MLS Β· Matchday 33
St. Louis City SC vs San Diego FC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): St. Louis City SC win 59%, draw 20%, San Diego FC win 21%; the final score was 0:1.
Full time: St. Louis City SC 0-1 San Diego FC. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "St. Louis City SC" β missed.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | San Diego FC | 20.7% | #2 of 3 |
| Correct score | 0:1 | 1.6% | #22 of 31 |
| Total goals | 1 goals | 5.0% | #7 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 23.1% | #2 of 2 |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 11.8% | #3 of 9 |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Miss
- St. Louis City SC
- 59%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
- San Diego FC
- 41%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 2:1 / 1:1
- 16%
- Total goalsMiss
- 3 / 4 goals
- 39%
- Half-time / full-timeMiss
- H/H
- 39%
- Over / under 2.5Miss
- Over
- 77%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour St. Louis City SC (59%); expected goals St. Louis City SC 2.54 β 1.51 San Diego FC.
- Goals look likely: 4.05 expected in total, 77% for over 2.5 and 73% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:1 (8%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (39%).
- Last five: St. Louis City SC LLLDW (1 wins), San Diego FC LDDDL (0 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· St. Louis City SC
- 2.54
- Expected goals Β· San Diego FC
- 1.51
- Most likely score
- 2:1 (8%)
- Half-time result
- 46% / 32% / 22%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | St. Louis City SC | Draw | San Diego FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 10.7% | 11.5% | 77.8% |
| Home -2 | 22.2% | 17.3% | 60.5% |
| Home -1β | 39.5% | 19.4% | 41.1% |
| Home +1 | 79.3% | 11.1% | 9.6% |
| Home +2 | 90.4% | 6.1% | 3.5% |
| Home +3 | 96.5% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:03.4%
- 2:05.6%
- 2:18.5%
- 3:04.8%
- 3:17.2%
- 3:25.4%
- 4:03.0%
- 4:14.6%
- 4:23.4%
- 5:01.5%
- 5:12.3%
- 5:21.7%
- Other home win7.4%
- 0:02.8%
- 1:17.7%
- 2:26.4%
- 3:32.7%
- Other draw0.8%
- 0:11.6%
- 0:22.0%
- 1:25.0%
- 0:31.0%
- 1:32.5%
- 2:33.2%
- 0:40.4%
- 1:41.0%
- 2:41.2%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.3%
- 2:50.4%
- Other away win2.0%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 92.2% | 76.9% | 57.5% | 38.0% |
| Under | 7.8% | 23.1% | 42.5% | 62.0% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 42.9%
- Over, even
- 33.9%
- Under, odd
- 5.0%
- Under, even
- 18.2%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 72.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 27.2%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· St. Louis City SC
- 22.1%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· San Diego FC
- 7.9%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City SC | 7.9% | 20.1% | 25.5% | 46.6% |
| San Diego FC | 22.1% | 33.4% | 25.2% | 19.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 38.6% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 2.1% |
| Draw | D/H 15.9% | D/D 9.6% | D/A 6.8% |
| Away | A/H 4.4% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 11.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC is an MLS expansion club that began play in 2023 and is known for its passionate home support at Energizer Park, and it is now led by Yoann Damet, who was appointed in December 2025.
- City
- St. Louis, United States
- Stadium
- Energizer Park
- Founded
- 2019
- Head coach
- Yoann Damet
San Diego FC
An MLS expansion club owned by the Mansour family and the Sycuan Band of the Kumeyaay Nation, it began play in 2025 and finished that debut season first in the Western Conference.
- City
- San Diego, California, United States
- Stadium
- Snapdragon Stadium
- Founded
- 2023
- Head coach
- Mikey Varas
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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