Serie A · Matchday 10

Como vs Venezia prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Como
WWWDL
1 - 0
HT 1-0
Venezia
LLWLL

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Como win 73%, draw 16%, Venezia win 11%; the final score was 1:0.

Full time: Como 1-0 Venezia. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Como" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultComo73.4%most likely
Correct score1:07.4%#5 of 31
Total goals1 goals9.8%#5 of 8
Over/under 2.5Under 2.531.5%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeH/H49.9%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: High
1X2 (match result)Hit
Como
73%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -2Hit
Venezia
48%
Correct scoreMiss
2:0 / 2:1
19%
Total goalsMiss
3 / 4 goals
40%
Half-time / full-timeHit
H/H
50%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Over
69%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Como (73%); expected goals Como 2.61 – 0.92 Venezia.
  • Goals look likely: 3.53 expected in total, 69% for over 2.5 and 56% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 2:0 (10%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (50%).
  • Last five: Como WWWDL (3 wins), Venezia LLWLL (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Como 73%Draw 16%Venezia 11%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Como
2.61
Expected goals · Venezia
0.92
Most likely score
2:0 (10%)
Half-time result
54% / 33% / 13%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2ComoDrawVenezia
Home -316.2%15.4%68.5%
Home -2≈31.5%20.8%47.6%
Home -152.4%21.0%26.6%
Home +189.4%7.2%3.4%
Home +296.6%2.6%0.8%
Home +399.2%0.7%0.2%

Model's balanced line: Home -2

Correct score

Como · Home
  • 1:07.4%
  • 2:010.0%
  • 2:19.2%
  • 3:08.7%
  • 3:18.0%
  • 3:23.7%
  • 4:05.7%
  • 4:15.2%
  • 4:22.4%
  • 5:03.0%
  • 5:12.7%
  • 5:21.3%
  • Other home win6.2%
Draw
  • 0:03.2%
  • 1:17.3%
  • 2:24.2%
  • 3:31.1%
  • Other draw0.2%
Venezia · Away
  • 0:12.4%
  • 0:21.2%
  • 1:23.2%
  • 0:30.4%
  • 1:31.0%
  • 2:31.3%
  • 0:40.1%
  • 1:40.2%
  • 2:40.3%
  • 0:50.0%
  • 1:50.0%
  • 2:50.1%
  • Other away win0.4%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
3.2%
1
9.8%
2
18.5%
3
21.5%
4
19.0%
5
13.4%
6
7.9%
7+
6.8%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over87.0%68.5%47.0%28.1%
Under13.0%31.5%53.0%71.9%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
39.6%
Over, even
28.9%
Under, odd
9.8%
Under, even
21.7%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
55.9%
Both teams to score: No
44.1%
Clean-sheet probability · Como
39.9%
Clean-sheet probability · Venezia
7.3%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Como7.3%19.1%25.0%48.5%
Venezia39.9%36.7%16.8%6.6%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
49.9%
H/D
3.6%
H/A
0.9%
Draw
D/H
19.8%
D/D
8.8%
D/A
4.1%
Away
A/H
3.7%
A/D
3.6%
A/A
5.6%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Como

Lakeside Lombardy club in royal blue, owned by the Hartono brothers' Djarum Group, who finished 4th in Serie A in 2025–26 to reach the Champions League for the first time under possession-based coach Cesc Fàbregas.

City
Como, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Founded
1907
Head coach
Cesc Fàbregas

Venezia

Orange-black-and-green club from the Venetian lagoon, promoted back to Serie A as Serie B champions in 2025–26.

City
Venice, Italy
Stadium
Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo
Founded
1907
Head coach
Davide Nicola

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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