MLS · Matchday 34

Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Philadelphia Union

LDLDW

Toronto FC

LWLWD

Kick-off (UTC): Sat, Nov 7, 09:00 PM UTC · Model data as of 2026-11-07

Our forecast gives Philadelphia Union a 66% chance of winning, 19% for a draw and 15% for Toronto FC; the single most likely score is 2:1 (10%) with 3.48 total goals expected.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: High

1X2 (match result): Philadelphia Union; 66%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1: Philadelphia Union; 44%
Correct score: 2:1 / 2:0; 18%
Total goals: 2 / 3 goals; 41%
Half-time / full-time: H/H; 43%
Over / under 2.5: Over; 68%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)

Philadelphia Union host Toronto in MLS Regular Season round 34 with 7 days of rest against the visitors' 6. The Union are winless in four (L D L D) after a 3-1 win at Chicago Fire, and the absence of top scorer Milan Iloski is reported, but they have an incentive to secure 6th place. Toronto, reportedly eliminated and short of key defenders, may rotate after a 1-3 loss at Atlanta United. The last four meetings brought two draws and one win each.

The published probabilities give Philadelphia a 65% chance of winning, with the draw at 19% and Toronto at 16%. Expected goals are 2.42–1.14, and the most likely scores are 2:1 (9%), 2:0 (8%) and 1:1 (8%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 69% and both teams scoring at 62%.

Written Fri, Nov 6, 11:10 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.

Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.

Probability data read (template)

The published probabilities favour Philadelphia Union (66%); expected goals Philadelphia Union 2.39 – 1.09 Toronto FC.
Goals look likely: 3.48 expected in total, 68% for over 2.5 and 61% for both teams to score.
The single most likely score is 2:1 (10%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (43%).
Last five: Philadelphia Union LDLDW (1 wins), Toronto FC LWLWD (2 wins).
Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Philadelphia Union 1 wins, 3 draws, Toronto FC 2 wins.

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Philadelphia Union 66%Draw 19%Toronto FC 15%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 23 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Philadelphia Union: 2.39
Expected goals · Toronto FC: 1.09
Most likely score: 2:1 (10%)
Half-time result: 49% / 35% / 16%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2	Philadelphia Union	Draw	Toronto FC
Home -3	11.7%	13.0%	75.3%
Home -2	24.7%	19.4%	55.9%
Home -1≈	44.1%	21.7%	34.1%
Home +1	84.8%	9.6%	5.6%
Home +2	94.4%	4.0%	1.6%
Home +3	98.4%	1.2%	0.4%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Philadelphia Union · Home

1:06.9%
2:08.8%
2:19.6%
3:07.0%
3:17.7%
3:24.2%
4:04.2%
4:14.6%
4:22.5%
5:02.0%
5:12.2%
5:21.2%
Other home win5.0%

Draw

0:03.5%
1:18.4%
2:25.2%
3:31.5%
Other draw0.3%

Toronto FC · Away

0:12.9%
0:21.8%
1:24.4%
0:30.7%
1:31.6%
2:31.9%
0:40.2%
1:40.4%
2:40.5%
0:50.0%
1:50.1%
2:50.1%
Other away win0.6%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

3.5%

9.9%

19.1%

21.6%

18.8%

13.1%

7.6%

6.4%

Over / under	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5
Over	86.6%	67.5%	45.9%	27.1%
Under	13.4%	32.5%	54.1%	72.9%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd: 39.2%
Over, even: 28.3%
Under, odd: 9.9%
Under, even: 22.6%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes: 60.6%
Both teams to score: No: 39.4%
Clean-sheet probability · Philadelphia Union: 33.7%
Clean-sheet probability · Toronto FC: 9.1%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team	0	1	2	3+
Philadelphia Union	9.1%	21.9%	26.2%	42.9%
Toronto FC	33.7%	36.7%	19.9%	9.7%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →	Home	Draw	Away
Home	H/H 43.1%	H/D 4.4%	H/A 1.3%
Draw	D/H 18.9%	D/D 10.2%	D/A 5.7%
Away	A/H 3.9%	A/D 4.4%	A/A 8.2%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Bookmaker odds (EU region)

Market consensus (margin removed): Philadelphia Union 65.9% · Draw 18.9% · Toronto FC 15.2% · 2.5+ 67.5%

Bookmaker	Home	Draw	Away	Over/Under	Asian handicap (home)
Pinnacle	1.43	5.35	6.54	3.25: 1.87 / 2.01	-1.25: 1.88 / 2.01
1xBet	1.48	5.06	6.31	3.5: 2.07 / 1.83	-1.5: 2.13 / 1.78
BetAnything	1.43	5.25	6.20	3.25: 1.85 / 1.98	-1.25: 1.85 / 1.98
BetOnline.ag	1.44	5.40	6.30	3.5: 2.04 / 1.75	-1.5: 2.13 / 1.71
Coolbet	1.43	5.00	6.25	3.5: 2.06 / 1.74	-1.5: 2.15 / 1.68
GTbets	1.43	5.07	6.03	3.5: 2.01 / 1.78	-1.5: 2.11 / 1.70
Marathon Bet	1.42	4.85	6.05	3.5: 2.06 / 1.71	-1.5: 2.10 / 1.67
Matchbook	1.45	5.30	6.80	3.5: 2.10 / 1.83	-1.25: 1.87 / 2.02
MyBookie.ag	1.41	5.20	6.30	3.5: 2.02 / 1.74	-1.5: 2.02 / 1.74
Betsson	1.42	4.80	6.80	2.5: 1.39 / 2.95	–
LeoVegas (SE)	1.47	4.90	6.75	3.5: 2.04 / 1.74	–
Nordic Bet	1.42	4.80	6.80	2.5: 1.39 / 2.95	–
PMU (FR)	1.36	4.30	5.75	3.5: 1.91 / 1.63	–
Tipico	1.35	5.20	6.00	3.5: 1.85 / 1.80	–

Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC

Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 23 in the consensus.

Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only — not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.

Claude pre-match intel

Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.

Philadelphia are heavy favourites at home against an eliminated Toronto side that is short of key defenders and may rotate, and the Union have a concrete incentive to win to lock in 6th place. The absence of top scorer Milan Iloski and a four-game winless run temper the enthusiasm, but both were known before the odds settled. We stay very close to the market with a marginal lean to the hosts and to goals.

Philadelphia Union · Milan Iloski, the club's top scorer with 19 goals and leader of the Golden Boot race before his injury, remains on the injury report and is out for the finale. (major · philadelphiaunion.com)
Philadelphia Union · Japhet Sery Larsen is still out with concussion symptoms. Interim coach Ryan Richter says all other players are fully fit. (moderate · philadelphiaunion.com)
Philadelphia Union · Union are 6th with 47 points. A win would lock in 6th place and 50 points, and the result affects playoff seeding and opponent. (moderate · philadelphiaunion.com)
Philadelphia Union · The Union are winless in four games after a 15-game unbeaten run ended on Oct 24. Ryan Richter is interim coach, and Alejandro Bedoya is expected to retire after the season. (minor · bvmsports.com)
Philadelphia Union · Sports Mole lists Geiner Martinez (knee) as questionable and Bedoya (eye) as doubtful. This conflicts with the club's report that only Iloski and Sery Larsen are out. (minor · sportsmole.co.uk)
Toronto FC · Toronto are eliminated from playoff contention and are playing for pride only. Robin Fraser could rotate and give fringe players minutes. (moderate · wakingthered.com)
Toronto FC · Kobe Franklin, Walker Zimmerman and Nelson Palacio are out injured, and Alonso Coello is suspended. (major · bvmsports.com)

Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.

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