Eredivisie Β· Matchday 12
FC Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives FC Utrecht a 39% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 36% for NEC Nijmegen; the single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) with 3.27 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- FC Utrecht / NEC Nijmegen
- 75%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1
- NEC Nijmegen
- 61%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 20%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 43%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 24%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 63%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
Utrecht host NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie Round 12 with mixed recent form: two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five, scoring 8 and conceding 12, including a 0-5 loss at Feyenoord and a 2-4 loss at Telstar. NEC have drawn four of their last five and lost the other, with no win in that run, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Utrecht have had 7 days of rest and NEC 8. Utrecht won three of the last four meetings, most recently 3-1 away in February 2026.
The published probabilities show a tight contest: Utrecht 39%, draw 25%, NEC 36%. Expected goals are 1.66 to 1.58, with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 65%. The most likely scores are 1:1 (11%), 2:1 (9%) and 1:2 (8%). These figures blend our model with the consensus of 21 bookmakers.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 11:30 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- Evenly matched: FC Utrecht 39%, draw 25%, NEC Nijmegen 36% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- Goals look likely: 3.27 expected in total, 63% for over 2.5 and 66% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (11%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (24%).
- Last five: FC Utrecht LDWWL (2 wins), NEC Nijmegen LDDDD (0 wins).
- Last 6 meetings in the dataset: FC Utrecht 4 wins, 0 draws, NEC Nijmegen 2 wins.
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 21 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· FC Utrecht
- 1.67
- Expected goals Β· NEC Nijmegen
- 1.60
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (11%)
- Half-time result
- 32% / 37% / 30%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | FC Utrecht | Draw | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.9% | 5.5% | 91.6% |
| Home -2 | 8.4% | 11.9% | 79.6% |
| Home -1β | 20.4% | 18.6% | 61.0% |
| Home +1 | 64.1% | 17.8% | 18.2% |
| Home +2 | 81.8% | 10.9% | 7.2% |
| Home +3 | 92.8% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:05.4%
- 2:05.3%
- 2:18.5%
- 3:03.0%
- 3:14.7%
- 3:23.8%
- 4:01.2%
- 4:12.0%
- 4:21.6%
- 5:00.4%
- 5:10.7%
- 5:20.5%
- Other home win2.0%
- 0:04.8%
- 1:111.1%
- 2:26.8%
- 3:32.0%
- Other draw0.4%
- 0:15.1%
- 0:24.9%
- 1:28.1%
- 0:32.6%
- 1:34.3%
- 2:33.6%
- 0:41.0%
- 1:41.7%
- 2:41.4%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.6%
- 2:50.5%
- Other away win1.8%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 84.7% | 63.4% | 41.2% | 23.1% |
| Under | 15.3% | 36.6% | 58.8% | 76.9% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 37.5%
- Over, even
- 25.9%
- Under, odd
- 10.6%
- Under, even
- 26.1%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 65.7%
- Both teams to score: No
- 34.3%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· FC Utrecht
- 20.3%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· NEC Nijmegen
- 18.8%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht | 18.8% | 31.4% | 26.2% | 23.5% |
| NEC Nijmegen | 20.3% | 32.3% | 25.8% | 21.6% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 23.7% | H/D 5.9% | H/A 2.6% |
| Draw | D/H 12.5% | D/D 13.2% | D/A 11.7% |
| Away | A/H 2.8% | A/D 5.9% | A/A 21.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): FC Utrecht 39.0% Β· Draw 25.1% Β· NEC Nijmegen 35.9% Β· 2.5+ 63.4%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.44 | 3.86 | 2.64 | 3.25: 2.01 / 1.85 | 0: 1.86 / 2.01 |
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.90 | 2.63 | 3.5: 2.23 / 1.69 | 0: 1.86 / 1.98 |
| BetAnything | 2.43 | 3.83 | 2.65 | 3: 1.74 / 2.05 | 0: 1.81 / 1.93 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.43 | 3.83 | 2.65 | 3: 1.74 / 2.03 | 0: 1.81 / 1.97 |
| Coolbet | 2.40 | 3.85 | 2.55 | 3: 1.71 / 2.10 | -1: 3.67 / 1.27 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.39 | 3.78 | 2.55 | 3.5: 2.17 / 1.64 | 0: 1.81 / 1.92 |
| Betsson | 2.44 | 3.58 | 2.63 | 2.5: 1.47 / 2.53 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 2.41 | 3.70 | 2.65 | 3.5: 2.14 / 1.60 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.32 | 3.50 | 2.50 | 3.5: 2.12 / 1.63 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 2.48 | 3.60 | 2.65 | 2.5: 1.48 / 2.56 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.48 | 3.5: 2.02 / 1.55 | β |
| Tipico | 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.70 | 3.5: 2.10 / 1.67 | β |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.50 | 3.90 | 2.70 | 3.5: 2.17 / 1.66 | β |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.40 | 3.70 | 2.60 | 3.5: 2.17 / 1.66 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 21 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Club profiles
FC Utrecht
Founded in 1970 through a merger of local clubs, Utrecht have never been relegated from the Eredivisie.
- City
- Utrecht, Netherlands
- Stadium
- Stadion Galgenwaard
- Founded
- 1970
- Head coach
- Anthony Correia
NEC Nijmegen
NEC is an Eredivisie club from Nijmegen that has become a regular European qualifier in recent seasons.
- City
- Nijmegen, Netherlands
- Stadium
- Goffertstadion
- Founded
- 1900
- Head coach
- Dick Schreuder
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
FC Utrecht
- L@ Telstar2-4 Β· 11-01
- DPEC Zwolle1-1 Β· 10-24
- W@ FC Twente2-1 Β· 10-18
- WWillem II3-1 Β· 10-11
- L@ Feyenoord0-5 Β· 09-20
NEC Nijmegen
- L@ Heerenveen0-1 Β· 10-31
- DGroningen2-2 Β· 10-25
- DFortuna Sittard2-2 Β· 10-18
- D@ Ajax1-1 Β· 10-10
- DGo Ahead Eagles1-1 Β· 09-20
FC Utrecht 7 days rest Β· NEC Nijmegen 8 days rest
Head to head
- 2026-02-11NEC Nijmegen 1-3 FC UtrechtEredivisie
- 2025-11-02FC Utrecht 1-0 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 2025-03-15FC Utrecht 0-1 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 2024-11-24NEC Nijmegen 1-2 FC UtrechtEredivisie
- 2024-03-17FC Utrecht 1-0 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- 2023-09-23NEC Nijmegen 3-0 FC UtrechtEredivisie
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: Eredivisie β