Ligue 1 Β· Matchday 10
Toulouse vs Strasbourg prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Toulouse win 45%, draw 25%, Strasbourg win 30%; the final score was 3:1.
Full time: Toulouse 3-1 Strasbourg. The pre-match pick (statistical model) was "Toulouse" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Toulouse | 45.1% | most likely |
| Correct score | 3:1 | 5.3% | #8 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 17.4% | #3 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.2% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 26.7% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
ModelConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Toulouse / Strasbourg
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- Strasbourg
- 55%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 45%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 27%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 60%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The model favours Toulouse (45%); expected goals Toulouse 1.73 β 1.38 Strasbourg.
- Goals look likely: 3.11 expected in total, 60% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (27%).
- Last five: Toulouse LDWDW (2 wins), Strasbourg WLLLL (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
No prices available for this match yet β the probabilities come from the statistical model alone.
- Expected goals Β· Toulouse
- 1.73
- Expected goals Β· Strasbourg
- 1.38
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 35% / 40% / 26%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Toulouse | Draw | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.8% | 6.8% | 89.4% |
| Home -2 | 10.6% | 13.8% | 75.6% |
| Home -1β | 24.4% | 20.7% | 54.9% |
| Home +1 | 70.0% | 16.3% | 13.7% |
| Home +2 | 86.3% | 8.8% | 4.9% |
| Home +3 | 95.1% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.0%
- 2:06.7%
- 2:19.2%
- 3:03.8%
- 3:15.3%
- 3:23.7%
- 4:01.7%
- 4:12.3%
- 4:21.6%
- 5:00.6%
- 5:10.8%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win1.9%
- 0:05.2%
- 1:111.4%
- 2:26.4%
- 3:31.7%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:15.4%
- 0:24.2%
- 1:27.4%
- 0:32.0%
- 1:33.4%
- 2:32.9%
- 0:40.7%
- 1:41.2%
- 2:41.0%
- 0:50.2%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win1.1%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 82.4% | 60.2% | 37.8% | 20.4% |
| Under | 17.6% | 39.8% | 62.2% | 79.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 36.1%
- Over, even
- 24.1%
- Under, odd
- 12.4%
- Under, even
- 27.5%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 62.4%
- Both teams to score: No
- 37.6%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Toulouse
- 25.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Strasbourg
- 17.7%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 17.7% | 30.7% | 26.5% | 25.1% |
| Strasbourg | 25.1% | 34.7% | 24.0% | 16.2% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 26.7% | H/D 5.6% | H/A 2.3% |
| Draw | D/H 15.3% | D/D 13.8% | D/A 10.9% |
| Away | A/H 3.1% | A/D 5.6% | A/A 16.9% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Toulouse
Toulouse are a southern French club, owned by RedBird Capital, who won the 2022β23 Coupe de France and are known for developing young players in Ligue 1.
- City
- Toulouse, France
- Stadium
- Stadium de Toulouse
- Founded
- 1937
- Head coach
- Jens Berthel Askou
Strasbourg
Alsace-based club owned by BlueCo (also owners of Chelsea) that plays in Ligue 1, finished 8th in 2025β26 and reached the Conference League semi-finals.
- City
- Strasbourg, France
- Stadium
- Stade de la Meinau
- Founded
- 1906
- Head coach
- Hugo Oliveira
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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