Club football · AI probability model

Eredivisie predictions, table and team ratings 2026-27

100 Eredivisie matches played this season, 3.80 goals per game; PSV top the model's strength ranking. The 8 fixtures below each carry 1X2, correct-score, total-goals and HT/FT probabilities.

Data updated: 2026-11-07 16:20 UTC · Source: api-football

Upcoming match predictions

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
Fortuna SittardvsTelstar
Home 46%Draw 26%Away 27%
Most likely score
1:1 12%
Expected total goals
2.95
Over / under 2.5
Over 57%

AI picks: Fortuna Sittard/Telstar · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
ADO Den HaagvsSparta Rotterdam
Home 38%Draw 26%Away 36%
Most likely score
1:1 12%
Expected total goals
3.13
Over / under 2.5
Over 61%

AI picks: ADO Den Haag/Sparta Rotterdam · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
ExcelsiorvsGo Ahead Eagles
Home 34%Draw 26%Away 40%
Most likely score
1:1 12%
Expected total goals
3.05
Over / under 2.5
Over 59%

AI picks: Excelsior/Go Ahead Eagles · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
HeerenveenvsFeyenoord
Home 23%Draw 22%Away 55%
Most likely score
1:1 9%
Expected total goals
3.51
Over / under 2.5
Over 68%

AI picks: Feyenoord · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
FC TwentevsAjax
Home 42%Draw 25%Away 33%
Most likely score
1:1 11%
Expected total goals
3.33
Over / under 2.5
Over 65%

AI picks: FC Twente/Ajax · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
AZ AlkmaarvsGroningen
Home 63%Draw 20%Away 17%
Most likely score
2:1 10%
Expected total goals
3.44
Over / under 2.5
Over 67%

AI picks: AZ Alkmaar · 2:1 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: High
CambuurvsPSV
Home 15%Draw 17%Away 68%
Most likely score
1:2 9%
Expected total goals
3.88
Over / under 2.5
Over 74%

AI picks: PSV · 1:2 · Over 2.5

Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)
FC UtrechtvsNEC Nijmegen
Home 39%Draw 25%Away 36%
Most likely score
1:1 11%
Expected total goals
3.27
Over / under 2.5
Over 63%

AI picks: FC Utrecht/NEC Nijmegen · 1:1 · Over 2.5

Table · 2026-27

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsLast 5
1Feyenoord117403312+2125DDWWW
2Ajax117313013+1724WWWDD
3PSV117223513+2223WDLWL
4FC Twente117222810+1823WWLDW
5AZ Alkmaar116232013+720LLDLW
6Fortuna Sittard115421818019DWDDW
7Heerenveen115331913+618WWWLW
8Groningen114342624+215LDLWW
9Cambuur114342322+115WWDWD
10Go Ahead Eagles113532327-414LWLDD
11Sparta Rotterdam113352026-612WLWDL
12PEC Zwolle123361324-1112DWDWL
13FC Utrecht113351931-1212LDWWL
14NEC Nijmegen112541719-211LDDDD
15Excelsior113261628-1211LLLLD
16Telstar112361623-79WLLDL
17ADO Den Haag111371324-116LLWDD
18Willem II120391140-293DLLLL

Model strength ratings

#TeamGoal-difference strengthAttack indexDefence index (lower is better)Expected goals +/−
1PSV+1.291.490.742.56 / 1.27
2Feyenoord+1.121.370.712.34 / 1.23
3FC Twente+1.021.310.722.25 / 1.23
4Ajax+0.931.300.762.23 / 1.30
5AZ Alkmaar+0.571.100.771.90 / 1.33
6Heerenveen+0.171.020.921.75 / 1.59
7NEC Nijmegen+0.040.980.961.68 / 1.65
8Groningen+0.031.051.041.81 / 1.78
9FC Utrecht-0.170.941.031.61 / 1.78
10Go Ahead Eagles-0.250.981.131.68 / 1.93
11Sparta Rotterdam-0.410.891.131.53 / 1.94
12Fortuna Sittard-0.430.811.061.40 / 1.83
13Cambuur-0.480.891.171.52 / 2.00
14ADO Den Haag-0.500.811.101.39 / 1.89
15Telstar-0.510.861.161.47 / 1.99
16Excelsior-0.580.801.131.36 / 1.95
17PEC Zwolle-0.600.731.081.26 / 1.86
18Willem II-1.240.661.381.14 / 2.37

Recent results: pre-match probability vs outcome

3/6Miss
Willem II1 - 1PEC Zwolle
Home 35%Draw 25%Away 40%

AI picks: Willem II/PEC Zwolle · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Miss
Groningen2 - 3Sparta Rotterdam
Home 54%Draw 23%Away 23%

AI picks: Groningen · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Miss
Telstar4 - 2FC Utrecht
Home 29%Draw 25%Away 46%

AI picks: Telstar/FC Utrecht · 1:1 · Over 2.5

4/6Hit
Excelsior0 - 9FC Twente
Home 16%Draw 20%Away 63%

AI picks: FC Twente · 1:2 · Over 2.5

2/6Hit
PEC Zwolle1 - 0ADO Den Haag
Home 40%Draw 26%Away 34%

AI picks: PEC Zwolle/ADO Den Haag · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Hit
Cambuur4 - 0Go Ahead Eagles
Home 39%Draw 24%Away 37%

AI picks: Cambuur/Go Ahead Eagles · 1:1 · Over 2.5

2/6Hit
Ajax1 - 0AZ Alkmaar
Home 51%Draw 23%Away 25%

AI picks: Ajax · 1:1 · Over 2.5

3/6Hit
PSV7 - 0Willem II
Home 89%Draw 8%Away 4%

AI picks: PSV · 3:0 · Over 2.5

1/6Hit
Heerenveen1 - 0NEC Nijmegen
Home 43%Draw 24%Away 32%

AI picks: Heerenveen/NEC Nijmegen · 1:1 · Over 2.5

0/6Miss
Feyenoord1 - 1Fortuna Sittard
Home 81%Draw 12%Away 7%

AI picks: Feyenoord · 3:0 · Over 2.5

2026-27 · Matches 100 · 1X2 accuracy 52.0% · RPS 0.198

Season pick record by market

Play2026-27 · n=100
1X2 (match result)64.0%
1X2 (match result) · Confidence High65.1%
Handicap 1X250.0%
Correct score (top 2)14.0%
Total goals (top 2)29.0%
Half-time / full-time40.0%
Over / under 2.571.0%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

League season stats

Goals per game
3.80
Home wins
34.0%
Draws
28.0%
Away wins
38.0%
Over 2.5
71.0%
Both teams score
69.0%
Matches
100
HT / FT
44.5%

Total goals (0–7+)

0
1.0%
1
10.0%
2
18.0%
3
11.0%
4
27.0%
5
16.0%
6
8.0%
7+
9.0%

Half-time / full-time

H/H
21.0%
H/D
5.0%
H/A
2.0%
D/H
10.0%
D/D
16.0%
D/A
8.0%
A/H
3.0%
A/D
7.0%
A/A
28.0%