Eredivisie Β· Matchday 11

Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT

Groningen
DLWWD
2 - 3
HT 2-2
Sparta Rotterdam
LWDLL

Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-10-26

Pre-match probabilities (computed from information available before kick-off): Groningen win 54%, draw 23%, Sparta Rotterdam win 23%; the final score was 2:3.

Full time: Groningen 2-3 Sparta Rotterdam. The pre-match pick (market consensus) was "Groningen" β€” missed.

Post-match check: pre-match probabilities vs the result

MarketResultPre-match probabilityRank
Full-time resultSparta Rotterdam23.0%#2 of 3
Correct score2:32.7%#15 of 31
Total goals5 goals12.5%#4 of 8
Over/under 2.5Over 2.565.6%most likely
Half-time/full-timeD/A8.2%#5 of 9

A single match says little about a forecast's quality β€” see the league track record for the full picture. Probabilities are for reference only.

AI picks

Market consensusConfidence: Medium
1X2 (match result)Miss
Groningen
54%
Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1Hit
Sparta Rotterdam
46%
Correct scoreMiss
1:1 / 2:1
20%
Total goalsMiss
2 / 3 goals
42%
Half-time / full-timeMiss
H/H
34%
Over / under 2.5Hit
Over
66%

The top choice for each market β€” for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.

Pre-match template read (from pre-match data)
  • The published probabilities favour Groningen (54%); expected goals Groningen 2.07 – 1.31 Sparta Rotterdam.
  • Goals look likely: 3.38 expected in total, 66% for over 2.5 and 65% for both teams to score.
  • The single most likely score is 1:1 (10%) β€” any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (34%).
  • Last five: Groningen DLWWD (2 wins), Sparta Rotterdam LWDLL (1 wins).

Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.

1X2 (match result)

Groningen 54%Draw 23%Sparta Rotterdam 23%

1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of the closing prices recorded for this match (football-data.co.uk) (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.

Expected goals Β· Groningen
2.07
Expected goals Β· Sparta Rotterdam
1.31
Most likely score
1:1 (10%)
Half-time result
41% / 37% / 22%

Handicap 1X2

Handicap 1X2GroningenDrawSparta Rotterdam
Home -36.8%9.6%83.6%
Home -216.4%16.6%67.0%
Home -1β‰ˆ33.0%21.2%45.8%
Home +177.0%13.1%9.9%
Home +290.1%6.6%3.3%
Home +396.7%2.4%0.9%

Model's balanced line: Home -1

Correct score

Groningen Β· Home
  • 1:06.2%
  • 2:07.3%
  • 2:19.6%
  • 3:05.1%
  • 3:16.6%
  • 3:24.3%
  • 4:02.6%
  • 4:13.4%
  • 4:22.2%
  • 5:01.1%
  • 5:11.4%
  • 5:20.9%
  • Other home win3.4%
Draw
  • 0:04.3%
  • 1:110.1%
  • 2:26.2%
  • 3:31.9%
  • Other draw0.4%
Sparta Rotterdam Β· Away
  • 0:13.6%
  • 0:22.9%
  • 1:26.0%
  • 0:31.3%
  • 1:32.6%
  • 2:32.7%
  • 0:40.4%
  • 1:40.9%
  • 2:40.9%
  • 0:50.1%
  • 1:50.2%
  • 2:50.2%
  • Other away win1.1%

Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".

Total goals (0–7+)

0
4.3%
1
9.8%
2
20.3%
3
21.9%
4
18.5%
5
12.5%
6
7.0%
7+
5.6%
Over / under1.52.53.54.5
Over85.9%65.6%43.7%25.2%
Under14.1%34.4%56.3%74.8%

Goals parity (3+ goals = over)

Over, odd
38.4%
Over, even
27.2%
Under, odd
9.8%
Under, even
24.5%

Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability

Both teams to score: Yes
64.6%
Both teams to score: No
35.4%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Groningen
27.1%
Clean-sheet probability Β· Sparta Rotterdam
12.6%

Goals per team (0–3+)

Team0123+
Groningen12.6%26.1%27.0%34.3%
Sparta Rotterdam27.1%35.4%23.1%14.4%

Half-time / full-time

HT ↓ / FT β†’HomeDrawAway
Home
H/H
34.0%
H/D
5.4%
H/A
1.9%
Draw
D/H
16.6%
D/D
12.1%
D/A
8.2%
Away
A/H
3.6%
A/D
5.4%
A/A
12.9%

First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).

Club profiles

Groningen

Founded in 1971 as the successor to GVAV, Groningen is the Eredivisie club of the northern Netherlands, nicknamed 'Trots van het Noorden', and finished 9th in 2025–26.

City
Groningen, Netherlands
Stadium
Euroborg
Founded
1971
Head coach
Dick Lukkien

Sparta Rotterdam

Rotterdam's oldest professional club, nicknamed the Castle Lords, who play at the 'Het Kasteel' stadium and finished 10th in the Eredivisie in 2025–26.

City
Rotterdam, Netherlands
Stadium
Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel
Founded
1888
Head coach
Rogier Meijer

Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β€” the clubs' own channels are authoritative.

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