Eredivisie · Matchday 11

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Ajax
WWDDW
1 - 0
HT 1-0
AZ Alkmaar
LDLWD

Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Ajax win 51%, draw 23%, AZ Alkmaar win 25%; the final score was 1:0.

Full time: Ajax 1-0 AZ Alkmaar. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Ajax" — correct.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultAjax51.3%most likely
Correct score1:06.5%#4 of 31
Total goals1 goals10.7%#5 of 8
Over/under 2.5Under 2.535.7%#2 of 2
Half-time/full-timeH/H31.7%most likely

A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Hit
Ajax
51%
Handicap 1X2 · Home -1Miss
AZ Alkmaar
49%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
20%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
43%
Half-time / full-timeHit
H/H
32%
Over / under 2.5Miss
Over
64%

The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Ajax (51%); expected goals Ajax 1.97 – 1.34 AZ Alkmaar.
  • Goals look likely: 3.31 expected in total, 64% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (10%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (32%).
  • Last five: Ajax WWDDW (3 wins), AZ Alkmaar LDLWD (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Ajax 51%Draw 23%AZ Alkmaar 25%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals · Ajax
1.97
Expected goals · AZ Alkmaar
1.34
Most likely score
1:1 (10%)
Half-time result
39% / 38% / 23%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2AjaxDrawAZ Alkmaar
Home -35.7%8.6%85.7%
Home -214.3%15.7%69.9%
Home -1≈30.1%21.2%48.7%
Home +174.5%14.3%11.2%
Home +288.8%7.4%3.8%
Home +396.2%2.8%1.1%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Ajax · Home
  • 1:06.5%
  • 2:07.1%
  • 2:19.5%
  • 3:04.6%
  • 3:16.2%
  • 3:24.2%
  • 4:02.3%
  • 4:13.1%
  • 4:22.1%
  • 5:00.9%
  • 5:11.2%
  • 5:20.8%
  • Other home win2.9%
Draw
  • 0:04.3%
  • 1:110.3%
  • 2:26.4%
  • 3:31.9%
  • Other draw0.3%
AZ Alkmaar · Away
  • 0:14.2%
  • 0:23.3%
  • 1:26.5%
  • 0:31.5%
  • 1:32.9%
  • 2:32.9%
  • 0:40.5%
  • 1:41.0%
  • 2:41.0%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.3%
  • 2:50.3%
  • Other away win1.1%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
4.3%
1
10.7%
2
20.7%
3
22.1%
4
18.3%
5
12.1%
6
6.7%
7+
5.2%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over84.9%64.3%42.2%23.9%
Under15.1%35.7%57.8%76.1%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
37.9%
Over, even
26.4%
Under, odd
10.7%
Under, even
25.0%

Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
64.3%
Both teams to score: No
35.7%
Clean-sheet probability · Ajax
26.1%
Clean-sheet probability · AZ Alkmaar
14.0%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Ajax14.0%27.5%27.1%31.4%
AZ Alkmaar26.1%35.0%23.6%15.3%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT →HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
31.7%
H/D
5.4%
H/A
2.1%
Draw
D/H
16.1%
D/D
12.4%
D/A
9.1%
Away
A/H
3.5%
A/D
5.4%
A/A
14.4%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Ajax

Amsterdam's record-champion club, known for its youth academy and possession-based attacking football.

City
Amsterdam, Netherlands
Stadium
Johan Cruijff ArenA
Founded
1900
Head coach
Míchel

AZ Alkmaar

Eredivisie club from Alkmaar, two-time Dutch champions (1980–81, 2008–09), known for youth development; finished 7th in 2025–26 and now coached by Lee-Roy Echteld.

City
Alkmaar, Netherlands
Stadium
AFAS Stadion
Founded
1967
Head coach
Lee-Roy Echteld

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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