MLS Β· Matchday 33
Portland Timbers vs Houston Dynamo prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-02
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Portland Timbers win 54%, draw 24%, Houston Dynamo win 22%; the final score was 3:1.
Full time: Portland Timbers 3-1 Houston Dynamo. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Portland Timbers" β correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | Portland Timbers | 53.8% | most likely |
| Correct score | 3:1 | 6.5% | #5 of 31 |
| Total goals | 4 goals | 18.0% | #3 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | H/H | 33.5% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality β see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- Portland Timbers
- 54%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Miss
- Houston Dynamo
- 46%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 21%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 44%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- H/H
- 34%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 63%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour Portland Timbers (54%); expected goals Portland Timbers 2.00 β 1.24 Houston Dynamo.
- Goals look likely: 3.24 expected in total, 63% for over 2.5 and 63% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (34%).
- Last five: Portland Timbers WWDLD (2 wins), Houston Dynamo WDDDD (1 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Portland Timbers
- 2.00
- Expected goals Β· Houston Dynamo
- 1.24
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 41% / 38% / 21%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Portland Timbers | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 6.4% | 9.4% | 84.2% |
| Home -2 | 15.8% | 16.6% | 67.6% |
| Home -1β | 32.4% | 21.4% | 46.2% |
| Home +1 | 77.6% | 12.9% | 9.5% |
| Home +2 | 90.5% | 6.5% | 3.1% |
| Home +3 | 96.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:06.7%
- 2:07.8%
- 2:19.7%
- 3:05.2%
- 3:16.5%
- 3:24.0%
- 4:02.6%
- 4:13.2%
- 4:22.0%
- 5:01.0%
- 5:11.3%
- 5:20.8%
- Other home win2.9%
- 0:05.0%
- 1:110.8%
- 2:26.0%
- 3:31.7%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:13.7%
- 0:23.0%
- 1:26.0%
- 0:31.3%
- 1:32.5%
- 2:32.5%
- 0:40.4%
- 1:40.8%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.9%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 84.6% | 62.9% | 40.7% | 22.7% |
| Under | 15.4% | 37.1% | 59.3% | 77.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 37.3%
- Over, even
- 25.7%
- Under, odd
- 10.4%
- Under, even
- 26.7%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 62.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 37.3%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Portland Timbers
- 28.8%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Houston Dynamo
- 13.5%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers | 13.5% | 27.1% | 27.1% | 32.3% |
| Houston Dynamo | 28.8% | 35.9% | 22.3% | 13.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 33.5% | H/D 5.4% | H/A 1.8% |
| Draw | D/H 16.8% | D/D 13.0% | D/A 8.1% |
| Away | A/H 3.4% | A/D 5.4% | A/A 12.5% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers are the MLS club of Oregon's largest city, known for their passionate Timbers Army supporters. They sit in the lower half of the Western Conference in 2026 under new coach MartΓ Cifuentes.
- City
- Portland, Oregon, United States
- Stadium
- Providence Park
- Founded
- 1975
- Head coach
- MartΓ Cifuentes
Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo are a Texas-based MLS club that won the MLS Cup in 2006 and 2007 and the U.S. Open Cup in 2018 and 2023, and they qualified for the 2026 MLS Cup Playoffs under Ben Olsen.
- City
- Houston, United States
- Stadium
- Shell Energy Stadium
- Founded
- 2005
- Head coach
- Ben Olsen
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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