Ligue 1 · Matchday 10
Le Havre vs Lorient prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Le Havre a 34% chance of winning, 29% for a draw and 38% for Lorient; the single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) with 2.57 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- Le Havre / Lorient
- 71%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1
- Le Havre
- 62%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 0:1
- 23%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 48%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 21%
- Over / under 2.5
- Under
- 53%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Le Havre arrive on five straight defeats, conceding 16 goals in that run, the latest a 1-5 home loss to Paris Saint-Germain. Reports say Didier Digard has been sacked, with Jaïr Karam in interim charge. Mambimbi, Zagadou and Mpasi remain long-term absentees, Seko is suspended and Pembélé and Jelert are doubtful. Lorient have won two of their last five but scored only three goals in that run, and have six days' rest to Le Havre's nine.
The market consensus makes Lorient slight favourites: away win 38%, draw 29%, home win 34%. Expected goals are 1.25–1.33. The most likely score is 1:1 (14%), followed by 0:1 and 0:0 (9% each). Over 2.5 goals stands at 48% and both teams scoring at 54%. Le Havre won the latest meeting 2-0 away in May.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 02:28 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- Evenly matched: Le Havre 34%, draw 29%, Lorient 38% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.57 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 47%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (14%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (21%).
- Last five: Le Havre LLLLL (0 wins), Lorient LDWWL (2 wins).
- Last 4 meetings in the dataset: Le Havre 2 wins, 2 draws, Lorient 0 wins.
- Rest gap: Le Havre 9 days, Lorient 6 days (not a model input).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 21 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Le Havre
- 1.24
- Expected goals · Lorient
- 1.33
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (14%)
- Half-time result
- 26% / 45% / 29%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Le Havre | Draw | Lorient |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 1.4% | 3.6% | 95.0% |
| Home -2 | 5.0% | 9.9% | 85.1% |
| Home -1 | 14.9% | 18.7% | 66.4% |
| Home +1≈ | 62.3% | 20.1% | 17.6% |
| Home +2 | 82.4% | 11.3% | 6.3% |
| Home +3 | 93.7% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:08.4%
- 2:05.9%
- 2:17.8%
- 3:02.4%
- 3:13.2%
- 3:22.2%
- 4:00.8%
- 4:11.0%
- 4:20.7%
- 5:00.2%
- 5:10.3%
- 5:20.2%
- Other home win0.6%
- 0:08.7%
- 1:113.7%
- 2:25.2%
- 3:31.0%
- Other draw0.1%
- 0:19.1%
- 0:26.7%
- 1:28.4%
- 0:33.0%
- 1:33.7%
- 2:32.3%
- 0:41.0%
- 1:41.2%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.7%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73.8% | 47.5% | 25.8% | 11.9% |
| Under | 26.2% | 52.5% | 74.2% | 88.1% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 30.1%
- Over, even
- 17.4%
- Under, odd
- 17.5%
- Under, even
- 35.1%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 53.4%
- Both teams to score: No
- 46.6%
- Clean-sheet probability · Le Havre
- 26.5%
- Clean-sheet probability · Lorient
- 28.9%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 28.9% | 35.9% | 22.3% | 13.0% |
| Lorient | 26.5% | 35.2% | 23.4% | 15.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 18.7% | H/D 5.5% | H/A 2.2% |
| Draw | D/H 12.9% | D/D 17.8% | D/A 14.2% |
| Away | A/H 2.0% | A/D 5.5% | A/A 21.3% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Le Havre 33.6% · Draw 28.7% · Lorient 37.7% · 2.5+ 47.5%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.94 | 3.33 | 2.57 | 2.25: 1.81 / 2.10 | 0: 2.09 / 1.83 |
| 1xBet | 2.84 | 3.52 | 2.64 | 2.5: 2.07 / 1.88 | 0: 2.04 / 1.91 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.90 | 3.34 | 2.56 | 2.5: 2.15 / 1.71 | 0: 2.05 / 1.81 |
| Coolbet | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.60 | 2.5: 2.07 / 1.83 | +1: 1.24 / 4.45 |
| GTbets | 2.87 | 3.37 | 2.60 | 2.5: 1.99 / 1.79 | +0.5: 1.54 / 2.44 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.76 | 3.42 | 2.57 | 2.5: 2.01 / 1.82 | 0: 1.98 / 1.85 |
| Betsson | 2.85 | 3.25 | 2.48 | 2.5: 2.03 / 1.81 | – |
| Codere (IT) | 2.90 | 3.25 | 2.50 | 2.5: 1.94 / 1.74 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.85 | 3.45 | 2.63 | 2.5: 1.93 / 1.82 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 2.85 | 3.25 | 2.48 | 2.5: 2.00 / 1.78 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 2.63 | 3.15 | 2.43 | 2.5: 1.83 / 1.72 | – |
| Tipico | 2.95 | 3.20 | 2.40 | 2.5: 1.93 / 1.83 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.50 | 2.5: 1.93 / 1.82 | – |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.85 | 3.45 | 2.63 | 2.5: 1.97 / 1.85 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 21 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the headline news – Le Havre sacking Didier Digard after the 1-5 defeat to PSG and handing Jaïr Karam the interim role – is more than a week old and already baked into the market, as are the long-term absences of Mambimbi, Zagadou and Mpasi. The newer details, Seko's suspension plus doubts over Pembélé and Jelert, leave an already porous defence thinner, which tilts things fractionally further toward Lorient despite their own blank in front of goal recently. Lorient's exceptional away defensive record and lack of recent goals make a high-scoring game slightly less likely than Le Havre's defensive numbers alone would suggest.
- Le Havre · Didier Digard was removed as Le Havre coach after the 1-5 home loss to PSG, and Jaïr Karam is in charge as interim. (major · flashscore.com)
- Le Havre · Le Havre have no win this season (D2, L7) and sit bottom of Ligue 1 on 2 points, with 20 goals conceded in 9 games. (moderate · flashscore.com)
- Le Havre · Ayumu Seko is suspended after yellow card accumulation. (moderate · sports.yahoo.com)
- Le Havre · Felix Mambimbi (Achilles rupture) and Stephan Zagadou (cruciate ligament rupture) are out long term. Goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi is also still injured, after an Achilles rupture. (moderate · pensebet.com)
- Le Havre · Timothée Pembélé (adductor) is doubtful or likely to miss out. Elias Jelert (dead leg) is also uncertain. (moderate · sportytrader.com)
- Le Havre · Arnaud Bodart replaced Gauthier Gallon in goal against PSG and conceded 5. Goalkeeper choice is uncertain. (minor · sportytrader.com)
- Lorient · Panos Katseris (three assists this season) is injured and expected to miss out again. (moderate · flashscore.com)
- Lorient · Bandiougou Fadiga is doubtful with a hamstring problem, and Mohamed Bamba is being monitored. (minor · pensebet.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Le Havre
One of France's oldest clubs, nicknamed 'Ciel et Marine', based in Normandy and back in Ligue 1 since winning Ligue 2 in 2022–23, usually playing in the lower half of the table.
- City
- Le Havre, France
- Stadium
- Stade Océane
- Founded
- 1872
- Head coach
- Didier Digard
Lorient
Nicknamed Les Merlus, this Brittany club turned 100 in 2026 and plays in Ligue 1 after winning promotion from Ligue 2 in 2025.
- City
- Lorient, France
- Stadium
- Stade du Moustoir – Yves Allainmat
- Founded
- 1926
- Head coach
- Alexandre Dujeux
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Le Havre
- LParis Saint-Germain1-5 · 10-30
- L@ Marseille3-4 · 10-25
- LAuxerre1-3 · 10-18
- L@ Lille0-1 · 10-10
- L@ Toulouse2-3 · 09-19
Lorient
- LBrest0-2 · 11-02
- D@ Angers0-0 · 10-25
- WMonaco1-0 · 10-18
- WParis FC1-0 · 10-10
- L@ Le Mans1-2 · 09-19
Le Havre 9 days rest · Lorient 6 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-05-17Lorient 0-2 Le HavreLigue 1
- 2025-09-21Le Havre 1-1 LorientLigue 1
- 2024-01-28Lorient 3-3 Le HavreLigue 1
- 2023-09-03Le Havre 3-0 LorientLigue 1
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