Ligue 1 Β· Matchday 9

Strasbourg vs Auxerre prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Strasbourg
LLLLD
5 - 1
HT 1-0
Auxerre
DWLWW

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Strasbourg win 51%, draw 24%, Auxerre win 25%; the final score was 5:1.

Full time: Strasbourg 5-1 Auxerre. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Strasbourg" β€” correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultStrasbourg51.0%most likely
Correct score5:11.1%#21 of 31
Total goals6 goals5.7%#6 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.560.4%most likely
Half-time/full-timeH/H30.9%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Strasbourg
51%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
Auxerre
49%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
21%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
45%
Half-time / full-timeHit
H/H
31%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
60%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Strasbourg (51%); expected goals Strasbourg 1.87 – 1.25 Auxerre.
  • Goals look likely: 3.12 expected in total, 60% for over 2.5 and 61% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (31%).
  • Last five: Strasbourg LLLLD (0 wins), Auxerre DWLWW (3 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Strasbourg 51%Draw 24%Auxerre 25%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· Strasbourg
1.87
Expected goals Β· Auxerre
1.25
Most likely score
1:1 (11%)
Half-time result
38% / 40% / 22%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2StrasbourgDrawAuxerre
Home -35.3%8.4%86.4%
Home -213.6%15.8%70.6%
Home -1β‰ˆ29.4%21.6%49.0%
Home +175.4%14.1%10.5%
Home +289.5%7.1%3.4%
Home +396.6%2.5%0.9%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Strasbourg Β· Home
  • 1:07.3%
  • 2:07.7%
  • 2:19.7%
  • 3:04.8%
  • 3:16.0%
  • 3:23.8%
  • 4:02.3%
  • 4:12.8%
  • 4:21.8%
  • 5:00.8%
  • 5:11.1%
  • 5:20.7%
  • Other home win2.3%
Draw
  • 0:05.3%
  • 1:111.2%
  • 2:26.0%
  • 3:31.6%
  • Other draw0.3%
Auxerre Β· Away
  • 0:14.6%
  • 0:23.4%
  • 1:26.4%
  • 0:31.4%
  • 1:32.7%
  • 2:32.5%
  • 0:40.4%
  • 1:40.8%
  • 2:40.8%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.2%
  • 2:50.2%
  • Other away win0.9%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
5.3%
1
11.9%
2
22.4%
3
22.4%
4
17.4%
5
10.9%
6
5.7%
7+
4.0%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over82.7%60.4%38.0%20.6%
Under17.3%39.6%62.0%79.4%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
36.1%
Over, even
24.2%
Under, odd
11.9%
Under, even
27.7%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
61.3%
Both teams to score: No
38.7%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Strasbourg
28.6%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Auxerre
15.4%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Strasbourg15.4%28.8%27.0%28.9%
Auxerre28.6%35.8%22.4%13.2%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
30.9%
H/D
5.4%
H/A
1.9%
Draw
D/H
16.8%
D/D
13.6%
D/A
9.2%
Away
A/H
3.3%
A/D
5.4%
A/A
13.5%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Strasbourg

Alsace-based club owned by BlueCo (also owners of Chelsea) that plays in Ligue 1, finished 8th in 2025–26 and reached the Conference League semi-finals.

City
Strasbourg, France
Stadium
Stade de la Meinau
Founded
1906
Head coach
Hugo Oliveira

Auxerre

A Burgundy club that won the 1995–96 French league and double and four Coupe de France titles under Guy Roux, and returned to Ligue 1 in 2024 after a spell in the second division.

City
Auxerre, France
Stadium
Stade de l'AbbΓ©-Deschamps
Founded
1905

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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