, even
- 20.5%
- Under, odd
- 12.6%
- Under, even
- 34.0%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 59.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 40.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· JEF United Chiba
- 23.9%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Avispa Fukuoka
- 25.0%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JEF United Chiba | 25.0% | 34.7% | 24.0% | 16.3% |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 23.9% | 34.2% | 24.5% | 17.4% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 17.9% | H/D 5.9% | H/A 2.5% |
| Draw | D/H 14.0% | D/D 17.7% | D/A 14.7% |
| Away | A/H 2.4% | A/D 5.9% | A/A 19.1% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
JEF United Chiba
A historic club founded as the Furukawa Electric works team, JEF United Chiba returned to J1 League after a long spell in the second division and is struggling near the bottom of the 2026-27 table.
- City
- Chiba, Japan
- Stadium
- Fukuda Denshi Arena
- Founded
- 1946
- Head coach
- Yoshiyuki Kobayashi
Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka is a Fukuoka-based J1 League club whose name means "wasp" in Spanish. It is known for a compact, organized and hard-working style, and it won the J.League Cup in 2023.
- City
- Fukuoka, Japan
- Stadium
- Best Denki Stadium
- Founded
- 1982
- Head coach
- Shinya Tsukahara
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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