J1 League · Matchday 14
FC Tokyo vs Kashima Antlers prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): FC Tokyo win 47%, draw 26%, Kashima Antlers win 27%; the final score was 2:0.
Full time: FC Tokyo 2-0 Kashima Antlers. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "FC Tokyo" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | FC Tokyo | 46.6% | most likely |
| Correct score | 2:0 | 7.5% | #4 of 31 |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 23.7% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 43.2% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 17.2% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- FC Tokyo / Kashima Antlers
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
- Kashima Antlers
- 53%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 26%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 57%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude before kick-off)
Tokyo host Kashima in Round 14 of the J1 League in strong form: four wins and a draw in their last five, scoring 17 goals and conceding none. Kashima have won three, drawn one and lost one in that span, including a 3-2 defeat to Kashiwa Reysol and a 2-2 draw at Kyoto Sanga. Both sides have had seven days' rest. Kashima have won three of the last four meetings, with the other a 1-1 draw, and Tokyo scored just once in those games.
The published probabilities make Tokyo the favourite at 46%, with the draw at 26% and a Kashima win at 28%. Expected goals are 1.67–1.24, and the most likely scores are 1:1 (12%), 2:1 (9%) and 1:0 (8%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 56% and both teams scoring at 59%. These figures blend our model with the consensus of 21 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:27 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written before kick-off and not edited after the match.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour FC Tokyo (47%); expected goals FC Tokyo 1.70 – 1.26 Kashima Antlers.
- 2.96 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 57%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (26%).
- Last five: FC Tokyo WWDWW (4 wins), Kashima Antlers WLDWW (3 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the last margin-free consensus before kick-off of 21 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · FC Tokyo
- 1.70
- Expected goals · Kashima Antlers
- 1.26
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 34% / 43% / 23%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | FC Tokyo | Draw | Kashima Antlers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.9% | 7.0% | 89.1% |
| Home -2 | 10.9% | 14.5% | 74.6% |
| Home -1≈ | 25.4% | 21.2% | 53.4% |
| Home +1 | 72.5% | 15.5% | 11.9% |
| Home +2 | 88.1% | 8.0% | 4.0% |
| Home +3 | 96.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.8%
- 2:07.5%
- 2:19.4%
- 3:04.2%
- 3:15.3%
- 3:23.4%
- 4:01.8%
- 4:12.3%
- 4:21.4%
- 5:00.6%
- 5:10.8%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win1.7%
- 0:06.2%
- 1:112.1%
- 2:25.9%
- 3:31.4%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:15.5%
- 0:24.1%
- 1:27.0%
- 0:31.7%
- 1:32.9%
- 2:32.5%
- 0:40.5%
- 1:40.9%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 80.5% | 56.8% | 34.4% | 17.8% |
| Under | 19.5% | 43.2% | 65.6% | 82.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 34.5%
- Over, even
- 22.2%
- Under, odd
- 13.3%
- Under, even
- 29.9%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 59.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 40.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · FC Tokyo
- 28.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Kashima Antlers
- 18.3%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 18.3% | 31.1% | 26.4% | 24.2% |
| Kashima Antlers | 28.3% | 35.7% | 22.5% | 13.4% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 26.3% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 2.1% |
| Draw | D/H 17.2% | D/D 15.0% | D/A 11.0% |
| Away | A/H 3.1% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 14.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
League leaders Tokyo arrive on a full week's rest with eight straight clean sheets and a settled side, while Kashima are squeezing this in three days after an ACL Elite trip to Thailand in the middle of an 11-match run. Kashima rested their key men for that game, so the fatigue hit is partial, but we nudge the home side slightly above the market to around 47-48%. Tokyo's defensive record keeps the goal line close to even despite their recent scoring bursts.
- Kashima Antlers · Kashima played an AFC Champions League Elite away game at Buriram on 4 Nov, which was not in our rest-day data. That leaves about 3 days' rest, not 7, and the game was reportedly the 9th of an 11-match run. (major · sakanowa.jp)
- Kashima Antlers · Kashima left Yuma Suzuki out of the Buriram squad to focus on the Tokyo game. Reports say Shibasaki, Ueda and Sekigawa were also left out of the Thailand trip with Tokyo in mind. They are likely to return. (moderate · sakanowa.jp)
- Kashima Antlers · Kashima's young side drew 0-0 at Buriram. Leo Ceara and Eber came on as second-half substitutes. Kashima have conceded 6 goals in their last 3 league games. (moderate · lp.p.pia.jp)
- FC Tokyo · Tokyo have been missing key players Yuto Nagatomo, Sei Muroya and Kento Hashimoto, yet they have kept winning. They reached first place for the first time this season after beating Okayama on 31 Oct. (moderate · football-zone.net)
- FC Tokyo · Tokyo have kept 8 straight league clean sheets and are unbeaten in 12. They are chasing the J1 record-equalling 9th straight clean sheet. Rest is a full week, with no cup or European fixture nearby. (moderate · lp.p.pia.jp)
- FC Tokyo · Tokyo have gone 5 games without beating Kashima, and lost the last meeting 0-1 away on 23 May. They have a 17W-12D-31L all-time record against Kashima, but a near-even home record in the fixture (11W-6D-13L). (minor · news.yahoo.co.jp)
- FC Tokyo · Takeru Nakagawa started in the last two league games, scoring twice in the 6-0 win over Mito. Reports say Soma Anzai and U-21 Japan players are filling gaps left by injured players. (minor · news.yahoo.co.jp)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
FC Tokyo
A Tokyo-based J1 League club that grew out of the Tokyo Gas company team and plays at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu. It was in the upper part of the J1 table in the 2026 season.
- City
- Tokyo (Chōfu), Japan
- Stadium
- Ajinomoto Stadium
- Founded
- 1935
- Head coach
- Rikizo Matsuhashi
Kashima Antlers
One of the most decorated clubs in Japanese football, Kashima Antlers are known for a disciplined, competitive identity and were 6th in the J1 League at the latest update.
- City
- Kashima, Ibaraki, Japan
- Stadium
- Mercari Stadium (Kashima Soccer Stadium)
- Founded
- 1947
- Head coach
- Toru Oniki
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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