MLS Β· Matchday 33
Colorado Rapids vs Chicago Fire FC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Colorado Rapids win 41%, draw 26%, Chicago Fire FC win 34%; the final score was 2:4.
Full time: Colorado Rapids 2-4 Chicago Fire FC. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Colorado Rapids" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Chicago Fire FC | 33.7% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 2:4 | 1.5% | #22 of 31 |
| Total goals | 6 goals | 6.9% | #6 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | D/A | 11.2% | #5 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Colorado Rapids / Chicago Fire FC
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
- Chicago Fire FC
- 59%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 20%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 43%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 24%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 65%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: Colorado Rapids 41%, draw 26%, Chicago Fire FC 34% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- Goals look likely: 3.36 expected in total, 65% for over 2.5 and 68% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (24%).
- Last five: Colorado Rapids DWDDD (1 wins), Chicago Fire FC DWLLW (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Colorado Rapids
- 1.76
- Expected goals Β· Chicago Fire FC
- 1.60
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 33% / 38% / 29%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Colorado Rapids | Draw | Chicago Fire FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.4% | 6.1% | 90.4% |
| Home -2 | 9.6% | 12.6% | 77.8% |
| Home -1β | 22.2% | 18.3% | 59.5% |
| Home +1 | 66.3% | 16.5% | 17.2% |
| Home +2 | 82.8% | 10.4% | 6.8% |
| Home +3 | 93.2% | 4.6% | 2.2% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:04.6%
- 2:05.4%
- 2:18.6%
- 3:03.2%
- 3:15.1%
- 3:24.0%
- 4:01.4%
- 4:12.2%
- 4:21.8%
- 5:00.5%
- 5:10.8%
- 5:20.6%
- Other home win2.4%
- 0:05.0%
- 1:111.3%
- 2:26.9%
- 3:32.2%
- Other draw0.4%
- 0:14.0%
- 0:24.4%
- 1:27.8%
- 0:32.4%
- 1:34.2%
- 2:33.7%
- 0:40.9%
- 1:41.7%
- 2:41.5%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.5%
- 2:50.5%
- Other away win1.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 86.4% | 65.3% | 43.3% | 24.9% |
| Under | 13.6% | 34.7% | 56.7% | 75.1% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 38.3%
- Over, even
- 27.0%
- Under, odd
- 8.6%
- Under, even
- 26.2%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 67.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 32.4%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Colorado Rapids
- 20.2%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Chicago Fire FC
- 17.2%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rapids | 17.2% | 30.3% | 26.7% | 25.9% |
| Chicago Fire FC | 20.2% | 32.3% | 25.8% | 21.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 24.4% | H/D 6.2% | H/A 2.6% |
| Draw | D/H 13.0% | D/D 13.4% | D/A 11.2% |
| Away | A/H 3.0% | A/D 6.2% | A/A 19.9% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Colorado Rapids
Founding MLS club from the Denver area and 2010 MLS Cup champions, now under Matt Wells, who has brought a possession-based approach after the team missed the 2025 playoffs.
- City
- Commerce City, Colorado, United States
- Stadium
- Dick's Sporting Goods Park
- Founded
- 1995
- Head coach
- Matt Wells
Chicago Fire FC
A Major League Soccer club from Chicago, now led by Gregg Berhalter, that reached the MLS playoffs in 2025 for the first time since 2017 and plans to move into a new stadium around 2028.
- City
- Chicago, Illinois, United States
- Stadium
- Soldier Field
- Founded
- 1997
- Head coach
- Gregg Berhalter
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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