Club football · AI probability model

MLS predictions, table and team ratings 2026

495 MLS matches played this season, 3.26 goals per game; Vancouver Whitecaps FC top the model's strength ranking. The 15 fixtures below each carry 1X2, correct-score, total-goals and HT/FT probabilities.

Data updated: 2026-11-07 16:20 UTC · Source: api-football

Upcoming match predictions

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Chicago Fire FCvsColumbus Crew
Home 50%Draw 23%Away 26%
Most likely score
1:1 10%
Expected total goals
3.33
Over / under 2.5
Over 65%

AI picks: Chicago Fire FC · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
FC CincinnativsNashville SC
Home 36%Draw 25%Away 38%
Most likely score
1:1 11%
Expected total goals
3.20
Over / under 2.5
Over 62%

AI picks: FC Cincinnati/Nashville SC · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
D.C. UnitedvsNew York City FC
Home 31%Draw 28%Away 42%
Most likely score
1:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.78
Over / under 2.5
Over 52%

AI picks: D.C. United/New York City FC · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
Inter MiamivsCharlotte FC
Home 69%Draw 17%Away 15%
Most likely score
2:1 9%
Expected total goals
4.05
Over / under 2.5
Over 77%

AI picks: Inter Miami · 2:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
CF MontréalvsVancouver Whitecaps FC
Home 21%Draw 22%Away 57%
Most likely score
1:1 10%
Expected total goals
3.29
Over / under 2.5
Over 64%

AI picks: Vancouver Whitecaps FC · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
New York Red BullsvsAtlanta United FC
Home 51%Draw 22%Away 27%
Most likely score
1:1 9%
Expected total goals
3.84
Over / under 2.5
Over 74%

AI picks: New York Red Bulls · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Orlando City SCvsNew England Revolution
Home 48%Draw 23%Away 29%
Most likely score
1:1 9%
Expected total goals
3.71
Over / under 2.5
Over 72%

AI picks: Orlando City SC/New England Revolution · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
Philadelphia UnionvsToronto FC
Home 66%Draw 19%Away 15%
Most likely score
2:1 10%
Expected total goals
3.48
Over / under 2.5
Over 68%

AI picks: Philadelphia Union · 2:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Austin FCvsPortland Timbers
Home 23%Draw 22%Away 55%
Most likely score
1:1 9%
Expected total goals
3.60
Over / under 2.5
Over 70%

AI picks: Portland Timbers · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
FC DallasvsColorado Rapids
Home 48%Draw 26%Away 26%
Most likely score
1:1 12%
Expected total goals
2.95
Over / under 2.5
Over 57%

AI picks: FC Dallas/Colorado Rapids · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
Houston DynamovsSt. Louis City SC
Home 37%Draw 27%Away 36%
Most likely score
1:1 13%
Expected total goals
2.98
Over / under 2.5
Over 57%

AI picks: Houston Dynamo/St. Louis City SC · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Minnesota United FCvsSan Jose Earthquakes
Home 56%Draw 22%Away 22%
Most likely score
1:1 10%
Expected total goals
3.49
Over / under 2.5
Over 68%

AI picks: Minnesota United FC · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Real Salt LakevsLA Galaxy
Home 55%Draw 22%Away 23%
Most likely score
1:1 10%
Expected total goals
3.49
Over / under 2.5
Over 68%

AI picks: Real Salt Lake · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
San Diego FCvsSporting Kansas City
Home 61%Draw 20%Away 20%
Most likely score
2:1 9%
Expected total goals
3.88
Over / under 2.5
Over 74%

AI picks: San Diego FC · 2:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Seattle SoundersvsLos Angeles FC
Home 48%Draw 25%Away 27%
Most likely score
1:1 12%
Expected total goals
3.11
Over / under 2.5
Over 60%

AI picks: Seattle Sounders/Los Angeles FC · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Table · 2026

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsLast 5
1Nashville SC3322836925+4474WDWDW
2Vancouver Whitecaps FC3318787234+3861WWLWD
3Inter Miami33161167756+2159WDLWW
4New England Revolution33184115546+958LWWWW
5Chicago Fire FC33167106150+1155WDWLL
6FC Dallas33151085950+955DLWDW
7Charlotte FC33158106348+1553WWLDL
8San Jose Earthquakes33141095648+852WDLDD
9St. Louis City SC33149105848+1051LLLLD
10Houston Dynamo33149104342+151LWDDD
11Los Angeles FC331211105138+1347LDDWD
12Philadelphia Union33138126251+1147LDLDW
13FC Cincinnati331210116773-646WDWWL
14Columbus Crew33135155549+644WWWWW
15LA Galaxy331111114955-644WDDWL
16Portland Timbers33127146061-143WWWDL
17Colorado Rapids33127144647-143LDWDD
18Seattle Sounders331110124245-343LLDDL
19Orlando City SC33127146278-1643LDDWD
20Real Salt Lake33126155151042LWWWD
21Minnesota United FC331011125357-441WWDWD
22New York City FC33912124845+339DWDDL
23Toronto FC33912125163-1239LWLWD
24New York Red Bulls33116164562-1739LLWLL
25San Diego FC33911135762-538WLDDD
26Austin FC33810154263-2134LLWLL
27Atlanta United FC3396184357-1433WLLLW
28D.C. United33712143960-2133LLLLL
29CF Montréal3368193767-3026DLLDL
30Sporting Kansas City3365223981-4223DLLLL

Model strength ratings

#TeamGoal-difference strengthAttack indexDefence index (lower is better)Expected goals +/−
1Vancouver Whitecaps FC+0.721.250.801.98 / 1.26
2Nashville SC+0.721.160.711.84 / 1.12
3Inter Miami+0.671.330.912.10 / 1.44
4Philadelphia Union+0.581.190.821.88 / 1.30
5Chicago Fire FC+0.321.150.941.81 / 1.49
6Los Angeles FC+0.281.030.861.64 / 1.36
7Columbus Crew+0.281.070.891.69 / 1.41
8St. Louis City SC+0.151.040.951.65 / 1.50
9Charlotte FC+0.131.070.991.70 / 1.57
10FC Cincinnati+0.071.101.061.74 / 1.67
11Seattle Sounders+0.050.980.941.54 / 1.49
12Minnesota United FC+0.041.041.011.64 / 1.60
13FC Dallas+0.040.960.941.52 / 1.49
14New York City FC+0.030.900.881.43 / 1.40
15New England Revolution+0.030.980.961.55 / 1.52
16Real Salt Lake-0.020.970.981.53 / 1.55
17Houston Dynamo-0.040.850.871.34 / 1.38
18Colorado Rapids-0.070.870.921.38 / 1.45
19Portland Timbers-0.071.021.071.62 / 1.69
20Orlando City SC-0.091.101.161.74 / 1.83
21San Diego FC-0.101.031.101.64 / 1.74
22LA Galaxy-0.191.001.121.57 / 1.77
23New York Red Bulls-0.210.961.091.51 / 1.72
24Atlanta United FC-0.210.921.051.45 / 1.66
25San Jose Earthquakes-0.240.931.081.47 / 1.71
26Toronto FC-0.290.921.101.46 / 1.75
27D.C. United-0.530.791.121.25 / 1.78
28CF Montréal-0.590.761.141.21 / 1.80
29Austin FC-0.610.801.191.27 / 1.88
30Sporting Kansas City-0.830.831.351.31 / 2.14

Recent results: pre-match probability vs outcome

3/6Hit
Portland Timbers3 - 1Houston Dynamo
Home 54%Draw 24%Away 22%

AI picks: Portland Timbers · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Miss
Los Angeles FC1 - 3Minnesota United FC
Home 54%Draw 23%Away 23%

AI picks: Los Angeles FC · 1:1 · Over 2.5

4/6Hit
New England Revolution1 - 2Inter Miami
Home 33%Draw 24%Away 43%

AI picks: New England Revolution/Inter Miami · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Hit
Nashville SC3 - 2New York Red Bulls
Home 67%Draw 18%Away 16%

AI picks: Nashville SC · 2:1 · Over 2.5

4/6Hit
Atlanta United FC3 - 1Toronto FC
Home 47%Draw 23%Away 30%

AI picks: Atlanta United FC/Toronto FC · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Hit
Vancouver Whitecaps FC5 - 1Seattle Sounders
Home 51%Draw 23%Away 26%

AI picks: Vancouver Whitecaps FC · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Miss
Colorado Rapids2 - 4Chicago Fire FC
Home 41%Draw 26%Away 34%

AI picks: Colorado Rapids/Chicago Fire FC · 1:1 · Over 2.5

4/6Miss
San Jose Earthquakes2 - 1Real Salt Lake
Home 38%Draw 25%Away 38%

AI picks: San Jose Earthquakes/Real Salt Lake · 1:1 · Over 2.5

4/6Hit
LA Galaxy4 - 1Austin FC
Home 69%Draw 17%Away 14%

AI picks: LA Galaxy · 2:1 · Over 2.5

1/6Miss
St. Louis City SC0 - 1San Diego FC
Home 59%Draw 20%Away 21%

AI picks: St. Louis City SC · 2:1 · Over 2.5

2026 · Matches 495 · 1X2 accuracy 49.7% · RPS 0.210

Season pick record by market

Play2026 · n=495
1X2 (match result)65.3%
1X2 (match result) · Confidence High69.9%
Handicap 1X253.7%
Correct score (top 2)19.6%
Total goals (top 2)42.8%
Half-time / full-time30.9%
Over / under 2.561.4%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

League season stats

Goals per game
3.26
Home wins
45.9%
Draws
26.1%
Away wins
28.1%
Over 2.5
64.4%
Both teams score
64.2%
Matches
495
HT / FT
44.9%

Total goals (0–7+)

0
4.9%
1
12.1%
2
18.6%
3
22.8%
4
18.4%
5
12.1%
6
6.9%
7+
4.2%

Half-time / full-time

H/H
29.1%
H/D
5.5%
H/A
2.4%
D/H
12.3%
D/D
12.5%
D/A
9.3%
A/H
4.4%
A/D
8.1%
A/A
16.4%