MLS · Matchday 34

New York Red Bulls vs Atlanta United FC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

New York Red Bulls

LLWLL

Atlanta United FC

WLLLW

Kick-off (UTC): Sat, Nov 7, 09:00 PM UTC · Model data as of 2026-11-07

Our forecast gives New York Red Bulls a 51% chance of winning, 22% for a draw and 27% for Atlanta United FC; the single most likely score is 1:1 (9%) with 3.84 total goals expected.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium

1X2 (match result): New York Red Bulls; 51%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1: Atlanta United FC; 49%
Correct score: 1:1 / 2:1; 17%
Total goals: 3 / 4 goals; 40%
Half-time / full-time: H/H; 32%
Over / under 2.5: Over; 74%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)

New York Red Bulls host Atlanta United in MLS Regular Season round 34 on 7 November. The hosts have lost four of their last five, including 2-3 defeats at Nashville and New England, with a 2-0 win over Inter Miami the exception. Atlanta have won two of their last five (3-1 v Toronto, 3-0 at Montreal) and lost the other three. Both sides have had six days' rest. Atlanta won the last meeting 2-1 in August. Pre-match reports say both clubs are already eliminated, so lineups and motivation are uncertain.

The Red Bulls are the favourites at 50%, with a draw at 23% and an Atlanta win at 27%. Expected goals are 2.07–1.51, and both over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring stand at 69%. The most likely scores are 1:1 and 2:1 (9% each), then 2:2 (7%), which points to an open game with goals at both ends.

Written Fri, Nov 6, 11:09 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.

Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.

Probability data read (template)

The published probabilities favour New York Red Bulls (51%); expected goals New York Red Bulls 2.23 – 1.61 Atlanta United FC.
Goals look likely: 3.84 expected in total, 74% for over 2.5 and 72% for both teams to score.
The single most likely score is 1:1 (9%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (32%).
Last five: New York Red Bulls LLWLL (1 wins), Atlanta United FC WLLLW (2 wins).
Last 6 meetings in the dataset: New York Red Bulls 2 wins, 2 draws, Atlanta United FC 2 wins.

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

New York Red Bulls 51%Draw 22%Atlanta United FC 27%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 23 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · New York Red Bulls: 2.23
Expected goals · Atlanta United FC: 1.61
Most likely score: 1:1 (9%)
Half-time result: 40% / 35% / 25%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2	New York Red Bulls	Draw	Atlanta United FC
Home -3	6.9%	9.1%	84.0%
Home -2	16.0%	15.4%	68.6%
Home -1≈	31.4%	19.4%	49.2%
Home +1	73.0%	13.8%	13.2%
Home +2	86.8%	8.1%	5.1%
Home +3	94.9%	3.5%	1.7%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

New York Red Bulls · Home

1:03.8%
2:05.3%
2:18.6%
3:04.0%
3:16.4%
3:25.2%
4:02.2%
4:13.6%
4:22.9%
5:01.0%
5:11.6%
5:21.3%
Other home win5.1%

Draw

0:03.1%
1:18.7%
2:26.9%
3:32.8%
Other draw0.7%

Atlanta United FC · Away

0:12.5%
0:22.8%
1:26.2%
0:31.5%
1:33.4%
2:33.7%
0:40.6%
1:41.4%
2:41.5%
0:50.2%
1:50.4%
2:50.5%
Other away win2.3%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

3.1%

6.3%

16.8%

20.3%

19.5%

15.0%

9.6%

9.5%

Over / under	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5
Over	90.6%	73.8%	53.5%	34.1%
Under	9.4%	26.2%	46.5%	65.9%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd: 41.7%
Over, even: 32.1%
Under, odd: 6.3%
Under, even: 19.9%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes: 72.5%
Both teams to score: No: 27.5%
Clean-sheet probability · New York Red Bulls: 19.9%
Clean-sheet probability · Atlanta United FC: 10.8%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team	0	1	2	3+
New York Red Bulls	10.8%	24.0%	26.7%	38.5%
Atlanta United FC	19.9%	32.1%	25.9%	22.0%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →	Home	Draw	Away
Home	H/H 31.8%	H/D 5.8%	H/A 2.5%
Draw	D/H 14.9%	D/D 10.7%	D/A 8.9%
Away	A/H 4.0%	A/D 5.8%	A/A 15.5%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Bookmaker odds (EU region)

Market consensus (margin removed): New York Red Bulls 50.8% · Draw 22.3% · Atlanta United FC 27.0% · 2.5+ 73.8%

Bookmaker	Home	Draw	Away	Over/Under	Asian handicap (home)
Pinnacle	1.85	4.40	3.66	3.75: 1.90 / 1.97	-0.5: 1.86 / 2.03
1xBet	1.90	4.38	3.62	3.5: 1.75 / 2.17	-1.5: 2.84 / 1.47
BetAnything	1.83	4.30	3.60	3.75: 1.84 / 1.99	-0.5: 1.86 / 1.96
BetOnline.ag	1.86	4.40	3.69	3.5: 1.80 / 1.98	-0.5: 1.86 / 1.95
Coolbet	1.92	4.30	3.30	3.5: 1.76 / 2.03	-1: 2.54 / 1.50
GTbets	1.87	4.21	3.50	3.5: 1.72 / 2.05	-0.5: 1.87 / 1.91
Marathon Bet	1.82	4.20	3.48	3.5: 1.73 / 2.04	0: 1.43 / 2.66
Matchbook	1.90	4.50	3.70	3.5: 1.78 / 2.16	-0.5: 1.88 / 2.04
MyBookie.ag	1.88	4.20	3.46	3.5: 1.70 / 2.08	-0.5: 1.84 / 1.90
Betsson	1.85	4.15	3.55	2.5: 1.27 / 3.70	–
LeoVegas (SE)	1.89	4.40	3.60	3.5: 1.79 / 1.97	–
Nordic Bet	1.85	4.15	3.55	2.5: 1.27 / 3.70	–
PMU (FR)	1.75	3.85	3.20	3.5: 1.67 / 1.85	–
Tipico	1.72	4.30	3.50	3.5: 1.65 / 2.05	–

Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC

Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 23 in the consensus.

Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.

Claude pre-match intel

Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.

(Claude's experimental view; does not change this page) With both clubs already eliminated, this is a low-stakes Decision Day fixture where lineups and motivation are uncertain. The Red Bulls' home record against Atlanta keeps them favourites, but their recent defensive collapses and possible rotation justify shading the home price slightly toward our model. Goals look likely given how porous both defences have been.

New York Red Bulls · Red Bulls are eliminated from playoff contention after blowing a 2-0 lead at Nashville, and have lost four of their last five. This is a Decision Day dead rubber. (moderate · si.com)
Atlanta United FC · Atlanta are also out of playoff contention, with nothing to play for but pride. They ended a losing run with a 3-1 win over Toronto, in which Almirón and Miranchuk each scored and assisted. (moderate · sports.yahoo.com)
New York Red Bulls · Justin Che is unlikely to play because of a knee injury, with nothing left to play for. Ronald Donkor and Dylan Nealis are eligible to return from suspension. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
New York Red Bulls · Tobias Szewczyk is reported unavailable, so the Red Bulls must adjust their otherwise usual line-up. (minor · forebet.com)
Atlanta United FC · Will Reilly is out with an ankle injury and Enea Mihaj is doubtful with a hip issue. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
New York Red Bulls · Red Bulls have won their last several home meetings with Atlanta, including 2-0 last year. Atlanta won the most recent meeting overall. (minor · sportsgambler.com)
New York Red Bulls · Squawka says no fresh fitness concerns have been flagged for either side. It also describes the Red Bulls as still in the playoff picture, which conflicts with other outlets that say they are eliminated. (minor · squawka.com)

Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.

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