Eredivisie · Matchday 11
Excelsior vs FC Twente prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): · Model data as of 2026-10-26
Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Excelsior win 16%, draw 20%, FC Twente win 63%; the final score was 0:9.
Full time: Excelsior 0-9 FC Twente. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "FC Twente" — correct.
Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result
| Market | Result | Pre-match probability | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full-time result | FC Twente | 63.1% | most likely |
| Correct score | 0:9 | 4.1% | outside the listed scores (pooled "other" cell) |
| Total goals | 7+ goals | 5.5% | #7 of 8 |
| Over/under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.1% | most likely |
| Half-time/full-time | A/A | 40.8% | most likely |
A single match says little about a forecast's quality — see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)Hit
- FC Twente
- 63%
- Handicap 1X2 · Home +1Hit
- FC Twente
- 41%
- Correct scoreMiss
- 1:2 / 1:1
- 19%
- Total goalsMiss
- 2 / 3 goals
- 42%
- Half-time / full-timeHit
- A/A
- 41%
- Over / under 2.5Hit
- Over
- 65%
The top choice for each market — for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
- The published probabilities favour FC Twente (63%); expected goals Excelsior 1.09 – 2.26 FC Twente.
- Goals look likely: 3.35 expected in total, 65% for over 2.5 and 60% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:2 (10%) — any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is A/A (41%).
- Last five: Excelsior LLLDL (0 wins), FC Twente WLDWW (3 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals · Excelsior
- 1.09
- Expected goals · FC Twente
- 2.26
- Most likely score
- 1:2 (10%)
- Half-time result
- 17% / 36% / 47%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | Excelsior | Draw | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 0.4% | 1.4% | 98.2% |
| Home -2 | 1.8% | 4.4% | 93.8% |
| Home -1 | 6.2% | 10.2% | 83.6% |
| Home +1≈ | 36.9% | 22.0% | 41.1% |
| Home +2 | 58.9% | 19.0% | 22.1% |
| Home +3 | 77.9% | 12.1% | 10.0% |
Model's balanced line: Home +1
Correct score
- 1:03.1%
- 2:02.1%
- 2:14.7%
- 3:00.8%
- 3:11.7%
- 3:21.9%
- 4:00.2%
- 4:10.5%
- 4:20.5%
- 5:00.0%
- 5:10.1%
- 5:20.1%
- Other home win0.6%
- 0:04.2%
- 1:19.3%
- 2:25.3%
- 3:31.5%
- Other draw0.2%
- 0:17.2%
- 0:29.0%
- 1:29.8%
- 0:36.8%
- 1:37.4%
- 2:34.0%
- 0:43.8%
- 1:44.2%
- 2:42.3%
- 0:51.7%
- 1:51.9%
- 2:51.0%
- Other away win4.1%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0–7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 85.4% | 65.1% | 43.1% | 24.7% |
| Under | 14.6% | 34.9% | 56.9% | 75.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 38.2%
- Over, even
- 26.9%
- Under, odd
- 10.4%
- Under, even
- 24.5%
Both teams to score · Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 60.1%
- Both teams to score: No
- 39.9%
- Clean-sheet probability · Excelsior
- 10.4%
- Clean-sheet probability · FC Twente
- 33.6%
Goals per team (0–3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior | 33.6% | 36.6% | 20.0% | 9.8% |
| FC Twente | 10.4% | 23.5% | 26.6% | 39.4% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT ↓ / FT → | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 8.9% | H/D 4.7% | H/A 3.7% |
| Draw | D/H 6.1% | D/D 11.2% | D/A 18.6% |
| Away | A/H 1.4% | A/D 4.7% | A/A 40.8% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Club profiles
Excelsior
Rotterdam club from the Kralingen district and a long-time Eredivisie side, known for its red-and-black colours, small home ground and a young squad.
- City
- Rotterdam, Netherlands
- Stadium
- Stadion Woudestein
- Founded
- 1902
- Head coach
- Ruben den Uil
FC Twente
Enschede-based Dutch club formed in 1965 and Eredivisie champions in 2010, which finished 4th in the Eredivisie in 2025–26.
- City
- Enschede, Netherlands
- Stadium
- De Grolsch Veste
- Founded
- 1965
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors — the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
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