Ligue 1 · Matchday 10
Rennes vs Lille prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Rennes a 44% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 30% for Lille; the single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) with 2.97 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- Rennes / Lille
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Lille
- 56%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 26%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 57%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Rennes host Lille in Ligue 1 Matchday 10, with both sides on nine days' rest. Rennes have been erratic, losing three of their last five (including 2-5 at Nice and 0-4 at Lyon) and conceding 14 goals. Lille have won two, drawn two and lost one, scoring just five goals. Lille won three of the last four meetings. Reports, which may be incomplete, suggest Rennes are likely without Esteban Lepaul but have Brice Samba back, while Lille may miss Bentaleb (illness) and Nianzou (suspension).
The published probabilities, the market consensus of 21 bookmakers, give Rennes 44%, a draw 26% and Lille 30%. Expected goals are 1.65–1.33. The likeliest scores are 1:1 (12%), 2:1 (9%) and 1:2 (7%). Over 2.5 goals is 57% and both teams scoring is 61%.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 12:29 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Rennes (44%); expected goals Rennes 1.65 – 1.33 Lille.
- 2.97 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 57%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (26%).
- Last five: Rennes LWLWL (2 wins), Lille WDDWL (2 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Rennes 1 wins, 2 draws, Lille 3 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 21 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Rennes
- 1.65
- Expected goals · Lille
- 1.33
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 34% / 41% / 25%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Rennes | Draw | Lille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.4% | 6.4% | 90.2% |
| Home -2 | 9.8% | 13.6% | 76.6% |
| Home -1≈ | 23.4% | 20.5% | 56.1% |
| Home +1 | 70.3% | 16.3% | 13.4% |
| Home +2 | 86.6% | 8.8% | 4.6% |
| Home +3 | 95.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.3%
- 2:06.9%
- 2:19.2%
- 3:03.8%
- 3:15.1%
- 3:23.4%
- 4:01.6%
- 4:12.1%
- 4:21.4%
- 5:00.5%
- 5:10.7%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win1.6%
- 0:06.3%
- 1:112.3%
- 2:26.1%
- 3:31.5%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:15.6%
- 0:24.5%
- 1:27.4%
- 0:32.0%
- 1:33.3%
- 2:32.7%
- 0:40.7%
- 1:41.1%
- 2:40.9%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 80.8% | 57.1% | 34.7% | 18.0% |
| Under | 19.2% | 42.9% | 65.3% | 82.0% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 34.7%
- Over, even
- 22.4%
- Under, odd
- 12.9%
- Under, even
- 30.0%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 60.4%
- Both teams to score: No
- 39.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · Rennes
- 26.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · Lille
- 19.2%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 19.2% | 31.7% | 26.1% | 22.9% |
| Lille | 26.6% | 35.2% | 23.3% | 14.9% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 25.9% | H/D 5.7% | H/A 2.1% |
| Draw | D/H 15.2% | D/D 15.0% | D/A 10.9% |
| Away | A/H 2.9% | A/D 5.7% | A/A 16.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Rennes 43.9% · Draw 26.4% · Lille 29.7% · 2.5+ 57.1%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.23 | 3.60 | 3.28 | 2.75: 1.93 / 1.96 | -0.25: 1.93 / 1.97 |
| 1xBet | 2.25 | 3.84 | 3.22 | 2.5: 1.75 / 2.25 | 0: 1.68 / 2.38 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.26 | 3.55 | 3.22 | 3: 2.15 / 1.71 | -0.5: 2.26 / 1.66 |
| Coolbet | 2.20 | 3.65 | 3.30 | 2.5: 1.74 / 2.20 | -1: 3.30 / 1.38 |
| GTbets | 2.09 | 3.75 | 3.29 | 2.5: 1.66 / 2.21 | -0.5: 2.11 / 1.69 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.19 | 3.74 | 3.14 | 2.5: 1.70 / 2.18 | 0: 1.63 / 2.31 |
| Betsson | 2.18 | 3.45 | 3.15 | 2.5: 1.70 / 2.18 | – |
| Codere (IT) | 2.24 | 3.50 | 3.15 | 2.5: 1.65 / 2.06 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.12 | 3.85 | 3.45 | 2.5: 1.60 / 2.28 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 2.18 | 3.45 | 3.15 | 2.5: 1.68 / 2.15 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 1.97 | 3.45 | 3.15 | 2.5: 1.51 / 2.16 | – |
| Tipico | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.5: 1.65 / 2.20 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.04 | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.5: 1.60 / 2.28 | – |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.12 | 3.85 | 3.45 | 2.5: 1.62 / 2.33 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 21 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the bookmaker consensus already captures most of this fixture's shape: Rennes are strong at home but leak goals, while Lille grind out narrow results. The fresh news is a mild wash – Rennes are likely without striker Esteban Lepaul but get Brice Samba back, while Lille face a possible Bentaleb illness absence and a Nianzou suspension on top of longer-term injuries. The conflicting reports on Lille's rest and the unofficial lineups keep confidence low, and none of it justifies a meaningful move from the market.
- Rennes · Esteban Lepaul is expected to miss the match with an ankle sprain. He is back in training but is unlikely to be risked, and Flashscore calls him Franck Haise's only injury absentee. (moderate · flashscore.fr)
- Rennes · Brice Samba is reported fit after the discomfort that kept him out at Nice, and is expected to start in goal. One preview site claims he is injured, which conflicts with Flashscore. (minor · flashscore.fr)
- Rennes · Rennes are 5th with 16 points, 2 behind second-placed Lille, so a win would lift them above Lille. They have won their last four home league games, but they lost 2-5 at Nice last time out. (moderate · pulse.com.gh)
- Lille · Ayase Ueda and Tiago Santos are listed as injured, and Hamza Igamane has been out injured since 19 September. (moderate · unibet.fr)
- Lille · Nabil Bentaleb is struggling with illness and is a doubt for a midfield place. (moderate · flashscore.com)
- Lille · Nianzou is listed as suspended by Unibet. Another preview names Ethan Mbappé as suspended, but Flashscore's probable XI still includes Mbappé, so the sources conflict. (moderate · unibet.fr)
- Lille · Lille are 2nd with 18 points, 2 behind leaders PSG. Previews mention a 0-0 European draw at Bodø/Glimt on Tuesday, which may mean little rest or rotation. This conflicts with the 9 rest days in our data, so treat it with caution. (minor · flashscore.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Rennes
Brittany's leading club, based in Rennes and known as Les Rouge et Noirs, a long-time Ligue 1 side that finished 6th in 2025–26 and has produced many talents through its youth academy.
- City
- Rennes, France
- Stadium
- Roazhon Park
- Founded
- 1901
- Head coach
- Franck Haise
Lille
A northern French club and 2020–21 Ligue 1 champions, known for its academy and solid defence.
- City
- Lille, France
- Stadium
- Stade Pierre-Mauroy
- Founded
- 1944
- Head coach
- Davide Ancelotti
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Rennes
- L@ Nice2-5 · 10-30
- WStrasbourg3-0 · 10-25
- L@ Paris FC3-4 · 10-18
- WAuxerre4-1 · 10-11
- L@ Lyon0-4 · 09-19
Lille
- WLens1-0 · 10-30
- D@ Monaco1-1 · 10-25
- DBrest1-1 · 10-17
- WLe Havre1-0 · 10-10
- L@ Nice1-2 · 09-20
Rennes 9 days rest · Lille 9 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-03-15Rennes 1-2 LilleLigue 1
- 2026-01-03Lille 0-2 RennesLigue 1
- 2025-02-16Rennes 0-2 LilleLigue 1
- 2024-11-24Lille 1-0 RennesLigue 1
- 2024-03-10Lille 2-2 RennesLigue 1
- 2023-09-16Rennes 2-2 LilleLigue 1
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