MLS Β· Matchday 34
San Diego FC vs Sporting Kansas City prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives San Diego FC a 61% chance of winning, 20% for a draw and 20% for Sporting Kansas City; the single most likely score is 2:1 (9%) with 3.88 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)
- San Diego FC
- 61%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1
- San Diego FC
- 40%
- Correct score
- 2:1 / 1:1
- 17%
- Total goals
- 3 / 4 goals
- 40%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 39%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 74%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
San Diego host Sporting Kansas City in Regular Season round 34 of MLS, with both sides on seven days' rest. The hosts have taken one win, three draws and one defeat from their last five, including 2-2 and 3-3 home draws. Kansas City have one draw and four losses in that run, are winless in seven and have conceded a club-record 81 goals. Nothing is at stake for either team, injury doubts hang over both squads and some rotation is likely. San Diego won the last two meetings, 1-0 and 2-0, after a 0-0 draw in May 2025.
The published probabilities blend our model with the consensus of 23 bookmakers: San Diego 63%, draw 19%, Kansas City 18%. Expected goals are 2.59β1.37. Over 2.5 goals stands at 76% and both teams scoring at 70%. The most likely scores are 2:1 (9%), 3:1 (8%) and 1:1 (7%).
Written Fri, Nov 6, 11:13 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour San Diego FC (61%); expected goals San Diego FC 2.48 β 1.40 Sporting Kansas City.
- Goals look likely: 3.88 expected in total, 74% for over 2.5 and 70% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:1 (9%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (39%).
- Last five: San Diego FC WLDDD (1 wins), Sporting Kansas City DLLLL (0 wins).
- Last 3 meetings in the dataset: San Diego FC 2 wins, 1 draws, Sporting Kansas City 0 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 23 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· San Diego FC
- 2.48
- Expected goals Β· Sporting Kansas City
- 1.40
- Most likely score
- 2:1 (9%)
- Half-time result
- 46% / 33% / 20%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | San Diego FC | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 10.7% | 11.8% | 77.5% |
| Home -2 | 22.5% | 17.8% | 59.7% |
| Home -1β | 40.3% | 20.3% | 39.4% |
| Home +1 | 80.3% | 11.1% | 8.6% |
| Home +2 | 91.4% | 5.6% | 2.9% |
| Home +3 | 97.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:04.5%
- 2:06.4%
- 2:18.9%
- 3:05.3%
- 3:17.4%
- 3:25.1%
- 4:03.3%
- 4:14.6%
- 4:23.2%
- 5:01.6%
- 5:12.3%
- 5:21.6%
- Other home win6.6%
- 0:02.7%
- 1:17.8%
- 2:26.2%
- 3:32.4%
- Other draw0.6%
- 0:12.2%
- 0:22.0%
- 1:25.0%
- 0:30.9%
- 1:32.3%
- 2:32.9%
- 0:40.3%
- 1:40.8%
- 2:41.0%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.3%
- Other away win1.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 90.6% | 74.4% | 54.3% | 34.8% |
| Under | 9.4% | 25.6% | 45.7% | 65.2% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 42.0%
- Over, even
- 32.4%
- Under, odd
- 6.7%
- Under, even
- 18.9%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 69.6%
- Both teams to score: No
- 30.4%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· San Diego FC
- 24.7%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Sporting Kansas City
- 8.4%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego FC | 8.4% | 20.7% | 25.7% | 45.2% |
| Sporting Kansas City | 24.7% | 34.6% | 24.1% | 16.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 39.3% | H/D 5.1% | H/A 1.9% |
| Draw | D/H 16.9% | D/D 9.7% | D/A 6.8% |
| Away | A/H 4.3% | A/D 5.1% | A/A 11.0% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): San Diego FC 60.6% Β· Draw 19.8% Β· Sporting Kansas City 19.7% Β· 2.5+ 74.4%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.95 | 4.70 | 3.75: 1.90 / 1.97 | -1: 1.93 / 1.95 |
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 4.95 | 4.95 | 3.5: 1.70 / 2.25 | -1.5: 2.24 / 1.71 |
| BetAnything | 1.57 | 5.10 | 4.92 | 4: 2.17 / 1.73 | -1: 1.89 / 1.93 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.57 | 5.10 | 4.92 | 4: 2.06 / 1.73 | -1: 1.82 / 2.00 |
| Coolbet | 1.56 | 4.70 | 5.10 | 4: 2.07 / 1.73 | -1: 1.82 / 1.96 |
| GTbets | 1.52 | 4.79 | 4.95 | 3.5: 1.68 / 2.22 | -1.5: 2.21 / 1.61 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.53 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 3.5: 1.67 / 2.13 | -1.5: 2.25 / 1.59 |
| Matchbook | 1.62 | 5.00 | 4.90 | 3.5: 1.74 / 2.22 | -1: 1.92 / 1.97 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.53 | 5.10 | 4.80 | 3.5: 1.69 / 2.08 | -1.5: 2.19 / 1.63 |
| Betsson | 1.55 | 4.80 | 4.90 | 2.5: 1.27 / 3.70 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.55 | 4.90 | 5.50 | 3.5: 1.71 / 2.10 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 1.55 | 4.80 | 4.90 | 2.5: 1.27 / 3.70 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 1.43 | 4.30 | 4.75 | 3.5: 1.60 / 1.95 | β |
| Tipico | 1.50 | 4.60 | 4.70 | 3.5: 1.60 / 2.15 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 23 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
San Diego are strong favourites at home against a Sporting Kansas City side that has conceded a club-record 81 goals and is winless in seven. With nothing at stake for either team and injury doubts on both sides, some rotation is likely, but this is already reflected in the market. Expect goals: both defences have been porous, and the market's 76% for over 2.5 looks fair.
- San Diego FC Β· San Diego are already eliminated from playoff contention, so the Decision Day game has little at stake for them. (moderate Β· sportingkc.com)
- Sporting Kansas City Β· Sporting KC are eliminated from the playoffs and are on a seven-game winless run. They need a win plus a CF Montreal loss to avoid last place in the Supporters' Shield standings. (moderate Β· sportingkc.com)
- San Diego FC Β· Elias Achouri is likely to miss the match with a lower-body injury. WhoScored also lists Osvald SΓΈe as out. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Sporting Kansas City Β· Lasse Berg Johnsen, Seymour Reid, Moises Mosquera and Zorhan Bassong are questionable with hamstring strains. Justin Reynolds (quad), Diego Borges (adductor) and Kwaku Agyabeng (ankle, doubtful) are also doubts. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Sporting Kansas City Β· WhoScored lists Or Blorian as out and Jacob Bartlett as doubtful after a knock against FC Dallas. (minor Β· whoscored.com)
- Sporting Kansas City Β· Sporting KC have conceded a record 81 goals this MLS season and have the worst goal difference (-42) in club history. (moderate Β· sportingkc.com)
- San Diego FC Β· San Diego have not lost to Sporting KC in three meetings and have conceded no goals in them. They have also conceded multiple goals in 10 home league games this season. (minor Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
San Diego FC
An MLS expansion club owned by the Mansour family and the Sycuan Band of the Kumeyaay Nation, it began play in 2025 and finished that debut season first in the Western Conference.
- City
- San Diego, California, United States
- Stadium
- Snapdragon Stadium
- Founded
- 2023
- Head coach
- Mikey Varas
Sporting Kansas City
A founding MLS club from the Kansas City area, long known for a pressing, organised identity, which finished 2026 near the bottom of the table and out of the playoffs under first-year coach RaphaΓ«l Wicky.
- City
- Kansas City, United States
- Stadium
- Sporting Park
- Founded
- 1995
- Head coach
- RaphaΓ«l Wicky
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
San Diego FC
- W@ St. Louis City SC1-0 Β· 10-31
- L@ Vancouver Whitecaps FC1-4 Β· 10-29
- DSeattle Sounders2-2 Β· 10-25
- D@ LA Galaxy2-2 Β· 10-18
- DHouston Dynamo3-3 Β· 10-15
Sporting Kansas City
- DFC Dallas1-1 Β· 10-31
- L@ Minnesota United FC1-3 Β· 10-29
- LAustin FC1-2 Β· 10-25
- LReal Salt Lake1-3 Β· 10-18
- L@ Nashville SC0-4 Β· 10-15
San Diego FC 7 days rest Β· Sporting Kansas City 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-03-08Sporting Kansas City 0-1 San Diego FCMLS
- 2025-08-10Sporting Kansas City 0-2 San Diego FCMLS
- 2025-05-18San Diego FC 0-0 Sporting Kansas CityMLS
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: MLS β