MLS · Matchday 34
Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City SC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Houston Dynamo a 37% chance of winning, 27% for a draw and 36% for St. Louis City SC; the single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) with 2.98 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- Houston Dynamo / St. Louis City SC
- 73%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- St. Louis City SC
- 63%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 22%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 57%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Houston Dynamo have lost just once in their last five (one win, three draws, a 1-3 defeat at Portland), while St Louis City have lost four of five and drew the other 0-0. Houston have six days' rest, St Louis seven. Pre-match reports say Houston need a win but may be without Guilherme and Héctor Herrera and could field a third-choice goalkeeper, while a draw may be enough for St Louis. The last four meetings were split two wins each.
The probabilities are almost level: Houston 37%, draw 27%, St Louis 36%. Expected goals are 1.51–1.47, and 1:1 (13%) is the most likely score, ahead of 2:1 and 1:2 (8% each). Over 2.5 goals stands at 57% and both teams scoring at 61%.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 11:12 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- Evenly matched: Houston Dynamo 37%, draw 27%, St. Louis City SC 36% — no clear lean from the probabilities.
- 2.98 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 57%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (13%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (22%).
- Last five: Houston Dynamo LWDDD (1 wins), St. Louis City SC LLLLD (0 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Houston Dynamo 2 wins, 2 draws, St. Louis City SC 2 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 23 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Houston Dynamo
- 1.50
- Expected goals · St. Louis City SC
- 1.48
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (13%)
- Half-time result
- 30% / 41% / 29%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Houston Dynamo | Draw | St. Louis City SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.3% | 4.9% | 92.9% |
| Home -2 | 7.1% | 11.4% | 81.5% |
| Home -1≈ | 18.5% | 18.6% | 62.9% |
| Home +1 | 64.0% | 18.3% | 17.7% |
| Home +2 | 82.3% | 11.0% | 6.7% |
| Home +3 | 93.3% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:06.3%
- 2:05.7%
- 2:18.5%
- 3:02.9%
- 3:14.3%
- 3:23.1%
- 4:01.1%
- 4:11.6%
- 4:21.2%
- 5:00.3%
- 5:10.5%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.3%
- 0:06.3%
- 1:112.5%
- 2:26.3%
- 3:31.5%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:16.2%
- 0:25.5%
- 1:28.3%
- 0:32.7%
- 1:34.1%
- 2:33.1%
- 0:41.0%
- 1:41.5%
- 2:41.1%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.4%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win1.2%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 81.1% | 57.3% | 34.9% | 18.2% |
| Under | 18.9% | 42.7% | 65.1% | 81.8% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 34.8%
- Over, even
- 22.5%
- Under, odd
- 12.6%
- Under, even
- 30.1%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 61.3%
- Both teams to score: No
- 38.7%
- Clean-sheet probability · Houston Dynamo
- 22.8%
- Clean-sheet probability · St. Louis City SC
- 22.2%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 22.2% | 33.4% | 25.1% | 19.2% |
| St. Louis City SC | 22.8% | 33.7% | 24.9% | 18.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 21.5% | H/D 5.9% | H/A 2.5% |
| Draw | D/H 13.1% | D/D 15.2% | D/A 12.7% |
| Away | A/H 2.5% | A/D 5.9% | A/A 20.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Houston Dynamo 37.1% · Draw 26.9% · St. Louis City SC 36.0% · 2.5+ 57.3%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.66 | 3.64 | 2.60 | 2.75: 1.82 / 2.07 | 0: 1.96 / 1.93 |
| 1xBet | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.69 | 2.5: 1.67 / 2.31 | +1.5: 1.15 / 4.71 |
| BetAnything | 2.59 | 3.50 | 2.54 | 2.75: 1.79 / 2.06 | 0: 1.95 / 1.87 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.67 | 3.57 | 2.63 | 3: 2.03 / 1.74 | 0: 1.92 / 1.87 |
| Coolbet | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.55 | 3: 2.10 / 1.71 | +1: 1.23 / 4.00 |
| GTbets | 2.48 | 3.57 | 2.74 | 2.5: 1.65 / 2.21 | -0.5: 2.55 / 1.50 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.51 | 3.46 | 2.58 | 2.5: 1.64 / 2.17 | 0: 1.84 / 1.89 |
| Matchbook | 2.70 | 3.70 | 2.64 | 2.5: 1.69 / 2.30 | 0: 1.96 / 1.93 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.53 | 3.55 | 2.62 | 2.5: 1.61 / 2.22 | -0.5: 2.45 / 1.51 |
| Betsson | 2.62 | 3.45 | 2.62 | 2.5: 1.62 / 2.22 | – |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.80 | 2.5: 1.67 / 2.15 | – |
| Nordic Bet | 2.62 | 3.45 | 2.62 | 2.5: 1.62 / 2.22 | – |
| PMU (FR) | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.55 | 2.5: 1.56 / 2.02 | – |
| Tipico | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.55 | 2.5: 1.55 / 2.20 | – |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 23 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Houston need a win but may be without talisman Guilherme and Héctor Herrera, and look set to field a third-choice goalkeeper behind a patched-up defence. St Louis arrive in dreadful form with just one goal in three league games, yet a draw may be enough for them. We nudge the home chance slightly below the market and trim the over 2.5 goals probability given both attacks' concerns.
- Houston Dynamo · Guilherme (16 goals, 10 assists, involved in about 62% of Houston's league goals) and Héctor Herrera both missed the Portland game and are doubtful. (major · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Houston Dynamo · Goalkeeper Jimmy Maurer is out with a back injury. Jonathan Bond was pulled from the Portland line-up in the warm-up and is listed as not expected to play, so Blake Gillingham may start again. (moderate · foxsports.com)
- Houston Dynamo · Franco Negri was substituted in the 36th minute at Portland and is listed as injured or doubtful. Marcelo Saracchi remains out, and Felipe Andrade returned from injury off the bench. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Houston Dynamo · Houston are fifth in the West, and Sports Mole says they must win. They are coming off a 3-1 loss at Portland, after a 1-0 win at Seattle. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- St. Louis City SC · Goalkeeper Roman Bürki returned to training on 3 Nov after a concussion suffered in the Open Cup final. Coach Damet says he won't rush him, so Lundt is the likely alternative. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- St. Louis City SC · Alexandru Mățan, who missed the last three league games with a lower-leg injury, was back in training on 3 Nov and may only make the bench. Célio Pompeu remains out. (minor · foxsports.com)
- St. Louis City SC · St Louis arrive on a four-game losing run, with only one goal scored in their last three league games. Sports Mole suggests a draw may be enough for them. (moderate · foxsports.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo are a Texas-based MLS club that won the MLS Cup in 2006 and 2007 and the U.S. Open Cup in 2018 and 2023, and they qualified for the 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs under Ben Olsen.
- City
- Houston, United States
- Stadium
- Shell Energy Stadium
- Founded
- 2005
- Head coach
- Ben Olsen
St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC is an MLS expansion club that began play in 2023 and is known for its passionate home support at Energizer Park, and it is now led by Yoann Damet, who was appointed in December 2025.
- City
- St. Louis, United States
- Stadium
- Energizer Park
- Founded
- 2019
- Head coach
- Yoann Damet
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Houston Dynamo
- L@ Portland Timbers1-3 · 11-02
- W@ Seattle Sounders1-0 · 10-29
- DMinnesota United FC0-0 · 10-25
- DFC Dallas2-2 · 10-18
- D@ San Diego FC3-3 · 10-15
St. Louis City SC
- LSan Diego FC0-1 · 10-31
- LPortland Timbers2-3 · 10-29
- L@ Real Salt Lake0-3 · 10-25
- L@ Minnesota United FC2-3 · 10-17
- DVancouver Whitecaps FC0-0 · 10-15
Houston Dynamo 6 days rest · St. Louis City SC 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-08-23St. Louis City SC 2-1 Houston DynamoMLS
- 2025-08-31St. Louis City SC 2-3 Houston DynamoMLS
- 2025-06-29Houston Dynamo 1-0 St. Louis City SCMLS
- 2024-10-06St. Louis City SC 3-0 Houston DynamoMLS
- 2024-05-05Houston Dynamo 0-0 St. Louis City SCMLS
- 2023-09-17Houston Dynamo 1-1 St. Louis City SCMLS