MLS Β· Matchday 33

Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Atlanta United FC
LLLWL
3 - 1
HT 2-0
Toronto FC
WLWDW

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Atlanta United FC win 47%, draw 23%, Toronto FC win 30%; the final score was 3:1.

Full time: Atlanta United FC 3-1 Toronto FC. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Atlanta United FC" β€” correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultAtlanta United FC46.9%most likely
Correct score3:16.0%#5 of 31
Total goals4 goals19.4%#2 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.573.0%most likely
Half-time/full-timeH/H29.3%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Atlanta United FC / Toronto FC
77%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
Toronto FC
53%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
18%
Total goalsHit
3 / 4 goals
40%
Half-time / full-timeHit
H/H
29%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
73%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Atlanta United FC (47%); expected goals Atlanta United FC 2.12 – 1.68 Toronto FC.
  • Goals look likely: 3.80 expected in total, 73% for over 2.5 and 73% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (9%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (29%).
  • Last five: Atlanta United FC LLLWL (1 wins), Toronto FC WLWDW (3 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Atlanta United FC 47%Draw 23%Toronto FC 30%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· Atlanta United FC
2.12
Expected goals Β· Toronto FC
1.68
Most likely score
1:1 (9%)
Half-time result
38% / 35% / 27%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2Atlanta United FCDrawToronto FC
Home -35.7%8.1%86.2%
Home -213.8%14.4%71.9%
Home -1β‰ˆ28.1%18.7%53.1%
Home +170.2%14.6%15.2%
Home +284.8%9.1%6.1%
Home +393.9%4.0%2.1%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Atlanta United FC Β· Home
  • 1:03.5%
  • 2:05.0%
  • 2:18.4%
  • 3:03.5%
  • 3:16.0%
  • 3:25.0%
  • 4:01.9%
  • 4:13.1%
  • 4:22.6%
  • 5:00.8%
  • 5:11.3%
  • 5:21.1%
  • Other home win4.5%
Draw
  • 0:03.5%
  • 1:19.2%
  • 2:27.1%
  • 3:32.8%
  • Other draw0.7%
Toronto FC Β· Away
  • 0:12.5%
  • 0:23.2%
  • 1:26.7%
  • 0:31.8%
  • 1:33.8%
  • 2:34.0%
  • 0:40.7%
  • 1:41.6%
  • 2:41.7%
  • 0:50.3%
  • 1:50.5%
  • 2:50.6%
  • Other away win2.5%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
3.5%
1
6.0%
2
17.4%
3
20.5%
4
19.4%
5
14.8%
6
9.3%
7+
9.0%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over90.5%73.0%52.6%33.1%
Under9.5%27.0%47.4%66.9%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
41.4%
Over, even
31.6%
Under, odd
6.0%
Under, even
20.9%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
72.8%
Both teams to score: No
27.2%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Atlanta United FC
18.6%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Toronto FC
12.1%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Atlanta United FC12.1%25.5%27.0%35.5%
Toronto FC18.6%31.3%26.3%23.8%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
29.3%
H/D
6.0%
H/A
2.7%
Draw
D/H
13.8%
D/D
11.3%
D/A
9.6%
Away
A/H
3.8%
A/D
6.0%
A/A
17.5%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Atlanta United FC

Nicknamed the Five Stripes, Atlanta United won the 2018 MLS Cup and has led MLS in attendance, but it has struggled in recent seasons and brought back Gerardo Martino as coach for 2026.

City
Atlanta, Georgia, United States
Stadium
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Founded
2014
Head coach
Gerardo Martino

Toronto FC

Toronto FC is a Canadian MLS club that plays in the Eastern Conference at BMO Field and is coached by Robin Fraser.

City
Toronto, Canada
Stadium
BMO Field
Founded
2005
Head coach
Robin Fraser

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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