Ligue 1 Β· Matchday 10
Lens vs Marseille prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Lens a 42% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 34% for Marseille; the single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) with 3.30 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- Lens / Marseille
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1
- Marseille
- 58%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 20%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 43%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 25%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 64%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Lens host Marseille in Ligue 1 (Regular Season - 10) after a mixed run: three wins and two defeats in their last five, scoring 8 and conceding 6. Marseille arrive with four wins and one defeat, a 1-2 loss to Paris Saint-Germain, and have scored 14 goals in those five games. Lens have had nine days of rest against seven for Marseille, and the last four meetings were split evenly, two wins each.
Our model, blended with the consensus of 21 bookmakers, gives Lens a 42% chance of winning, with the draw at 25% and a Marseille win at 33%. Expected goals are 1.77β1.55. Over 2.5 goals stands at 64% and both teams scoring at 66%. The most likely scores are 1:1 (11%), 2:1 (9%) and 1:2 (8%).
Written Sat, Nov 7, 12:22 AM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- Evenly matched: Lens 42%, draw 25%, Marseille 34% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- Goals look likely: 3.30 expected in total, 64% for over 2.5 and 66% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (25%).
- Last five: Lens LWWWL (3 wins), Marseille WWWWL (4 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Lens 3 wins, 0 draws, Marseille 3 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 21 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Lens
- 1.75
- Expected goals Β· Marseille
- 1.55
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 33% / 39% / 28%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Lens | Draw | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.5% | 6.2% | 90.3% |
| Home -2 | 9.7% | 12.8% | 77.5% |
| Home -1β | 22.5% | 19.3% | 58.1% |
| Home +1 | 66.5% | 17.0% | 16.5% |
| Home +2 | 83.5% | 10.1% | 6.4% |
| Home +3 | 93.6% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:05.6%
- 2:05.6%
- 2:18.7%
- 3:03.3%
- 3:15.1%
- 3:24.0%
- 4:01.4%
- 4:12.2%
- 4:21.7%
- 5:00.5%
- 5:10.8%
- 5:20.6%
- Other home win2.2%
- 0:04.5%
- 1:110.9%
- 2:26.8%
- 3:32.0%
- Other draw0.4%
- 0:14.9%
- 0:24.4%
- 1:27.8%
- 0:32.3%
- 1:34.0%
- 2:33.5%
- 0:40.9%
- 1:41.6%
- 2:41.4%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.5%
- 2:50.4%
- Other away win1.7%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 85.0% | 64.1% | 42.0% | 23.8% |
| Under | 15.0% | 35.9% | 58.0% | 76.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 37.8%
- Over, even
- 26.3%
- Under, odd
- 10.4%
- Under, even
- 25.5%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 66.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 34.0%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Lens
- 21.2%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Marseille
- 17.4%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 17.4% | 30.4% | 26.6% | 25.6% |
| Marseille | 21.2% | 32.9% | 25.5% | 20.4% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 24.8% | H/D 5.8% | H/A 2.7% |
| Draw | D/H 13.9% | D/D 13.0% | D/A 11.6% |
| Away | A/H 3.1% | A/D 5.8% | A/A 19.3% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Lens 41.9% Β· Draw 24.6% Β· Marseille 33.5% Β· 2.5+ 64.1%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.34 | 3.96 | 2.85 | 3.25: 2.02 / 1.87 | -0.25: 2.06 / 1.85 |
| 1xBet | 2.27 | 4.11 | 3.00 | 3.5: 2.27 / 1.74 | 0: 1.74 / 2.27 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.35 | 3.90 | 2.83 | 3: 1.76 / 2.07 | -0.5: 2.35 / 1.61 |
| Coolbet | 2.35 | 3.90 | 2.85 | 3: 1.78 / 2.14 | -1: 3.50 / 1.34 |
| GTbets | 2.22 | 3.91 | 2.99 | 3.5: 2.12 / 1.70 | -0.5: 2.25 / 1.62 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.24 | 4.05 | 2.96 | 3.5: 2.20 / 1.69 | 0: 1.68 / 2.19 |
| Betsson | 2.28 | 3.70 | 2.82 | 2.5: 1.49 / 2.65 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 2.36 | 3.75 | 2.80 | 3.5: 2.11 / 1.62 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.28 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.5: 2.20 / 1.64 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 2.28 | 3.70 | 2.85 | 2.5: 1.48 / 2.62 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 2.12 | 3.65 | 2.75 | 3.5: 2.08 / 1.56 | β |
| Tipico | 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.80 | 3.5: 2.10 / 1.67 | β |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.18 | 3.80 | 2.85 | 3.5: 2.20 / 1.64 | β |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.28 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.5: 2.23 / 1.67 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 21 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Club profiles
Lens
Nicknamed the Sang et Or (Blood and Gold), Lens is a northern French club that finished 2nd in Ligue 1 in 2025β26 and won the 2026 Coupe de France.
- City
- Lens, France
- Stadium
- Stade Bollaert-Delelis
- Founded
- 1906
Marseille
Marseille (OM) is a historic Ligue 1 club with a huge fanbase and a Mediterranean identity, and it finished 5th in 2025β26 to qualify for the Europa League.
- City
- Marseille, France
- Stadium
- Stade VΓ©lodrome
- Founded
- 1899
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Lens
- L@ Lille0-1 Β· 10-30
- WParis FC2-1 Β· 10-24
- W@ Troyes3-1 Β· 10-17
- WLyon2-1 Β· 10-09
- L@ Monaco1-2 Β· 09-18
Marseille
- WToulouse2-0 Β· 11-01
- WLe Havre4-3 Β· 10-25
- W@ Angers5-2 Β· 10-18
- W@ Troyes2-0 Β· 10-11
- LParis Saint-Germain1-2 Β· 09-20
Lens 9 days rest Β· Marseille 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-01-24Marseille 3-1 LensLigue 1
- 2025-10-25Lens 2-1 MarseilleLigue 1
- 2025-03-08Marseille 0-1 LensLigue 1
- 2024-11-23Lens 1-3 MarseilleLigue 1
- 2024-04-28Marseille 2-1 LensLigue 1
- 2023-11-12Lens 1-0 MarseilleLigue 1
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: Ligue 1 β