J1 League Β· Matchday 14
Gamba Osaka vs Cerezo Osaka prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Gamba Osaka a 41% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 32% for Cerezo Osaka; the single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) with 2.96 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- Gamba Osaka / Cerezo Osaka
- 73%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1
- Cerezo Osaka
- 59%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 23%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 57%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Gamba Osaka have one win, three draws and one defeat in their last five league games. Cerezo Osaka have not won in that spell, with three draws and two defeats, including 1-4 at Kashima and 2-4 against Kawasaki Frontale. Rest is almost equal, at 7 days for Gamba and 8 for Cerezo. In the last four derbies Cerezo won twice, Gamba once, and one match ended 0-0.
The published probabilities, a blend of our model and the consensus of 19 bookmakers, give Gamba 41%, a draw 27% and Cerezo 32%. The most likely scores are 1:1 (12%), 2:1 (9%) and 1:2 (8%). Expected goals are 1.59β1.38, with over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 61%.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 04:23 AM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- Evenly matched: Gamba Osaka 41%, draw 27%, Cerezo Osaka 32% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.96 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 57%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (23%).
- Last five: Gamba Osaka DDWDL (1 wins), Cerezo Osaka LDDLD (0 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Gamba Osaka 2 wins, 1 draws, Cerezo Osaka 3 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 20 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Gamba Osaka
- 1.58
- Expected goals Β· Cerezo Osaka
- 1.38
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 31% / 43% / 26%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Gamba Osaka | Draw | Cerezo Osaka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.8% | 5.7% | 91.5% |
| Home -2 | 8.5% | 12.6% | 78.9% |
| Home -1β | 21.1% | 19.8% | 59.1% |
| Home +1 | 67.7% | 17.2% | 15.1% |
| Home +2 | 84.9% | 9.7% | 5.4% |
| Home +3 | 94.6% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.0%
- 2:06.4%
- 2:18.9%
- 3:03.4%
- 3:14.7%
- 3:23.2%
- 4:01.3%
- 4:11.8%
- 4:21.3%
- 5:00.4%
- 5:10.6%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.4%
- 0:06.4%
- 1:112.5%
- 2:26.2%
- 3:31.5%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:16.0%
- 0:25.0%
- 1:27.8%
- 0:32.3%
- 1:33.6%
- 2:32.8%
- 0:40.8%
- 1:41.2%
- 2:41.0%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win1.0%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 80.7% | 56.8% | 34.4% | 17.8% |
| Under | 19.3% | 43.2% | 65.6% | 82.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 34.5%
- Over, even
- 22.3%
- Under, odd
- 12.9%
- Under, even
- 30.3%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 60.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 39.4%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Gamba Osaka
- 25.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Cerezo Osaka
- 20.7%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gamba Osaka | 20.7% | 32.6% | 25.7% | 21.1% |
| Cerezo Osaka | 25.1% | 34.7% | 24.0% | 16.2% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 22.8% | H/D 5.7% | H/A 2.4% |
| Draw | D/H 15.3% | D/D 15.4% | D/A 12.5% |
| Away | A/H 2.9% | A/D 5.7% | A/A 17.4% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Gamba Osaka 40.9% Β· Draw 26.8% Β· Cerezo Osaka 32.3% Β· 2.5+ 56.8%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.62 | 3.07 | 2.75: 1.93 / 1.94 | -0.25: 2.01 / 1.88 |
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.53 | 2.97 | 2.5: 1.73 / 2.14 | 0: 1.71 / 2.16 |
| Coolbet | 2.35 | 3.60 | 2.85 | 2.5: 1.71 / 2.15 | -1: 3.59 / 1.28 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.28 | 3.44 | 2.89 | 2.5: 1.69 / 2.09 | 0: 1.67 / 2.10 |
| Matchbook | 2.34 | 3.65 | 3.05 | 2.5: 1.75 / 2.18 | -0.25: 2.00 / 1.87 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.30 | 3.55 | 3.05 | 2.75: 1.87 / 1.88 | β |
| Betsson | 2.22 | 3.35 | 2.90 | 2.5: 1.68 / 2.05 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.35 | 3.50 | 2.70 | 2.5: 1.54 / 2.28 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 2.22 | 3.35 | 2.90 | 2.5: 1.68 / 2.05 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 2.25 | 3.35 | 2.55 | 2.5: 1.48 / 2.18 | β |
| Tipico | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 2.5: 1.62 / 2.10 | β |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.35 | 3.50 | 2.65 | 2.5: 1.54 / 2.28 | β |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.35 | 3.50 | 2.65 | 2.5: 1.54 / 2.28 | β |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.88 | 2.5: 1.70 / 2.05 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 20 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the Osaka derby stays close to the bookmaker consensus: Gamba carry extra fatigue from a midweek Champions League match in Korea, but that schedule was known well in advance and offers nothing the market has missed. Gamba's four-game unbeaten run against a Cerezo side without a win in eight gives the hosts a modest edge, while both defences have been porous enough to keep a high-scoring game plausible.
- Gamba Osaka Β· Gamba played an AFC Champions League Elite match at Pohang on 2026-11-04 (3-3), so their real rest is about 4 days, not the 7 in our data. Squad rotation and fatigue are possible. (moderate Β· footballchannel.jp)
- Gamba Osaka Β· Gamba are in the lower table, 15th or 16th on 12 points after 13 games (2W 6D 5L). They are unbeaten in 4 league games, but a derby win matters for their survival fight. (moderate Β· jleague.jp)
- Cerezo Osaka Β· Cerezo lost 1-4 at Kashima on 2026-10-31 and are winless in eight league matches, per the J.League preview. They sit 12th and have little at stake in the table. (moderate Β· jleague.jp)
- Cerezo Osaka Β· Cerezo have not won in six away league games this season (2 draws, 4 losses) and have scored one goal or fewer in each of those games. (minor Β· scores24.live)
- Gamba Osaka Β· Gamba have a Tenno-Haisai (Emperor's Cup) round-of-16 tie against Urawa on 2026-12-09, which is not near enough to affect this match. (minor Β· footballchannel.jp)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Gamba Osaka
Osaka-based J1 League club, champions in 2005 and winners of a domestic treble in 2014, known for attacking, forward-minded football and a strong youth academy.
- City
- Suita, Osaka, Japan
- Stadium
- Panasonic Stadium Suita
- Founded
- 1980
- Head coach
- Tomokazu Myojin
Cerezo Osaka
An Osaka club known for its cherry-blossom pink colours and a strong youth academy, it won the 2017 Emperor's Cup and League Cup and plays in J1 League under Spanish coach Pablo MachΓn.
- City
- Osaka, Japan
- Stadium
- Yodoko Sakura Stadium
- Founded
- 1957
- Head coach
- Pablo MachΓn
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Gamba Osaka
- D@ Machida Zelvia0-0 Β· 11-01
- DKyoto Sanga2-2 Β· 10-24
- W@ Avispa Fukuoka2-1 Β· 10-21
- D@ Shimizu S-Pulse2-2 Β· 10-17
- L@ Kashima Antlers0-2 Β· 10-09
Cerezo Osaka
- L@ Kashima Antlers1-4 Β· 10-31
- DJEF United Chiba2-2 Β· 10-25
- D@ Nagoya Grampus1-1 Β· 10-21
- LKawasaki Frontale2-4 Β· 10-17
- DYokohama F. Marinos0-0 Β· 10-10
Gamba Osaka 7 days rest Β· Cerezo Osaka 8 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-04-11Gamba Osaka 0-1 Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
- 2026-02-07Cerezo Osaka 0-0 Gamba OsakaJ1 League
- 2025-07-05Cerezo Osaka 0-1 Gamba OsakaJ1 League
- 2025-02-14Gamba Osaka 2-5 Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
- 2024-10-02Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Gamba OsakaJ1 League
- 2024-05-06Gamba Osaka 1-0 Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: J1 League β