Eredivisie · Matchday 12
Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Fortuna Sittard a 46% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 27% for Telstar; the single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) with 2.95 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Fortuna Sittard / Telstar
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home -1
- Telstar
- 54%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 22%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 46%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 28%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 57%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Fortuna Sittard come into this Eredivisie Round 12 match unbeaten in their last five (two wins, three draws), including a 1-1 draw at Feyenoord. Danny Buijs has a stretched squad, with Guth, Zeefuik, Michut and Oukili all out. Telstar have won one, drawn one and lost three of their last five, but they beat FC Utrecht 4-2 and have been involved in open, high-scoring games. The hosts have had seven days of rest to Telstar's six. Telstar won 4-1 in the most recent meeting in March, after Fortuna won 3-1 in September 2025.
The published probabilities make Fortuna Sittard the favourites at 46%, with a draw at 26% and a Telstar win at 28%. Expected goals are 1.74 to 1.32. The most likely scores are 1:1 (12%), 2:1 (9%) and 1:2 (7%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 59% and both teams scoring at 62%, pointing to a fairly open game. These figures blend our model with the consensus of 22 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:39 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Fortuna Sittard (46%); expected goals Fortuna Sittard 1.69 – 1.26 Telstar.
- 2.95 goals expected; over/under 2.5 is close to a coin flip (over 57%).
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (28%).
- Last five: Fortuna Sittard DWDDW (2 wins), Telstar WLLDL (1 wins).
- Last 2 meetings in the dataset: Fortuna Sittard 1 wins, 0 draws, Telstar 1 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
The match has kicked off; probabilities keep the last pre-match blend.
- Expected goals · Fortuna Sittard
- 1.69
- Expected goals · Telstar
- 1.26
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 36% / 40% / 24%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Fortuna Sittard | Draw | Telstar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 3.8% | 7.0% | 89.2% |
| Home -2 | 10.8% | 14.4% | 74.9% |
| Home -1≈ | 25.1% | 21.0% | 53.9% |
| Home +1 | 72.5% | 15.4% | 12.1% |
| Home +2 | 87.9% | 8.1% | 4.0% |
| Home +3 | 96.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:07.6%
- 2:07.4%
- 2:19.4%
- 3:04.2%
- 3:15.3%
- 3:23.3%
- 4:01.8%
- 4:12.2%
- 4:21.4%
- 5:00.6%
- 5:10.8%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win1.6%
- 0:06.5%
- 1:112.4%
- 2:25.9%
- 3:31.4%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:15.4%
- 0:24.2%
- 1:27.0%
- 0:31.8%
- 1:33.0%
- 2:32.5%
- 0:40.6%
- 1:40.9%
- 2:40.8%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.2%
- 2:50.2%
- Other away win0.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 80.6% | 56.6% | 34.2% | 17.7% |
| Under | 19.4% | 43.4% | 65.8% | 82.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 34.4%
- Over, even
- 22.1%
- Under, odd
- 13.0%
- Under, even
- 30.5%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 59.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 40.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Fortuna Sittard
- 28.3%
- Clean-sheet probability · Telstar
- 18.5%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 18.5% | 31.2% | 26.3% | 24.0% |
| Telstar | 28.3% | 35.7% | 22.6% | 13.5% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 28.4% | H/D 5.7% | H/A 1.9% |
| Draw | D/H 15.0% | D/D 15.0% | D/A 9.7% |
| Away | A/H 2.8% | A/D 5.7% | A/A 15.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Team news & line-ups
Fortuna Sittard
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 5-4-1 · Coach: D. Buijs
- 31 M. Branderhorst
- 12 Ivo Pinto
- 4 Iván Márquez
- 6 S. van Ottele
- 28 Justin Quincy Hubner
- 8 J. Dahlhaus
- 52 M. Ihattaren
- 23 P. Brittijn
- 22 Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand
- 7 K. Peterson
- 9 A. Descotte
Telstar
Injuries & suspensions
No absences reported by our data provider.
Starting XI
Formation: 4-3-3 · Coach: H. Brugge
- 1 R. Koeman
- 18 G. Caschili
- 16 S. Valk
- 4 A. Soualhia
- 43 M. Peersman
- 6 Isaiah Ahmed
- 10 T. Owusu
- 17 N. Rossen
- 42 A. Martha
- 11 N. Þórisson
- 27 P. Brouwer
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test — it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Fortuna Sittard are favourites at home against relegation-threatened Telstar, but injuries to Guth, Zeefuik, Michut and Oukili leave Danny Buijs with a stretched squad. Since those absences have been known for several days, we only shade slightly away from the market toward Telstar, who showed in their 4-2 win over Utrecht that they can hurt anyone. Telstar's leaky defence and open games keep the odds of three or more goals around 60%.
- Fortuna Sittard · Rodrigo Guth (bruised lung) and Lequincio Zeefuik (hamstring) went off injured at Feyenoord; Sports Mole lists both as doubtful, while an injury tracker lists them out until early December. (major · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Fortuna Sittard · Édouard Michut (hamstring) and Yassin Oukili are listed as out by an Eredivisie injury tracker, with return expected around early December. (moderate · blessuresenschorsingen.nl)
- Fortuna Sittard · Daley Sinkgraven (long-term) and Ramazan Bayram (knee) remain out. (minor · blessuresenschorsingen.nl)
- Fortuna Sittard · Iván Márquez and Kristoffer Peterson, both substitutes at Feyenoord, could come into the starting XI if Guth or Zeefuik fail to recover. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Telstar · Defender Gerald Alders has missed the last three games and remains a doubt (about 25% chance of playing). (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Telstar · Patrick Brouwer, who missed the Utrecht game, is likely to return. Rui Mendes was also absent against Utrecht and has no confirmed return. (moderate · sportsmole.co.uk)
- Fortuna Sittard · Fortuna are 6th with 19 points from 11 games. A win would make Danny Buijs the club's record Eredivisie winner with 36 wins, one clear of Bert van Marwijk. (minor · l1nieuws.nl)
- Telstar · Telstar are 16th with 9 points from 11 games and are fighting relegation. They beat Utrecht 4-2 last weekend but have conceded heavily, with 5 goals in their previous two away and home losses. (minor · fortunasittard.nl)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes — check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Fortuna Sittard
A Limburg club formed by a 1968 merger, Fortuna Sittard have played in the Eredivisie since 2018 and usually finish in mid-table.
- City
- Sittard, Netherlands
- Stadium
- Fortuna Sittard Stadion
- Founded
- 1968
- Head coach
- Danny Buijs
Telstar
A small club from the IJmuiden area, formed in 1963 by a merger of VSV and Stormvogels. It returned to the Eredivisie in 2025 after 47 years away and finished its first season back in 14th place.
- City
- Velsen-Zuid, Netherlands
- Stadium
- BUKO Stadion
- Founded
- 1963
- Head coach
- Henk Brugge
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form · Head to head
Fortuna Sittard
- D@ Feyenoord1-1 · 10-31
- WExcelsior1-0 · 10-25
- D@ NEC Nijmegen2-2 · 10-18
- DFC Twente1-1 · 10-10
- W@ Willem II1-0 · 09-19
Telstar
- WFC Utrecht4-2 · 11-01
- L@ Go Ahead Eagles2-3 · 10-23
- LFeyenoord3-4 · 10-17
- DADO Den Haag2-2 · 10-11
- L@ AZ Alkmaar0-1 · 09-20
Fortuna Sittard 7 days rest · Telstar 6 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-03-08Fortuna Sittard 1-4 TelstarEredivisie
- 2025-09-14Telstar 1-3 Fortuna SittardEredivisie
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