Ligue 1 · Matchday 10
Le Mans vs Monaco prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Le Mans a 21% chance of winning, 23% for a draw and 56% for Monaco; the single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) with 3.10 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Monaco
- 56%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1
- Le Mans
- 44%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 20%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 45%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 34%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 60%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Le Mans host Monaco on Ligue 1 matchday 10 having won just one of their last five, a 2-1 against Lorient, with defeats by Troyes, Toulouse and PSG and a 1-1 at Auxerre. Monaco's run is no better: one win (2-1 v Lens), two draws and two losses, including 1-3 at Paris FC. Rest is 8 days for the hosts and 7 for the visitors, who reportedly played in Europe on Thursday and are without Fati and Idumbo. Le Mans' injury list is said to be at least as long.
The published probabilities, the market consensus, favour Monaco at 56%, with a draw at 23% and a Le Mans win at 22%. Expected goals are 1.15–1.95. The likeliest scores are 1:1 (11%), 1:2 (10%) and 0:2 (9%). Over 2.5 goals is at 60% and both teams scoring at 59%, which points to an open game.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 02:28 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Monaco (56%); expected goals Le Mans 1.14 – 1.95 Monaco.
- Goals look likely: 3.10 expected in total, 60% for over 2.5 and 59% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (34%).
- Last five: Le Mans LDLLW (1 wins), Monaco LDLDW (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 22 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Le Mans
- 1.14
- Expected goals · Monaco
- 1.95
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 20% / 39% / 41%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Le Mans | Draw | Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.6% | 1.9% | 97.4% |
| Home -2 | 2.6% | 5.9% | 91.6% |
| Home -1 | 8.4% | 13.0% | 78.5% |
| Home +1≈ | 44.4% | 22.6% | 33.0% |
| Home +2 | 67.0% | 17.1% | 15.9% |
| Home +3 | 84.1% | 9.5% | 6.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:04.7%
- 2:03.0%
- 2:15.8%
- 3:01.1%
- 3:12.2%
- 3:22.2%
- 4:00.3%
- 4:10.6%
- 4:20.6%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.7%
- 0:05.0%
- 1:110.6%
- 2:25.6%
- 3:31.4%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:18.3%
- 0:28.6%
- 1:29.9%
- 0:35.6%
- 1:36.4%
- 2:33.7%
- 0:42.7%
- 1:43.1%
- 2:41.8%
- 0:51.1%
- 1:51.2%
- 2:50.7%
- Other away win2.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 82.0% | 59.8% | 37.4% | 20.1% |
| Under | 18.0% | 40.2% | 62.6% | 79.9% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 35.9%
- Over, even
- 23.9%
- Under, odd
- 13.0%
- Under, even
- 27.2%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 59.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 41.0%
- Clean-sheet probability · Le Mans
- 14.2%
- Clean-sheet probability · Monaco
- 31.8%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 31.8% | 36.4% | 20.9% | 10.9% |
| Monaco | 14.2% | 27.7% | 27.1% | 31.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 11.7% | H/D 5.0% | H/A 3.4% |
| Draw | D/H 8.2% | D/D 12.9% | D/A 18.0% |
| Away | A/H 1.6% | A/D 5.0% | A/A 34.2% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Le Mans 21.5% · Draw 22.9% · Monaco 55.6% · 2.5+ 59.8%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 4.59 | 4.43 | 1.69 | 3: 2.00 / 1.88 | +0.75: 2.01 / 1.89 |
| 1xBet | 4.41 | 4.31 | 1.80 | 2.5: 1.64 / 2.46 | +1.5: 1.45 / 3.08 |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.58 | 4.40 | 1.69 | 3: 1.94 / 1.87 | +0.5: 2.20 / 1.69 |
| Coolbet | 4.60 | 4.40 | 1.70 | 3: 2.00 / 1.89 | +1: 1.73 / 2.21 |
| GTbets | 4.50 | 4.01 | 1.76 | 2.5: 1.57 / 2.35 | +0.5: 2.15 / 1.68 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.75 | 2.5: 1.59 / 2.39 | +1: 1.64 / 2.29 |
| Betsson | 4.65 | 4.00 | 1.68 | 2.5: 1.60 / 2.36 | – |
| Codere (IT) | 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.72 | 2.5: 1.55 / 2.24 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.60 | 4.25 | 1.75 | 2.5: 1.56 / 2.35 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 4.65 | 4.00 | 1.68 | 2.5: 1.58 / 2.32 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 4.10 | 3.80 | 1.65 | 2.5: 1.49 / 2.23 | – |
| Tipico | 4.70 | 4.30 | 1.60 | 3.5: 2.30 / 1.55 | – |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.30 | 4.00 | 1.70 | 2.5: 1.56 / 2.35 | – |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.60 | 4.25 | 1.75 | 2.5: 1.57 / 2.38 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 22 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the team news does little to shift the picture: Monaco's absences of Fati and Idumbo and their Thursday European outing were already widely known, while Le Mans' own injury list is at least as long. Monaco's poor league run and shaky defence make this less of a formality than their status suggests, but the bookmaker consensus already reflects that. The match looks open at both ends, with goals reasonably likely.
- Monaco · Monaco will be without Ansu Fati (hamstring, not expected back before 2027) and Stanis Idumbo (psoas/back, relapse). Filipe Luis confirmed Idumbo's absence at his Saturday press conference. (moderate · ladiagonale.net)
- Monaco · Monaco have won none of their last four Ligue 1 games. They lost 3-1 at Paris FC last time out, and attacking injuries and defensive lapses are blamed. (moderate · beinsports.com)
- Monaco · Monaco played in the Conference League on Thursday 5 November, beating Nordsjælland 2-0. That leaves a short turnaround and some rotation risk. (moderate · beinsports.com)
- Monaco · Eric Dier is reported back in contention after a thigh injury and may start at centre-back. Another preview lists him as out, so this is unconfirmed. (minor · whoscored.com)
- Le Mans · Le Mans are without Djibril Sidibé (foot), Adil Bourabaa (ankle, out until about January) and Théo Eyoum (out until about mid-November). Martin Rossignol is a doubt. (moderate · whoscored.com)
- Le Mans · Erwan Colas (back) is close to returning after about 2.5 months out. Ouest-France reports he could be in the squad, probably as a substitute. (minor · rotowire.com)
- Le Mans · Le Mans are 17th, in the last relegation place, and winless in their last four league games. They are a point behind Angers (the first safe place). A home win would matter a lot for their survival. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Le Mans · Harold Voyer (thigh) and Yasser Larouci (groin) were doubtful in some previews. WhoScored says Voyer is fit to start in the back three and Larouci is available, but the reports conflict. (minor · whoscored.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Le Mans
A Sarthe club nicknamed Les Sang et Or, formed in 1985 by a merger, which rose from the National division to Ligue 2 in 2025 and is playing in Ligue 1 in 2026–27.
- City
- Le Mans, France
- Stadium
- Stade Marie-Marvingt (MMArena)
- Founded
- 1985
- Head coach
- Patrick Videira
Monaco
A Monaco-based club that plays in the French league system and has won multiple Ligue 1 titles, most recently in 2016–17. It finished 7th in Ligue 1 in 2025–26 and reached the Champions League knockout phase play-offs.
- City
- Monaco, Monaco
- Stadium
- Stade Louis II
- Founded
- 1924
- Head coach
- Sébastien Pocognoli
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Le Mans
- L@ Troyes0-2 · 10-31
- D@ Auxerre1-1 · 10-25
- LToulouse0-3 · 10-16
- L@ Paris Saint-Germain1-3 · 10-10
- WLorient2-1 · 09-19
Monaco
- L@ Paris FC1-3 · 11-01
- DLille1-1 · 10-25
- L@ Lorient0-1 · 10-18
- DToulouse2-2 · 10-10
- WLens2-1 · 09-18
Le Mans 8 days rest · Monaco 7 days rest
Head to head
No recent meetings in the dataset.
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