MLS Β· Matchday 33
San Jose Earthquakes vs Real Salt Lake prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): San Jose Earthquakes win 38%, draw 25%, Real Salt Lake win 38%; the final score was 2:1.
Full time: San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 Real Salt Lake. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Real Salt Lake" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | San Jose Earthquakes | 37.6% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 2:1 | 7.9% | #3 of 31 |
| Total goals | 3 goals | 21.1% | most likely |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.3% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 22.7% | #2 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- San Jose Earthquakes / Real Salt Lake
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1Hit
- San Jose Earthquakes
- 62%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 18%
- Total goalsHit
- 3 / 4 goals
- 40%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- A/A
- 23%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 70%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- Evenly matched: San Jose Earthquakes 38%, draw 25%, Real Salt Lake 38% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- Goals look likely: 3.63 expected in total, 70% for over 2.5 and 71% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (10%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (23%).
- Last five: San Jose Earthquakes DLDDD (0 wins), Real Salt Lake WWWDL (3 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· San Jose Earthquakes
- 1.81
- Expected goals Β· Real Salt Lake
- 1.82
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (10%)
- Half-time result
- 32% / 36% / 32%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.2% | 5.7% | 91.1% |
| Home -2 | 8.9% | 11.6% | 79.5% |
| Home -1 | 20.5% | 17.1% | 62.4% |
| Home +1β | 62.2% | 17.2% | 20.6% |
| Home +2 | 79.4% | 11.7% | 9.0% |
| Home +3 | 91.0% | 5.7% | 3.3% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:03.4%
- 2:04.4%
- 2:17.9%
- 3:02.6%
- 3:14.8%
- 3:24.3%
- 4:01.2%
- 4:12.2%
- 4:22.0%
- 5:00.4%
- 5:10.8%
- 5:20.7%
- Other home win2.9%
- 0:04.0%
- 1:110.1%
- 2:27.2%
- 3:32.6%
- Other draw0.6%
- 0:13.4%
- 0:24.4%
- 1:27.9%
- 0:32.7%
- 1:34.8%
- 2:34.4%
- 0:41.2%
- 1:42.2%
- 2:42.0%
- 0:50.4%
- 1:50.8%
- 2:50.7%
- Other away win2.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 89.1% | 70.3% | 49.1% | 29.9% |
| Under | 10.9% | 29.7% | 50.9% | 70.1% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 40.3%
- Over, even
- 29.9%
- Under, odd
- 6.9%
- Under, even
- 22.9%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 71.5%
- Both teams to score: No
- 28.5%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· San Jose Earthquakes
- 16.3%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Real Salt Lake
- 16.3%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 16.3% | 29.6% | 26.8% | 27.3% |
| Real Salt Lake | 16.3% | 29.5% | 26.8% | 27.4% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 22.7% | H/D 6.2% | H/A 3.1% |
| Draw | D/H 11.9% | D/D 12.2% | D/A 11.9% |
| Away | A/H 3.1% | A/D 6.2% | A/A 22.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
San Jose Earthquakes
A founding Major League Soccer club from the Bay Area, led by Bruce Arena (who is also sporting director) and built around German forward Timo Werner, after finishing 10th in the Western Conference in 2025 and missing the playoffs.
- City
- San Jose, California, United States
- Stadium
- PayPal Park
- Founded
- 1994
- Head coach
- Bruce Arena
Real Salt Lake
An MLS club from the Salt Lake City area and the 2009 MLS Cup champions, Real Salt Lake switched to a 3-5-2 back-three system in 2026 under Pablo Mastroeni and rely on young and homegrown talent such as Diego Luna.
- City
- Sandy (Salt Lake City area), Utah, United States
- Stadium
- America First Field
- Founded
- 2004
- Head coach
- Pablo Mastroeni
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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