J1 League Β· Matchday 13
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): V-Varen Nagasaki win 37%, draw 29%, Tokyo Verdy win 34%; the final score was 1:2.
Full time: V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Tokyo Verdy. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "V-Varen Nagasaki" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Tokyo Verdy | 33.7% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:2 | 8.1% | #3 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 22.3% | #2 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.1% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 17.5% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- V-Varen Nagasaki / Tokyo Verdy
- 71%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
- Tokyo Verdy
- 63%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 20%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 54%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: V-Varen Nagasaki 37%, draw 29%, Tokyo Verdy 34% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.84 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 54%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (20%).
- Last five: V-Varen Nagasaki LWLDD (1 wins), Tokyo Verdy WDLLL (1 wins).
- A 29% draw probability is on the high side β the profile where 1X2 upsets cluster.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· V-Varen Nagasaki
- 1.46
- Expected goals Β· Tokyo Verdy
- 1.38
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 28% / 46% / 26%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | V-Varen Nagasaki | Draw | Tokyo Verdy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.2% | 4.9% | 92.9% |
| Home -2 | 7.1% | 11.6% | 81.3% |
| Home -1β | 18.7% | 18.4% | 62.9% |
| Home +1 | 66.3% | 17.3% | 16.3% |
| Home +2 | 83.7% | 10.4% | 5.9% |
| Home +3 | 94.1% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:06.4%
- 2:06.2%
- 2:18.6%
- 3:03.0%
- 3:14.2%
- 3:22.9%
- 4:01.1%
- 4:11.5%
- 4:21.1%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.4%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.1%
- 0:07.9%
- 1:113.9%
- 2:25.9%
- 3:31.3%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:15.9%
- 0:25.6%
- 1:28.1%
- 0:32.6%
- 1:33.8%
- 2:32.7%
- 0:40.9%
- 1:41.3%
- 2:40.9%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.4%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win0.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 79.7% | 54.1% | 31.8% | 15.9% |
| Under | 20.3% | 45.9% | 68.2% | 84.1% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 33.3%
- Over, even
- 20.8%
- Under, odd
- 12.3%
- Under, even
- 33.6%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 59.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 40.4%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· V-Varen Nagasaki
- 25.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Tokyo Verdy
- 23.2%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| V-Varen Nagasaki | 23.2% | 33.9% | 24.7% | 18.1% |
| Tokyo Verdy | 25.1% | 34.7% | 24.0% | 16.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 19.6% | H/D 5.9% | H/A 2.4% |
| Draw | D/H 14.9% | D/D 17.5% | D/A 13.7% |
| Away | A/H 2.6% | A/D 5.9% | A/A 17.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
V-Varen Nagasaki
Nagasaki Prefecture's professional club, promoted back to J1 in 2025 after eight years away.
- City
- Nagasaki, Japan
- Stadium
- PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank
- Founded
- 2005
- Head coach
- Takuya Takaki
Tokyo Verdy
One of the founding clubs of Japan's professional league, Tokyo Verdy won the J.League's first two titles and now plays in J1 after years in the second division, with a technical, possession-minded tradition.
- City
- ChΕfu, Tokyo, Japan
- Stadium
- Ajinomoto Stadium
- Founded
- 1969
- Head coach
- Naoki Soma
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: J1 League β