J1 League · Matchday 14
Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto Sanga prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Nagoya Grampus win 51%, draw 25%, Kyoto Sanga win 24%; the final score was 0:2.
Full time: Nagoya Grampus 0-2 Kyoto Sanga. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Nagoya Grampus" — missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Kyoto Sanga | 23.7% | #3 of 3 |
| Correct score | 0:2 | 3.6% | #11 of 31 |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 24.0% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 44.5% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 12.2% | #4 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Nagoya Grampus
- 51%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Hit
- Kyoto Sanga
- 49%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 29%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 56%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude before kick-off)
Nagoya Grampus host Kyoto Sanga in Regular Season round 14 of the J1 League, with both sides on seven days' rest. Nagoya have won two of their last five but lost 1-3 at Vissel Kobe last time out, and reports say they are without Mateus Castro. Kyoto won 2-0 against Shimizu S-Pulse in their latest game after a run of two draws and two defeats, and are reported to have a full-strength squad. Nagoya won the most recent meeting 3-0 in May, and the three before it were a 1-1, a Kyoto 2-1 win and another 1-1.
The published probabilities make Nagoya slight favourites: home win 51%, draw 25%, away win 24%. Expected goals are 1.76 to 1.15. The likeliest scores are 1:1 (12%), 2:1 (10%) and 1:0 (9%). Over 2.5 goals is at 55% and both teams scoring at 57%. The figures blend our model with the consensus of 21 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:25 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written before kick-off and not edited after the match.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Nagoya Grampus (51%); expected goals Nagoya Grampus 1.76 – 1.14 Kyoto Sanga.
- 2.91 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 56%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (29%).
- Last five: Nagoya Grampus LDDWW (2 wins), Kyoto Sanga WDDLL (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the last margin-free consensus before kick-off of 21 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Nagoya Grampus
- 1.76
- Expected goals · Kyoto Sanga
- 1.14
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 36% / 43% / 21%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Nagoya Grampus | Draw | Kyoto Sanga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 4.7% | 8.1% | 87.1% |
| Home -2 | 12.9% | 15.9% | 71.3% |
| Home -1≈ | 28.7% | 22.3% | 48.9% |
| Home +1 | 76.3% | 14.1% | 9.6% |
| Home +2 | 90.4% | 6.6% | 2.9% |
| Home +3 | 97.1% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:08.7%
- 2:08.5%
- 2:19.7%
- 3:05.0%
- 3:15.7%
- 3:23.3%
- 4:02.2%
- 4:12.5%
- 4:21.4%
- 5:00.8%
- 5:10.9%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win1.7%
- 0:06.4%
- 1:111.9%
- 2:25.5%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:15.3%
- 0:23.6%
- 1:26.3%
- 0:31.4%
- 1:32.4%
- 2:32.1%
- 0:40.4%
- 1:40.7%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.6%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 79.6% | 55.5% | 33.2% | 16.9% |
| Under | 20.4% | 44.5% | 66.8% | 83.1% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 34.0%
- Over, even
- 21.6%
- Under, odd
- 14.1%
- Under, even
- 30.4%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 57.3%
- Both teams to score: No
- 42.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Nagoya Grampus
- 31.9%
- Clean-sheet probability · Kyoto Sanga
- 17.1%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 17.1% | 30.2% | 26.7% | 26.0% |
| Kyoto Sanga | 31.9% | 36.5% | 20.8% | 10.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 29.1% | H/D 5.2% | H/A 1.8% |
| Draw | D/H 18.7% | D/D 14.9% | D/A 9.7% |
| Away | A/H 3.2% | A/D 5.2% | A/A 12.2% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Nagoya are favoured at home, but their attack has stalled without Mateus Castro, producing a single goal in each of their last four outings. Kyoto come in with a clean-sheet win and a full-strength squad on the same seven days' rest, so we trim the home edge slightly from the bookmaker line. Goals expectation stays close to the market with over 2.5 marginally favoured.
- Nagoya Grampus · Forward Mateus Castro is still out injured and is talking about an early return, so he is unlikely to be available. (moderate · chunichi.co.jp)
- Nagoya Grampus · Defender Hiroya Fujii played the full 90 minutes against Kobe and says he is fully fit for this match. (minor · news.yahoo.co.jp)
- Nagoya Grampus · Nagoya have scored only one goal in each of their last four games (including the 2026-10-28 Levain Cup tie against Urawa) and are winless in them. They are chasing their first league win in four. (moderate · news.yahoo.co.jp)
- Nagoya Grampus · Nagoya are already out of the Levain Cup, and coaches have warned the squad about influenza. No cup rotation is expected, but flu could affect availability. (minor · hicbc.com)
- Kyoto Sanga · Kyoto have had a managerial change since the previous season: Cho Kikyo left in May 2026 and Yoshida Daruma took over for the playoff round. I could not confirm who is in charge now or whether the team has changed style. (minor · sanga-fc.jp)
- Kyoto Sanga · I found no confirmed injury or suspension news for Kyoto. They arrive on a week's rest after a 2-0 win over Shimizu. (minor · unknown)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Nagoya Grampus
Toyota-backed founding member of the J.League and 2010 J1 champions, Nagoya Grampus are coached in 2026 by Mihailo Petrović, whose side often line up in a 3-4-2-1.
- City
- Nagoya, Japan
- Stadium
- Toyota Stadium
- Founded
- 1939
- Head coach
- Mihailo Petrović
Kyoto Sanga
A purple-shirted club from the Kyoto area that plays in J1 League and is coached by Ranko Popović, who took over in mid-2026.
- City
- Kameoka, Kyoto, Japan
- Stadium
- Sanga Stadium by Kyocera
- Founded
- 1922
- Head coach
- Ranko Popović
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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