J1 League Β· Matchday 14
Yokohama F. Marinos vs Fagiano Okayama prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Yokohama F. Marinos win 43%, draw 27%, Fagiano Okayama win 30%; the final score was 1:1.
Full time: Yokohama F. Marinos 1-1 Fagiano Okayama. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Yokohama F. Marinos" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Draw | 27.0% | #3 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:1 | 12.9% | most likely |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 25.1% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 48.2% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | D/D | 16.4% | #3 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Yokohama F. Marinos / Fagiano Okayama
- 73%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
- Fagiano Okayama
- 57%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 47%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 23%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 52%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude before kick-off)
Yokohama F Marinos host Fagiano Okayama in Round 14 of the J1 League. The hosts are unbeaten in their last five (one win, four draws, including a 4-2 win over Kawasaki Frontale), but they are without Croux and Chinen and may rotate ahead of a League Cup tie. Okayama have lost four of their last five, though they won both 2025 meetings 1-0. Rest is six days for Marinos and seven for Okayama.
Our published probabilities, blended from our model and the consensus of 20 bookmakers, give Marinos a slight edge: home win 39%, draw 27%, away win 34%. Expected goals are 1.43β1.31, with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 56%. The most likely scores are 1:1 (13%), 2:1 (9%) and 1:0 (8%).
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:25 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written before kick-off and not edited after the match.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Yokohama F. Marinos (43%); expected goals Yokohama F. Marinos 1.51 β 1.24 Fagiano Okayama.
- 2.75 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 52%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (23%).
- Last five: Yokohama F. Marinos WDDDD (1 wins), Fagiano Okayama LLWLL (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the last margin-free consensus before kick-off of 20 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Yokohama F. Marinos
- 1.51
- Expected goals Β· Fagiano Okayama
- 1.24
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 31% / 45% / 24%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Yokohama F. Marinos | Draw | Fagiano Okayama |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.7% | 5.7% | 91.6% |
| Home -2 | 8.4% | 13.0% | 78.5% |
| Home -1β | 21.5% | 21.1% | 57.4% |
| Home +1 | 69.6% | 17.2% | 13.2% |
| Home +2 | 86.8% | 8.8% | 4.4% |
| Home +3 | 95.6% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:08.8%
- 2:07.3%
- 2:19.0%
- 3:03.7%
- 3:14.5%
- 3:22.8%
- 4:01.4%
- 4:11.7%
- 4:21.1%
- 5:00.4%
- 5:10.5%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.1%
- 0:07.3%
- 1:112.9%
- 2:25.6%
- 3:31.2%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:17.1%
- 0:24.9%
- 1:27.4%
- 0:32.0%
- 1:33.1%
- 2:32.3%
- 0:40.6%
- 1:41.0%
- 2:40.7%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.7%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 76.9% | 51.8% | 29.6% | 14.4% |
| Under | 23.1% | 48.2% | 70.4% | 85.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 32.2%
- Over, even
- 19.6%
- Under, odd
- 15.9%
- Under, even
- 32.3%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 56.2%
- Both teams to score: No
- 43.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Yokohama F. Marinos
- 28.9%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Fagiano Okayama
- 22.2%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 22.2% | 33.4% | 25.2% | 19.3% |
| Fagiano Okayama | 28.9% | 35.9% | 22.2% | 12.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 23.3% | H/D 5.3% | H/A 2.1% |
| Draw | D/H 16.5% | D/D 16.4% | D/A 12.4% |
| Away | A/H 2.7% | A/D 5.3% | A/A 15.9% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
(Claude's experimental view; does not change this page) Yokohama F Marinos are modest favourites at home against a Fagiano Okayama side that has lost four of its last five, but the hosts are missing Croux and Chinen and may rotate ahead of a League Cup tie. Our model leans much more heavily toward Marinos than the market, yet the fresh news is mildly negative for the home side, so we stay close to the bookmaker consensus with only a slight tilt to the hosts. Goals look roughly a coin-flip for over 2.5.
- Yokohama F. Marinos Β· Jordy Croux was ruled out with a left hamstring strain, announced by the club on 5 Nov, after he was substituted early in the 1 Nov Kawasaki derby. (moderate Β· ultra-soccer.jp)
- Yokohama F. Marinos Β· Kei Chinen is out for an estimated 6-8 weeks with a right Lisfranc joint injury, announced on 23 Oct. (moderate Β· dazn.com)
- Yokohama F. Marinos Β· Marinos have drawn six league games this season, the most in J1, and are 8th with 21 points. They have a League Cup tie against Kashima on 11 Nov, so some rotation is possible. (minor Β· fotmob.com)
- Fagiano Okayama Β· Defender Daichi Tagami is out with ACL, meniscus and MCL injuries, confirmed by the club on 17 Oct. (moderate Β· soraretactics.com)
- Fagiano Okayama Β· Kosei Ogura is out after a meniscus operation, with a six-month estimate. Takaya Kimura's fitness after a foot operation is unclear. (minor Β· soraretactics.com)
- Fagiano Okayama Β· Okayama are 10th with 16 points after losing 0-4 to Tokyo and 1-2 to Kawasaki Frontale in their last two games. (minor Β· fotmob.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Yokohama F. Marinos
Nissan-backed club from Yokohama and a long-standing J1 League side, known for attacking, possession-based football.
- City
- Yokohama, Japan
- Stadium
- Nissan Stadium
- Founded
- 1972
- Head coach
- Steve Corica
Fagiano Okayama
Okayama's J1 League club, named after the Italian word for pheasant, who reached the top flight in 2025 and often line up in a 3-4-2-1 under Takashi Kiyama.
- City
- Okayama, Japan
- Stadium
- JFE Harenokuni Stadium
- Founded
- 1975
- Head coach
- Takashi Kiyama
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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