Eredivisie Β· Matchday 12
Heerenveen vs Feyenoord prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives Heerenveen a 23% chance of winning, 22% for a draw and 55% for Feyenoord; the single most likely score is 1:1 (9%) with 3.51 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Medium- 1X2 (match result)
- Feyenoord
- 55%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home +1
- Heerenveen
- 45%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 1:2
- 19%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 41%
- Half-time / full-time
- A/A
- 36%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 68%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Heerenveen arrive with four wins from their last five league games, the exception a 0-2 defeat at PSV, and have a full squad available. Feyenoord are unbeaten in their last five (three wins, two draws), including a 5-0 against FC Utrecht and a 4-3 win at Telstar. Both sides have had eight days of rest. Feyenoord's defence has been missing the same names for weeks, though Van Bronckhorst reports no fresh injuries and Watanabe is fit to start.
The market consensus makes Feyenoord clear favourites: Heerenveen win 22%, draw 22%, Feyenoord win 56%. The published probabilities put expected goals at 1.33β2.17, with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 66%. The most likely scores are 1:2 (9%), 1:1 (9%) and 0:2 (7%).
Written Sat, Nov 7, 09:22 AM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour Feyenoord (55%); expected goals Heerenveen 1.34 β 2.16 Feyenoord.
- Goals look likely: 3.51 expected in total, 68% for over 2.5 and 66% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (9%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (36%).
- Last five: Heerenveen WWWLW (4 wins), Feyenoord DDWWW (3 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: Heerenveen 1 wins, 1 draws, Feyenoord 4 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 22 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· Heerenveen
- 1.34
- Expected goals Β· Feyenoord
- 2.16
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (9%)
- Half-time result
- 22% / 35% / 43%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Heerenveen | Draw | Feyenoord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.9% | 2.4% | 96.7% |
| Home -2 | 3.3% | 6.5% | 90.2% |
| Home -1 | 9.8% | 12.7% | 77.5% |
| Home +1β | 44.5% | 21.0% | 34.4% |
| Home +2 | 65.6% | 16.8% | 17.6% |
| Home +3 | 82.4% | 10.0% | 7.6% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:03.3%
- 2:02.7%
- 2:15.8%
- 3:01.2%
- 3:12.6%
- 3:22.8%
- 4:00.4%
- 4:10.9%
- 4:20.9%
- 5:00.1%
- 5:10.2%
- 5:20.3%
- Other home win1.2%
- 0:03.8%
- 1:19.5%
- 2:26.3%
- 3:32.0%
- Other draw0.4%
- 0:15.7%
- 0:27.0%
- 1:29.4%
- 0:35.1%
- 1:36.8%
- 2:34.6%
- 0:42.7%
- 1:43.7%
- 2:42.5%
- 0:51.2%
- 1:51.6%
- 2:51.1%
- Other away win4.1%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 87.2% | 68.0% | 46.5% | 27.6% |
| Under | 12.8% | 32.0% | 53.5% | 72.4% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 39.4%
- Over, even
- 28.6%
- Under, odd
- 9.0%
- Under, even
- 23.0%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 66.1%
- Both teams to score: No
- 33.9%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Heerenveen
- 11.5%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Feyenoord
- 26.1%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heerenveen | 26.1% | 35.1% | 23.5% | 15.3% |
| Feyenoord | 11.5% | 24.9% | 26.9% | 36.8% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 13.0% | H/D 5.3% | H/A 3.7% |
| Draw | D/H 7.7% | D/D 11.3% | D/A 15.9% |
| Away | A/H 1.9% | A/D 5.3% | A/A 35.9% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): Heerenveen 22.5% Β· Draw 22.0% Β· Feyenoord 55.5% Β· 2.5+ 68.0%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 4.27 | 4.42 | 1.72 | 3.25: 1.84 / 2.04 | +0.75: 1.98 / 1.91 |
| 1xBet | 4.38 | 4.33 | 1.71 | 3.5: 1.96 / 1.88 | +1.5: 1.52 / 2.62 |
| BetAnything | 4.23 | 4.40 | 1.70 | 3.5: 1.91 / 1.83 | +0.5: 2.12 / 1.70 |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.23 | 4.40 | 1.70 | 3.5: 1.93 / 1.83 | +0.5: 2.10 / 1.70 |
| Coolbet | 4.00 | 4.40 | 1.70 | 3.5: 1.98 / 1.80 | +1: 1.68 / 2.15 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.25 | 4.20 | 1.66 | 3.5: 1.91 / 1.83 | +1: 1.71 / 2.04 |
| Matchbook | 4.20 | 4.60 | 1.74 | 3.5: 2.06 / 1.87 | +0.75: 1.97 / 1.90 |
| Betsson | 4.23 | 4.14 | 1.69 | 2.5: 1.37 / 2.90 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 4.10 | 4.20 | 1.73 | 3.5: 1.89 / 1.79 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.10 | 3.95 | 1.62 | 3.5: 1.88 / 1.80 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 4.30 | 4.20 | 1.70 | 2.5: 1.38 / 2.94 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.60 | 3.5: 1.80 / 1.72 | β |
| Tipico | 4.30 | 4.30 | 1.65 | 3.5: 1.90 / 1.83 | β |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.60 | 4.50 | 1.71 | 3.5: 1.92 / 1.83 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 22 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the team news is mostly confirmation rather than surprise: Feyenoord's depleted defence has been missing the same names for weeks, Van Bronckhorst reports no fresh injuries and Watanabe is fit to start, while Heerenveen have a full squad and are riding four straight wins. The makeshift Feyenoord back line against an in-form Vente slightly strengthens the home case, but not enough to question the leaders' clear favouritism. With both sides conceding regularly, goals look likely.
- Heerenveen Β· Heerenveen coach Robin Veldman said on Friday that every player is fit, so there are no injuries or suspensions. Levi Smans is back after injury. (minor Β· feyenoordpings.nl)
- Feyenoord Β· Feyenoord are missing Gijs Smal (ankle), Jeremiah St. Juste (shin), Bart Nieuwkoop, Jordan Bos and Jakub Moder (knee), and Thomas Beelen (long-term). Van Bronckhorst reported no new injuries. (major Β· fr12.nl)
- Feyenoord Β· Defender Tsuyoshi Watanabe missed the Inter game with minor complaints but is fully fit and expected to start. Midfielder Oussama Targhalline was ill and trained individually on Friday, but is expected to be available. (minor Β· fr12.nl)
- Feyenoord Β· Reiss Nelson and Shaqueel van Persie are in the squad but not fit for 90 minutes, so they are likely to be substitutes only. (minor Β· feyenoord.headliner.nl)
- Feyenoord Β· Feyenoord are Eredivisie leaders and unbeaten, but have drawn their last two league games. They also come off a Champions League match against Inter on 3 November, and a draw would be a second straight league stumble. (moderate Β· news.bet365.nl)
- Heerenveen Β· Heerenveen have won four straight matches, and Dylan Vente has scored three goals in four games. (minor Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
Heerenveen
A Frisian club from northern Netherlands, a long-time Eredivisie regular known for developing young talent and for its loyal supporters.
- City
- Heerenveen, Netherlands
- Stadium
- Abe Lenstra Stadion
- Founded
- 1920
- Head coach
- Robin Veldman
Feyenoord
A historic Rotterdam club and one of the Netherlands' big three, known for passionate support and a red-and-white identity, and a regular Eredivisie title contender and European participant.
- City
- Rotterdam, Netherlands
- Stadium
- De Kuip (Stadion Feijenoord)
- Founded
- 1908
- Head coach
- Giovanni van Bronckhorst
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
Heerenveen
- WNEC Nijmegen1-0 Β· 10-31
- W@ ADO Den Haag3-2 Β· 10-24
- WExcelsior4-0 Β· 10-16
- L@ PSV0-2 Β· 10-09
- W@ Sparta Rotterdam4-0 Β· 09-19
Feyenoord
- DFortuna Sittard1-1 Β· 10-31
- D@ PSV1-1 Β· 10-25
- W@ Telstar4-3 Β· 10-17
- WAZ Alkmaar2-0 Β· 10-10
- WFC Utrecht5-0 Β· 09-20
Heerenveen 8 days rest Β· Feyenoord 8 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-01-11Heerenveen 2-2 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 2025-09-13Feyenoord 1-0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 2025-05-18Heerenveen 2-0 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 2024-11-23Feyenoord 3-0 HeerenveenEredivisie
- 2024-03-17Heerenveen 2-3 FeyenoordEredivisie
- 2023-09-16Feyenoord 6-1 HeerenveenEredivisie
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