Eredivisie Β· Matchday 12
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives AZ Alkmaar a 63% chance of winning, 20% for a draw and 17% for Groningen; the single most likely score is 2:1 (10%) with 3.44 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: High- 1X2 (match result)
- AZ Alkmaar
- 63%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1
- AZ Alkmaar
- 41%
- Correct score
- 2:1 / 1:1
- 19%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 41%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 41%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 67%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
AZ Alkmaar arrive in poor form, with one win in their last five matches (L 0-1 at Ajax, L 0-2 v FC Twente, D 2-2 at Cambuur, L 0-2 at Feyenoord, W 1-0 v Telstar). Reports point to a short turnaround after a midweek Europa League trip to Juventus, likely rotation, and absences including Resink, Hornkamp and Zoet, with Schouten possibly out too. Groningen have scored 14 and conceded 13 in their last five, and have injury problems of their own. They won 3-0 in March, though AZ took the two meetings before that.
The published probabilities, the market consensus of 21 bookmakers, make AZ clear favourites: home win 62%, draw 20%, Groningen win 17%. Expected goals are 2.29β1.15, and the likeliest scores are 2:1 (10%), 1:1 (9%) and 2:0 (8%). Over 2.5 goals stands at 67% and both teams scoring at 62%.
Written Sat, Nov 7, 02:26 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- The published probabilities favour AZ Alkmaar (63%); expected goals AZ Alkmaar 2.30 β 1.15 Groningen.
- Goals look likely: 3.44 expected in total, 67% for over 2.5 and 62% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 2:1 (10%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (41%).
- Last five: AZ Alkmaar LLDLW (1 wins), Groningen LDLWW (2 wins).
- Last 4 meetings in the dataset: AZ Alkmaar 2 wins, 1 draws, Groningen 1 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 22 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· AZ Alkmaar
- 2.30
- Expected goals Β· Groningen
- 1.15
- Most likely score
- 2:1 (10%)
- Half-time result
- 48% / 34% / 18%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Groningen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 10.1% | 12.0% | 78.0% |
| Home -2 | 22.0% | 18.7% | 59.3% |
| Home -1β | 40.7% | 21.8% | 37.5% |
| Home +1 | 82.7% | 10.6% | 6.7% |
| Home +2 | 93.3% | 4.7% | 2.0% |
| Home +3 | 98.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:06.8%
- 2:08.4%
- 2:19.7%
- 3:06.4%
- 3:17.4%
- 3:24.2%
- 4:03.7%
- 4:14.2%
- 4:22.4%
- 5:01.7%
- 5:11.9%
- 5:21.1%
- Other home win4.5%
- 0:03.7%
- 1:19.0%
- 2:25.6%
- 3:31.6%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:13.1%
- 0:22.1%
- 1:24.8%
- 0:30.8%
- 1:31.9%
- 2:32.1%
- 0:40.2%
- 1:40.5%
- 2:40.6%
- 0:50.1%
- 1:50.1%
- 2:50.1%
- Other away win0.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 86.4% | 66.9% | 45.1% | 26.4% |
| Under | 13.6% | 33.1% | 54.9% | 73.6% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 39.0%
- Over, even
- 27.9%
- Under, odd
- 9.9%
- Under, even
- 23.2%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 62.0%
- Both teams to score: No
- 38.0%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· AZ Alkmaar
- 31.7%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Groningen
- 10.1%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 10.1% | 23.1% | 26.5% | 40.3% |
| Groningen | 31.7% | 36.4% | 20.9% | 11.0% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 41.4% | H/D 4.7% | H/A 1.4% |
| Draw | D/H 17.4% | D/D 10.7% | D/A 6.2% |
| Away | A/H 3.7% | A/D 4.7% | A/A 9.7% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): AZ Alkmaar 62.5% Β· Draw 20.2% Β· Groningen 17.3% Β· 2.5+ 66.9%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.54 | 4.74 | 5.55 | 3.25: 1.88 / 1.98 | -1: 1.85 / 2.05 |
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 4.64 | 5.52 | 3.5: 2.00 / 1.85 | -1.5: 2.33 / 1.63 |
| BetAnything | 1.52 | 4.79 | 5.44 | 3.5: 2.10 / 1.71 | -1: 1.79 / 1.96 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.52 | 4.79 | 5.44 | 3.5: 2.06 / 1.71 | -1: 1.79 / 1.99 |
| Coolbet | 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.75 | 3.5: 2.03 / 1.76 | -1: 1.76 / 2.03 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.50 | 4.50 | 5.35 | 3.5: 1.94 / 1.80 | -1: 1.78 / 1.95 |
| Matchbook | 1.54 | 4.70 | 5.60 | 3.5: 2.10 / 1.78 | -1: 1.85 / 2.06 |
| Betsson | 1.51 | 4.54 | 5.37 | 2.5: 1.39 / 2.81 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 1.53 | 4.60 | 5.40 | 3.5: 1.96 / 1.72 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.40 | 4.60 | 5.60 | 3.5: 1.88 / 1.80 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 1.52 | 4.60 | 5.45 | 2.5: 1.40 / 2.85 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 1.38 | 4.50 | 5.50 | 3.5: 1.80 / 1.73 | β |
| Tipico | 1.47 | 4.80 | 5.50 | 3.5: 1.95 / 1.77 | β |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.45 | 5.25 | 6.50 | 3.5: 1.92 / 1.83 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 22 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
Claude's view is that the bookmakers already reflect most of what matters here: AZ's poor run and their midweek Europa League trip to Juventus are well known. The genuinely new details are the short three-day turnaround (our data wrongly shows eight days' rest), the likely rotation and the absences of Resink, Hornkamp, Zoet and possibly Schouten, which slightly dent AZ's edge. Groningen have their own injury problems and have been leaking goals against better sides, so AZ remain clear favourites in a match that still looks likely to produce goals.
- Groningen Β· Groningen will be without forward Ryan Metu and midfielder Travis Hernes through injury. (minor Β· fcgroningen.nl)
- Groningen Β· David van der Werff and Alvin Nordin are doubtful for Groningen. Coach Lukkien otherwise has a fully available squad, and Elvis van der Laan and Tyrique Mercera are back from injury. (moderate Β· fcgroningen.nl)
- AZ Alkmaar Β· AZ are out with Stije Resink (serious knee injury, not expected back before January), Jizz Hornkamp and goalkeeper Jeroen Zoet. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- AZ Alkmaar Β· Lewis Schouten is the main doubt after going off with a hamstring injury against Juventus. Wesley Hoedt replaced him and is tipped to start. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- AZ Alkmaar Β· AZ played Juventus in the Europa League on Thursday 5 November and lost 2-1. That is only 3 days' rest, not the 8 in our data, so rotation is likely. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- AZ Alkmaar Β· AZ are on a poor run, with one point from their last four league games and three defeats in a row in all competitions. They are fifth and are losing touch with the top. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Groningen Β· Groningen lost 3-2 at home to Sparta Rotterdam and also lost twice at home in three days. They have conceded 12 goals in three games against the current top four. (minor Β· fcgroningen.nl)
- AZ Alkmaar Β· Coach Echteld says AZ's underlying data is strong despite the results and expects Groningen to bring a lot of energy and running. (minor Β· voetbalprimeur.nl)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
AZ Alkmaar
Eredivisie club from Alkmaar, two-time Dutch champions (1980β81, 2008β09), known for youth development; finished 7th in 2025β26 and now coached by Lee-Roy Echteld.
- City
- Alkmaar, Netherlands
- Stadium
- AFAS Stadion
- Founded
- 1967
- Head coach
- Lee-Roy Echteld
Groningen
Founded in 1971 as the successor to GVAV, Groningen is the Eredivisie club of the northern Netherlands, nicknamed 'Trots van het Noorden', and finished 9th in 2025β26.
- City
- Groningen, Netherlands
- Stadium
- Euroborg
- Founded
- 1971
- Head coach
- Dick Lukkien
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
AZ Alkmaar
- L@ Ajax0-1 Β· 10-31
- LFC Twente0-2 Β· 10-25
- D@ Cambuur2-2 Β· 10-18
- L@ Feyenoord0-2 Β· 10-10
- WTelstar1-0 Β· 09-20
Groningen
- LSparta Rotterdam2-3 Β· 11-01
- D@ NEC Nijmegen2-2 Β· 10-25
- LAjax2-5 Β· 10-18
- W@ Excelsior5-1 Β· 10-11
- WPEC Zwolle3-0 Β· 09-18
AZ Alkmaar 8 days rest Β· Groningen 7 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-03-22Groningen 3-0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
- 2025-08-10AZ Alkmaar 4-1 GroningenEredivisie
- 2025-05-11AZ Alkmaar 3-0 GroningenEredivisie
- 2024-08-25Groningen 0-0 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: Eredivisie β