Eredivisie Β· Matchday 12
ADO Den Haag vs Sparta Rotterdam prediction: 1X2, correct score, goals, HT/FT
Kick-off (UTC): Β· Model data as of 2026-11-07
Our forecast gives ADO Den Haag a 38% chance of winning, 26% for a draw and 36% for Sparta Rotterdam; the single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) with 3.13 total goals expected.
AI picks
Market consensusConfidence: Low (upset risk)- 1X2 (match result)
- ADO Den Haag / Sparta Rotterdam
- 74%
- Handicap 1X2 Β· Home -1
- Sparta Rotterdam
- 62%
- Correct score
- 1:1 / 2:1
- 20%
- Total goals
- 2 / 3 goals
- 45%
- Half-time / full-time
- H/H
- 23%
- Over / under 2.5
- Over
- 61%
The top choice for each market β for reference only, no guarantee; any bet you place on it is at your own risk. For matches with bookmaker prices the pick equals the top option of the margin-free market consensus; without prices it is the statistical model.
AI pre-match analysis (written by Claude)
ADO Den Haag arrive in Eredivisie Round 12 with mixed form: a 0-1 loss at PEC Zwolle and a 2-3 home defeat to Heerenveen, either side of a 2-1 home win over PSV and draws with Telstar (2-2) and Cambuur (1-1). Sparta Rotterdam have won 3-2 at Groningen and 3-2 against Willem II, but also lost 0-4 to Heerenveen, and reports say they have gone 12 games without a clean sheet. Both sides have had 6 days of rest, and there are no recent meetings in our data.
The probabilities, a blend of our model and the consensus of 22 bookmakers, make this very close: ADO win 38%, draw 26%, Sparta win 36%. Expected goals are 1.58β1.53, with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The most likely scores are 1:1 (12%), 2:1 (9%) and 1:2 (8%), which points to an open game with goals at both ends.
Written Fri, Nov 6, 10:42 PM UTC from the data and prices on this page at that time; prices may have moved since.
Written automatically from the data on this page and the pre-match intel. For information only.
Probability data read (template)
- Evenly matched: ADO Den Haag 38%, draw 26%, Sparta Rotterdam 36% β no clear lean from the probabilities.
- Goals look likely: 3.13 expected in total, 61% for over 2.5 and 64% for both teams to score.
- The single most likely score is 1:1 (12%) β any exact score is a long shot by nature; the likeliest HT/FT path is H/H (23%).
- Last five: ADO Den Haag LLWDD (1 wins), Sparta Rotterdam WLWDL (2 wins).
Probabilities include the bookmaker consensus, which already reflects public team news; the statistical-model part uses results, scores and the closing prices of past matches, not team news directly. Check official club news before kick-off.
1X2 (match result)
1X2 and over/under 2.5 on this page equal the margin-free consensus of 22 bookmakers (the backtest found the market more accurate than our model, so the model weight is currently 0); every other market comes from the same score matrix.
- Expected goals Β· ADO Den Haag
- 1.59
- Expected goals Β· Sparta Rotterdam
- 1.55
- Most likely score
- 1:1 (12%)
- Half-time result
- 31% / 39% / 30%
Handicap 1X2
| Handicap 1X2 | ADO Den Haag | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home -3 | 2.6% | 5.2% | 92.3% |
| Home -2 | 7.7% | 11.6% | 80.7% |
| Home -1β | 19.3% | 18.5% | 62.2% |
| Home +1 | 63.9% | 18.0% | 18.1% |
| Home +2 | 81.9% | 11.0% | 7.1% |
| Home +3 | 92.9% | 4.8% | 2.3% |
Model's balanced line: Home -1
Correct score
- 1:05.7%
- 2:05.5%
- 2:18.5%
- 3:02.9%
- 3:14.5%
- 3:23.5%
- 4:01.1%
- 4:11.8%
- 4:21.4%
- 5:00.4%
- 5:10.6%
- 5:20.4%
- Other home win1.6%
- 0:05.6%
- 1:111.9%
- 2:26.6%
- 3:31.8%
- Other draw0.3%
- 0:15.5%
- 0:25.2%
- 1:28.3%
- 0:32.7%
- 1:34.3%
- 2:33.4%
- 0:41.0%
- 1:41.6%
- 2:41.3%
- 0:50.3%
- 1:50.5%
- 2:50.4%
- Other away win1.5%
Scores outside the grid are pooled into "other home win / draw / away win".
Total goals (0β7+)
| Over / under | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 83.2% | 60.6% | 38.2% | 20.7% |
| Under | 16.8% | 39.4% | 61.8% | 79.3% |
Goals parity (3+ goals = over)
- Over, odd
- 36.2%
- Over, even
- 24.3%
- Under, odd
- 11.2%
- Under, even
- 28.2%
Both teams to score Β· Clean-sheet probability
- Both teams to score: Yes
- 63.8%
- Both teams to score: No
- 36.2%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· ADO Den Haag
- 21.3%
- Clean-sheet probability Β· Sparta Rotterdam
- 20.5%
Goals per team (0β3+)
| Team | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 20.5% | 32.5% | 25.7% | 21.3% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 21.3% | 32.9% | 25.5% | 20.3% |
Half-time / full-time
| HT β / FT β | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home | H/H 22.7% | H/D 6.0% | H/A 2.5% |
| Draw | D/H 12.4% | D/D 14.2% | D/A 11.9% |
| Away | A/H 2.6% | A/D 6.0% | A/A 21.6% |
First letter = half-time result, second = full-time result (H home, D draw, A away).
Bookmaker odds (EU region)
Market consensus (margin removed): ADO Den Haag 37.8% Β· Draw 26.2% Β· Sparta Rotterdam 36.1% Β· 2.5+ 60.6%
| Bookmaker | Home | Draw | Away | Over/Under | Asian handicap (home) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.56 | 3.74 | 2.68 | 3: 1.92 / 1.96 | 0: 1.91 / 2.00 |
| 1xBet | 2.51 | 3.65 | 2.71 | 3.5: 2.35 / 1.57 | 0: 1.85 / 1.99 |
| BetAnything | 2.56 | 3.69 | 2.68 | 3: 1.91 / 1.83 | 0: 1.88 / 1.85 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.56 | 3.69 | 2.68 | 3: 1.91 / 1.94 | 0: 1.88 / 1.96 |
| Coolbet | 2.45 | 3.75 | 2.60 | 3: 1.87 / 1.90 | -1: 3.80 / 1.25 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.43 | 3.54 | 2.62 | 2.5: 1.55 / 2.35 | 0: 1.80 / 1.93 |
| Matchbook | 2.60 | 3.80 | 2.70 | 3.5: 2.50 / 1.61 | 0: 1.91 / 2.00 |
| Betsson | 2.49 | 3.57 | 2.58 | 2.5: 1.52 / 2.39 | β |
| Codere (IT) | 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.65 | 3.5: 2.25 / 1.55 | β |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.43 | 3.40 | 2.43 | 3.5: 2.30 / 1.53 | β |
| Nordic Bet | 2.52 | 3.60 | 2.62 | 2.5: 1.54 / 2.42 | β |
| PMU (FR) | 2.40 | 3.35 | 2.40 | 3.5: 2.20 / 1.47 | β |
| Tipico | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.60 | 3.5: 2.25 / 1.60 | β |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.63 | 3.75 | 2.63 | 3.5: 2.35 / 1.56 | β |
Odds updated: Sat, Nov 7, 04:20 PM UTC
Showing the 14 most-covered bookmakers of the 22 in the consensus.
Prices from European bookmakers via The Odds API, refreshed about every 2 hours. Shown for information only β not betting advice. GoalPulse links to no bookmaker and sells no bets.
Claude pre-match intel
Claude's independent view from a web search, part of a public test β it does not change the probabilities on this page.
This looks a genuinely open game between a struggling ADO side at a sold-out home ground and a leaky Sparta team that keeps winning shoot-outs. With both teams fully rested and no fresh, unpriced team news, we stay in line with the bookmaker consensus: a slight home lean, and a clear tilt towards over 2.5 goals given Sparta's 12-game run without a clean sheet.
- ADO Den Haag Β· Luka Reischl (groin) last played on matchday five and is not expected to feature. (minor Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Sparta Rotterdam Β· Jens Toornstra was substituted 10 minutes into the second half at Groningen and is a doubt. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- ADO Den Haag Β· ADO have lost three league games in a row, most recently 0-1 at PEC Zwolle. They are 17th with 6 points, and a win would put them six points clear of relegation danger. (moderate Β· sportsmole.co.uk)
- Sparta Rotterdam Β· Sparta are on 12 points after winning 3-2 at Groningen. They have gone 12 competitive games without a clean sheet and conceded 26 goals in 11 league games. (moderate Β· whoscored.com)
- ADO Den Haag Β· The WerkTalent Stadion is reported sold out for the Saturday evening game. Neither team has midweek European or cup fixtures, and both have had 6 rest days. (minor Β· headliner.nl)
Collected by Claude with web search and may contain mistakes β check official club news. The intel does not change the probabilities on this page; it is part of a public test of whether it can beat the market.
Club profiles
ADO Den Haag
The Hague's traditional club, which won the 2025β26 Eerste Divisie under Robin Peter's high-intensity approach to earn promotion back to the Eredivisie.
- City
- The Hague, Netherlands
- Stadium
- WerkTalent Stadion
- Founded
- 1905
- Head coach
- Robin Peter
Sparta Rotterdam
Rotterdam's oldest professional club, nicknamed the Castle Lords, who play at the 'Het Kasteel' stadium and finished 10th in the Eredivisie in 2025β26.
- City
- Rotterdam, Netherlands
- Stadium
- Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel
- Founded
- 1888
- Head coach
- Rogier Meijer
Compiled by Claude with a web search (checked 2026-11-06); may contain errors β the clubs' own channels are authoritative.
Recent form Β· Head to head
ADO Den Haag
- L@ PEC Zwolle0-1 Β· 11-01
- LHeerenveen2-3 Β· 10-24
- WPSV2-1 Β· 10-17
- D@ Telstar2-2 Β· 10-11
- DCambuur1-1 Β· 09-19
Sparta Rotterdam
- W@ Groningen3-2 Β· 11-01
- LAjax1-2 Β· 10-25
- WWillem II3-2 Β· 10-17
- D@ Go Ahead Eagles3-3 Β· 10-10
- LHeerenveen0-4 Β· 09-19
ADO Den Haag 6 days rest Β· Sparta Rotterdam 6 days rest
Head to head
No recent meetings in the dataset.
Market & China Sports Lottery guide β Β· League page: Eredivisie β