Ligue 1 · Matchday 9
Lille vs Lens prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Lille win 36%, draw 29%, Lens win 35%; the final score was 1:0.
Full time: Lille 1-0 Lens. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Lille" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Lille | 36.3% | most likely |
| Correct score | 1:0 | 8.9% | #2 of 31 |
| Total goals | 1 goals | 17.7% | #3 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/H | 13.8% | #4 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Lille / Lens
- 71%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
- Lens
- 64%
- Correct scoreHit
- 1:1 / 1:0
- 23%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 20%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Under
- 53%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Lille 36%, draw 29%, Lens 35% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.57 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 47%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (20%).
- Last five: Lille DDWLW (2 wins), Lens WWWLD (3 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Lille
- 1.30
- Expected goals · Lens
- 1.27
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 28% / 45% / 27%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Lille | Draw | Lens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.6% | 4.1% | 94.2% |
| Home -2 | 5.8% | 10.8% | 83.4% |
| Home -1≈ | 16.6% | 19.7% | 63.7% |
| Home +1 | 64.8% | 19.4% | 15.8% |
| Home +2 | 84.2% | 10.4% | 5.4% |
| Home +3 | 94.6% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:08.9%
- 2:06.4%
- 2:18.2%
- 3:02.8%
- 3:13.5%
- 3:22.3%
- 4:00.9%
- 4:11.2%
- 4:20.7%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.6%
- 0:08.6%
- 1:113.6%
- 2:25.2%
- 3:31.0%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:18.8%
- 0:26.2%
- 1:28.1%
- 0:32.6%
- 1:33.4%
- 2:32.2%
- 0:40.8%
- 1:41.1%
- 2:40.7%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.6%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73.7% | 47.5% | 25.8% | 11.9% |
| Under | 26.3% | 52.5% | 74.2% | 88.1% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 30.1%
- Over, even
- 17.4%
- Under, odd
- 17.7%
- Under, even
- 34.8%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 53.3%
- Both teams to score: No
- 46.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Lille
- 27.9%
- Clean-sheet probability · Lens
- 27.3%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille | 27.3% | 35.4% | 23.0% | 14.2% |
| Lens | 27.9% | 35.6% | 22.7% | 13.7% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 20.3% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 2.1% |
| Draw | D/H 13.8% | D/D 17.6% | D/A 13.5% |
| Away | A/H 2.1% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 19.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Lille
A northern French club and 2020–21 Ligue 1 champions, known for its academy and solid defence.
- City
- Lille, France
- Stadium
- Stade Pierre-Mauroy
- Founded
- 1944
- Head coach
- Davide Ancelotti
Lens
Nicknamed the Sang et Or (Blood and Gold), Lens is a northern French club that finished 2nd in Ligue 1 in 2025–26 and won the 2026 Coupe de France.
- City
- Lens, France
- Stadium
- Stade Bollaert-Delelis
- Founded
- 1906
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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