MLS Β· Matchday 34
Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Minnesota United FC a 56% chance of winning, 22% for a draw and 22% for San Jose Earthquakes; the single most likely score is 1:1 (10%) with 3.49 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Minnesota United FC
- 56%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1
- San Jose Earthquakes
- 44%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 19%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 41%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 35%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 68%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Minnesota United host San Jose Earthquakes in Regular Season round 34 needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. They are unbeaten in six after a 3-1 win at LAFC, and they have won all four recent meetings, including 5-1 at San Jose in August. San Jose have four players sidelined and little at stake beyond seeding. They have won only one of their last five. Rest is 6 days for the hosts and 7 for the visitors.
The published probabilities make Minnesota the favourites at 54%, with the draw at 22% and a San Jose win at 23%. Expected goals are 2.11β1.34. The most likely scores are 1:1 (10%), 2:1 (9%) and 2:0 (7%). Over 2.5 goals is at 67% and both teams scoring at 65%.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 11:12 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Minnesota United FC (56%); expected goals Minnesota United FC 2.16 β 1.33 San Jose Earthquakes.
- Goals look likely: 3.49 expected in total, 68% for over 2.5 and 66% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (10%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (35%).
- Last five: Minnesota United FC WWDWD (3 wins), San Jose Earthquakes WDLDD (1 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Minnesota United FC 5 wins, 1 draws, San Jose Earthquakes 0 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 23 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Minnesota United FC
- 2.16
- Expected goals Β· San Jose Earthquakes
- 1.33
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (10%)
- Half-time result
- 42% / 36% / 22%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Minnesota United FC | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 7.6% | 10.0% | 82.4% |
| Home -2 | 17.6% | 16.9% | 65.5% |
| Home -1β | 34.5% | 21.0% | 44.5% |
| Home +1 | 77.6% | 12.7% | 9.7% |
| Home +2 | 90.3% | 6.4% | 3.3% |
| Home +3 | 96.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:05.8%
- 2:07.1%
- 2:19.5%
- 3:05.1%
- 3:16.8%
- 3:24.5%
- 4:02.8%
- 4:13.7%
- 4:22.4%
- 5:01.2%
- 5:11.6%
- 5:21.1%
- Other home win4.0%
- 0:03.8%
- 1:19.6%
- 2:26.3%
- 3:32.0%
- Other draw0.4%
- 0:13.3%
- 0:22.7%
- 1:25.8%
- 0:31.2%
- 1:32.6%
- 2:32.8%
- 0:40.4%
- 1:40.9%
- 2:40.9%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win1.2%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 87.1% | 67.7% | 46.1% | 27.3% |
| Under | 12.9% | 32.3% | 53.9% | 72.7% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 39.3%
- Over, even
- 28.4%
- Under, odd
- 9.1%
- Under, even
- 23.2%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 65.9%
- Both teams to score: No
- 34.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Minnesota United FC
- 26.4%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· San Jose Earthquakes
- 11.5%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC | 11.5% | 24.9% | 26.9% | 36.6% |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 26.4% | 35.2% | 23.4% | 15.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 34.9% | H/D 5.3% | H/A 1.9% |
| Draw | D/H 16.8% | D/D 11.5% | D/A 7.9% |
| Away | A/H 3.8% | A/D 5.3% | A/A 12.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Minnesota United FC 55.5% Β· Draw 22.1% Β· San Jose Earthquakes 22.4% Β· 2.5+ 67.8%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 4.48 | 4.53 | 3.5: 2.02 / 1.85 | -0.75: 1.85 / 2.05 |
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 4.47 | 4.42 | 3.5: 1.98 / 1.90 | -1.5: 2.59 / 1.55 |
| BetAnything | 1.69 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 3.5: 2.00 / 1.83 | -0.5: 1.71 / 2.20 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.71 | 4.43 | 4.40 | 3.5: 2.06 / 1.71 | -0.5: 1.71 / 2.08 |
| Coolbet | 1.70 | 4.40 | 4.20 | 3.5: 2.03 / 1.76 | -1: 2.15 / 1.68 |
| GTbets | 1.70 | 4.17 | 4.25 | 3.5: 1.98 / 1.81 | -0.5: 1.68 / 2.16 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.65 | 4.30 | 4.25 | 3.5: 1.95 / 1.79 | -1: 2.03 / 1.72 |
| Matchbook | 1.72 | 4.60 | 4.60 | 3.5: 2.08 / 1.87 | -0.75: 1.85 / 2.04 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.70 | 4.30 | 4.20 | 3.5: 2.00 / 1.76 | -0.5: 1.68 / 2.11 |
| Betsson | 1.68 | 4.15 | 4.40 | 2.5: 1.39 / 2.95 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.75 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 3.5: 1.95 / 1.81 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 1.68 | 4.15 | 4.40 | 2.5: 1.39 / 2.95 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 1.62 | 3.85 | 3.85 | 3.5: 1.83 / 1.70 | β |
| Tipico | 1.67 | 4.40 | 3.70 | 3.5: 1.85 / 1.80 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 23 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Minnesota host San Jose needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and they arrive unbeaten in six after an impressive 3-1 at LAFC. San Jose have four players sidelined and little at stake beyond seeding, but all of this is already known to the market, so we stay with the consensus: roughly 54% home, 22% draw, 23% away, with a two-in-three chance of over 2.5 goals given both defences' generosity.
- Minnesota United FC Β· Wil Trapp is out in concussion protocol and has missed the last three matches. Owen Gene and Nectar Triantis have been the midfield pairing in his absence. (moderate Β· echopress.com)
- Minnesota United FC Β· Minnesota (41 points, 12th in the West) are two points off the last playoff spot. They need a win and help from other results, so this is effectively a must-win finale. (major Β· mnufc.com)
- Minnesota United FC Β· Minnesota are unbeaten in six after a 3-1 win at LAFC. They switched to a back four with Duggan and Diaz in the centre, Valerius at right back and Markanich at left back. Yeboah has 18 goals this season. (moderate Β· echopress.com)
- Minnesota United FC Β· Goalkeeper Kayne Rizvanovich, who was left out of the squad at LAFC, is expected to be out again. Drake Callender is the expected starter. (minor Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- San Jose Earthquakes Β· Darius Johnson and Jonathan Gonzalez are ruled out through injury, as are Nonso Adimabua (muscle) and DeJuan Jones (Achilles). That leaves San Jose short in the middle of the team. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- San Jose Earthquakes Β· San Jose (52 points) beat Real Salt Lake 2-1 last weekend to end a run of five games without a win. They are playing for conference seeding rather than survival. (minor Β· echopress.com)
- San Jose Earthquakes Β· San Jose have conceded freely this season, and their last five league games include a 0-3 loss at Dallas. The Open Cup meeting in April finished 4-2 to San Jose. (minor Β· goal.com)
- Minnesota United FC Β· Weather forecast for kick-off at Allianz Field: about 47Β°F, overcast, 8 mph east wind. No weather concern. (minor Β· echopress.com)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Minnesota United FC
Nicknamed the Loons, this Saint Paul-based MLS side set a club-record 58 points in 2025 and reached the Western Conference semifinals. In 2026 they are led by Cameron Knowles, who replaced Eric Ramsay, and they signed James RodrΓguez.
- City
- Saint Paul, Minnesota, United States
- Stadium
- Allianz Field
- Founded
- 2007
- Head coach
- Cameron Knowles
San Jose Earthquakes
A founding Major League Soccer club from the Bay Area, led by Bruce Arena (who is also sporting director) and built around German forward Timo Werner, after finishing 10th in the Western Conference in 2025 and missing the playoffs.
- City
- San Jose, California, United States
- Stadium
- PayPal Park
- Founded
- 1994
- Head coach
- Bruce Arena
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Minnesota United FC
- W@ Los Angeles FC3-1 Β· 11-02
- WSporting Kansas City3-1 Β· 10-29
- D@ Houston Dynamo0-0 Β· 10-25
- WSt. Louis City SC3-2 Β· 10-17
- D@ Colorado Rapids2-2 Β· 10-15
San Jose Earthquakes
- WReal Salt Lake2-1 Β· 10-31
- DColorado Rapids2-2 Β· 10-29
- L@ FC Dallas0-3 Β· 10-25
- DNashville SC1-1 Β· 10-18
- D@ Real Salt Lake1-1 Β· 10-15
Minnesota United FC 6 days rest Β· San Jose Earthquakes 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-08-23San Jose Earthquakes 1-5 Minnesota United FCMLS
- 2025-07-13Minnesota United FC 4-1 San Jose EarthquakesMLS
- 2025-03-09San Jose Earthquakes 0-1 Minnesota United FCMLS
- 2024-09-01San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Minnesota United FCMLS
- 2024-07-21Minnesota United FC 2-0 San Jose EarthquakesMLS
- 2023-10-01Minnesota United FC 1-1 San Jose EarthquakesMLS
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: MLS β