J1 League Β· Matchday 14
Avispa Fukuoka vs V-Varen Nagasaki prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Avispa Fukuoka win 42%, draw 29%, V-Varen Nagasaki win 29%; the final score was 1:1.
Full time: Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Avispa Fukuoka" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Draw | 28.9% | #3 of 3 |
| Correct score | 1:1 | 13.8% | most likely |
| Total goals | 2 goals | 26.8% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.1% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/D | 5.2% | #7 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- Avispa Fukuoka / V-Varen Nagasaki
- 71%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
- V-Varen Nagasaki
- 58%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 24%
- Total goalsHit
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 22%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Under
- 55%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude before kick-off)
Avispa Fukuoka arrive bottom of the table in what looks like a relegation six-pointer. They have lost four straight, and interim coach Yusuke Murakami has been in charge for only one game before Hiroshi Jofuku takes over. V Varen Nagasaki are also out of form, with one win in their last five, but they have the sharper attack through Mateus Jesus and Thiago Santana. Both sides have had six days' rest, and each won 1-0 at home in their two meetings this year.
The published probabilities give Fukuoka a 42% chance of winning, with the draw and a Nagasaki win both at 29%. Expected goals are 1.39β1.11. The likeliest scores are 1:1 (14%), 1:0 (10%) and 0:0 (9%). Over 2.5 goals is at 46% and both teams scoring at 51%, so a tight, nervous game looks most likely.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:26 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written before kick-off and not edited after the match.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Avispa Fukuoka (42%); expected goals Avispa Fukuoka 1.37 β 1.11 V-Varen Nagasaki.
- 2.47 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 45%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (22%).
- Last five: Avispa Fukuoka LLLLW (1 wins), V-Varen Nagasaki LLWLD (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the last margin-free consensus before kick-off of 21 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Avispa Fukuoka
- 1.37
- Expected goals Β· V-Varen Nagasaki
- 1.11
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 29% / 48% / 23%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Avispa Fukuoka | Draw | V-Varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.2% | 5.2% | 92.7% |
| Home -2 | 7.3% | 12.7% | 80.0% |
| Home -1β | 20.0% | 21.7% | 58.3% |
| Home +1 | 70.6% | 17.4% | 12.0% |
| Home +2 | 88.0% | 8.3% | 3.6% |
| Home +3 | 96.4% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:010.5%
- 2:07.9%
- 2:18.7%
- 3:03.6%
- 3:14.0%
- 3:22.2%
- 4:01.2%
- 4:11.4%
- 4:20.7%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.4%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.7%
- 0:09.4%
- 1:113.8%
- 2:24.8%
- 3:30.8%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:18.3%
- 0:25.2%
- 1:27.1%
- 0:31.9%
- 1:32.6%
- 2:31.8%
- 0:40.5%
- 1:40.7%
- 2:40.5%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.4%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 71.7% | 44.9% | 23.7% | 10.5% |
| Under | 28.3% | 55.1% | 76.3% | 89.5% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 28.8%
- Over, even
- 16.1%
- Under, odd
- 18.8%
- Under, even
- 36.2%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 50.9%
- Both teams to score: No
- 49.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Avispa Fukuoka
- 33.0%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· V-Varen Nagasaki
- 25.5%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avispa Fukuoka | 25.5% | 34.9% | 23.8% | 15.8% |
| V-Varen Nagasaki | 33.0% | 36.6% | 20.3% | 10.1% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 22.4% | H/D 5.2% | H/A 1.8% |
| Draw | D/H 16.9% | D/D 18.6% | D/A 12.5% |
| Away | A/H 2.3% | A/D 5.2% | A/A 15.1% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Avispa Fukuoka go into this relegation six-pointer bottom of the table, on a four-match losing run and with interim coach Yusuke Murakami in charge for just one game before new boss Hiroshi Jofuku arrives. The managerial change is public and already priced by bookmakers, so we only shade slightly toward Nagasaki, who are themselves out of form but have the sharper attack in Mateus Jesus and Thiago Santana. A tight, nervous game is expected, with goals roughly a coin flip.
- Avispa Fukuoka Β· Fukuoka sacked head coach Shinya Tsukahara on 3 Nov after four straight league losses left them bottom of J1. (major Β· football-zone.net)
- Avispa Fukuoka Β· Head coach Yusuke Murakami will take interim charge for this match. New manager Hiroshi Jofuku, formerly of Tokyo Verdy, was announced on 6 Nov and joins the squad on 11 Nov. (major Β· nishinippon.co.jp)
- Avispa Fukuoka Β· Fukuoka are bottom with 7 points and have conceded 24 goals in 13 games. They are in a relegation fight and badly need points. (moderate Β· nishinippon.co.jp)
- Avispa Fukuoka Β· Murakami spent time at Nagasaki as a player and coach and says he wants Fukuoka to be aggressive and physical, with more duels. (minor Β· yahoo.co.jp)
- V-Varen Nagasaki Β· Nagasaki have lost two league games in a row, most recently 1-2 at home to Tokyo Verdy. Coach Takaya Takagi said that result was completely unacceptable. (moderate Β· nagasaki-np.co.jp)
- V-Varen Nagasaki Β· Nagasaki sit 15th and need points to stay in J1. Mateus Jesus is their main goal threat with 4 goals this season. (minor Β· yahoo.co.jp)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka is a Fukuoka-based J1 League club whose name means "wasp" in Spanish. It is known for a compact, organized and hard-working style, and it won the J.League Cup in 2023.
- City
- Fukuoka, Japan
- Stadium
- Best Denki Stadium
- Founded
- 1982
- Head coach
- Shinya Tsukahara
V-Varen Nagasaki
Nagasaki Prefecture's professional club, promoted back to J1 in 2025 after eight years away.
- City
- Nagasaki, Japan
- Stadium
- PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank
- Founded
- 2005
- Head coach
- Takuya Takaki
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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